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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2715
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
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RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1576
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6678

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 002004 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT BEGINS DEBATING CONFIDENCE MOTION, 
RESULT STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The first day of the two-day special 
session of parliament opened on July 21 and will culminate in 
the confidence vote late on July 22 that will determine the 
future of the Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) coalition government and its ability to advance the 
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative.  The 
commencement of the special session followed a tumultuous 
July 19-20 weekend during which the government experienced at 
least a dozen discrete gains and losses, as undecided parties 
declared positions, ambivalent parties issued whips to 
prevent fragmentation, and individual members were picked off 
by rival camps.  On July 21, media outlets reported differing 
totals for each camp.  No clear consensus has emerged.  As of 
July 21, Post's best estimates are 262 votes in favor of the 
UPA government and the nuclear initiative, 265 against, and 2 
confirmed abstentions, with 13 remaining undecided.  (No more 
than 271 votes will be required for a majority, likely less 
due to absences and abstentions.)  Also as of July 21, 
thirteen MPs remained undecided.  Post believes eleven are 
leaning toward supporting the UPA government -- either by 
direct vote or by abstaining -- while two are leaning 
against. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED.  Talk around town over the July 
19-20 weekend focused on Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader 
Mayawati's efforts to project herself as the anti-government 
icon, leading to speculation that should the UPA government 
fall, Mayawati's closed-door dealings could win her the right 
to claim the Prime Minister's office in some sort of third 
front government without holding early elections.  Local 
media searched out every source available to discern trends 
in the shifting alliances, sparking an unfounded rumor that 
the Prime Minister would resign.  One Congress Party 
spokesman claimed that as many as 15 BJP representatives 
would abstain out of fear that Mayawati would somehow cobble 
together enough support to become Prime Minister should the 
UPA fall.  Another well-placed source in Congress said that 
the chances are nil that a caretaker government would proceed 
with the deal.  In parliament, Prime Minister Singh took the 
high ground by defending the record of his four-plus year 
government, opposition leader Advani assailed the Prime 
Minister for failure on all counts, and Foreign Minister 
Mukherjee defended the nuclear initiative.  Other speakers 
from the Left, Samajwadi Party, and Mayawati's BSP crowed 
familiar lines, followed by representatives of more obscure 
parties who raised a litany of issues, some unrelated to the 
confidence motion.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Lots of Changes, But Little Clear Direction 
- - - 
 
¶3. (SBU) Furious political bargaining ensued over the July 
19-20 weekend with several small parties declaring their 
positions ahead of the start of the special session of 
parliament on July 21 followed by the confidence vote on July 
¶22.  No clear consensus has emerged.  As of July 21, Post's 
best estimates are 262 votes in favor of the UPA government 
and the nuclear initiative, 265 against, and 2 confirmed 
abstentions, with 13 undecided.  (With 543 occupied Lok Sabha 
seats and two confirmed abstentions, no more than 271 votes 
will be required for a majority, likely to be further reduced 
by absences and abstentions; in the event of a tie, Speaker 
Chatterjee would presumably vote with the opposition.)  These 
estimates represent a net gain of three votes for the UPA and 
10 votes for the opposition since July 18.  The large gain 
for the opposition came from the previously undecided Shiv 
Sena, which officially declared for the opposition.  However, 
media speculated that at least one, if not more, of the Shiv 
Sena's twelve MPs may abstain.  Smaller gains and losses of a 
few MPs emerged throughout the weekend as undecided parties 
declared positions, ambivalent parties issued whips to 
prevent fragmentation, and individual members were picked off 
by rival camps.  On July 21, media outlets reported differing 
totals for each camp with no clear winner.  (The highly 
dynamic political landscape is illustrated by at least a 
dozen discrete shifts over the last two days, described in 
detail in paragraph 13.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) As of July 21, thirteen MPs remained undecided. 
Post believes eleven are leaning towards support for the UPA 
while two are leaning against.  The support from those 
favoring the government could take the form of either a vote 
 
NEW DELHI 00002004  002 OF 005 
 
 
for the UPA or an abstention.  (Paragraph 14 includes a 
detailed break-out of undecided MPs.) 
 
Politically Charged Atmosphere in Delhi 
- - - 
 
¶5. (U) High political drama seized Delhi over the July 19-20 
weekend as MPs of all stripes exercised their leverage to 
gain as much power as possible.  Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister 
and Bahujan Samaj Party  (BSP) leader Mayawati held meetings 
with several undeclared parties and emerged as a strong voice 
against the UPA government.  Her standing as a leader of 
opposition nearly eclipsed that of the UPA's two main 
enemies, L.K Advani's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the 
Left parties, led by communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) 
general secretary Prakash Karat.  There was even speculation 
that should the UPA government fall, Mayawati's closed-door 
dealings could win her a claim on the Prime Minister's office 
in some sort of third front government without holding early 
elections. 
 
¶6. (U) Local media searched out every source available to 
discern trends in the shifting alliances.  The thinly sourced 
reporting included numerous false claims of support or lack 
thereof for both sides.  On July 19, an unfounded rumor 
circulated that the Prime Minister would resign.  The press 
was -- and continues to be -- awash with bold statements from 
opposing camps that the UPA would sail through the trust vote 
or go down like a sinking ship.  To bolster their numbers, 
the BJP even flew back a former film star-turned-MP from knee 
surgery in the U.S. in order to vote against the government. 
The media reported several stories of MPs who will be brought 
from hospitals, against their doctors' advice, to cast their 
votes.  With neither side with a clear majority, post expects 
media speculation to run rampant until the votes are counted. 
 
 
¶7. (U) On July 20, Prime Minister Singh and opposition leader 
Advani held dueling dinners for their supporters.  Media 
counted eight absent BJP MPs, one of whom attended the UPA 
dinner.  Four others were reportedly in ill health, but the 
absence of three others has fueled speculation that 
significant numbers of BJP members may abstain on July 22.  A 
senior Congress Party official claimed to PolCouns on July 21 
that as many as 15 BJP representatives would abstain out of 
fear that Mayawati would somehow cobble together enough 
support to become Prime Minister should the UPA fall. 
Another well-placed Congress leader told PolCouns on July 21 
that "the chances are nil" that a caretaker government would 
proceed with the nuclear initiative if the UPA government 
loses the confidence vote. 
 
Inside Parliament:  A Taste of the Speeches 
- - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) The scheduled 16-hour special session of parliament 
opened at 11:00 and dominated local media coverage.  Prime 
Minister Singh took the high ground by defending the record 
of his four-plus year government, opposition leader Advani 
assailed the Prime Minister for failure on all counts, and 
Foreign Minister Mukherjee defended the nuclear initiative. 
Other speakers from the Left, Samajwadi Party, and Mayawati's 
BSP crowed familiar lines, followed by representatives of 
more obscure parties who raised a litany of issues, some 
unrelated to the confidence motion.  During breaks in the 
session, media focused on Speaker Chatterjee's "defiance" of 
his party by remaining in the chair, footage of the Shiv Sena 
MPs sitting together in a group, and JMM leader Shibu Soren 
sleeping during the debate. 
 
¶9. (U) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh opened the debate by 
moving a one-line confidence motion:  "That this House 
expresses its confidence in the Council of Ministers."  He 
praised left leaders Jyoti Basu and Harkishan Singh Surjeet, 
along with current UPA leaders and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister 
Karunanidhi as being the architects of the UPA government, 
which has so far governed for four years and 2 months.  He 
avoided mentioning current CPM leaders like Prakash Karat and 
Sitaram Yechury.  The Prime Minister listed some of the 
achievements of his government and commented about rising 
inflation, but only glancingly touched on the nuclear 
initiative. 
 
NEW DELHI 00002004  003 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) In an hour-long speech, opposition BJP leader L.K. 
Advani charged the government with failure on all counts and 
for presiding over four years of "misrule."  He covered a 
range of issues including internal security and inflation. 
Advani emphasized that it was the government that had called 
for the confidence vote after losing the support of its own 
partners over the nuclear initiative.  Advani said he was 
neither against nuclear energy nor against a "strategic 
relationship" with the U.S. (or Japan or Russia), but said, 
"We would not like India to be a party to an agreement which 
is unequal," adding that the India-U.S. nuclear deal makes 
India a "subservient partner."  Advani made it clear that his 
party would "renegotiate" the nuclear deal and seek a 
constitutional amendment so that no international agreement 
could be carried out by any government without the 
concurrence of parliament.  Advani said it was neither the 
opposition BJP nor the Left parties that were responsible for 
the present crisis, but the UPA itself.  Advani also took a 
swipe at the Prime Minister, saying, "Without the Congress 
president's (Sonia Gandhi) approval, you will not take a 
single step."  Advani's charge that Manmohan Singh had not 
supported the BJP government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari 
Vajpayee when it executed the Pokharan nuclear tests in 1998 
drew a sharp response from Prime Minister Singh, who disputed 
the comment and asked that it be "substantiated" as well as a 
rebuke from Speaker Chatterjee, who said that Advani "should 
know better" than to reveal specifics of a 1998 Raya Sabha 
debate.  Advani was interrupted by MPs from the Congress 
Party and others several times despite attempts by Speaker 
Chatterjee to restore order.  Advani blamed the UPA 
government for side-tracking important issues like terrorism. 
He pointed out to serial blasts in Mumbai, Malegaon, 
Hyderabad and Jaipur and terror attacks in Jammu and Varansi 
in recent months. 
 
¶11. (U) Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee defended the 
government and the need for the deal, calling the Prime 
Minister "visionary."  He said that it was the need of the 
hour for India to seek alternative energy and that mining of 
uranium in the northeast could not be carried out for various 
reasons.  He said that the nuclear deal would be a "visa to 
the nuclear club," reminding the parliament that the nuclear 
initiative would not only facilitate nuclear commerce with 
the U.S. but also with other members of the international 
community.  Mukherjee expressed disbelief that parliament was 
willing to bring down a government that "brought about 9 
percent growth." 
 
¶12. (U) Mohammad Salim of the CPI-M took the floor next and 
charged the government with deviating from the Common Minimum 
Program.  He said that the government was very keen on the 
deal but little bothered about burning issues such as 
inflation.  He said that the Left could never support a 
government that was giving up national sovereignty by 
becoming a junior partner of the U.S.  Ram Gopal Verma of the 
Samajwadi Party (SP) said that the deal was in India's 
interest. He called upon the members to rise above petty 
political considerations and vote in India's national 
interest. He finally made an appeal to members to vote at 
least for their self interest to save their seats until the 
term of this House runs out.  BSP representative Brajesh 
Pathak charged the UPA government with mortgaging the country 
to the U.S. 
 
Further Detail:  A Dozen Shifting Positions 
- - - 
 
¶13. (SBU) The highly dynamic political landscape is 
illustrated by at least a dozen discrete shifts over the last 
two days, as follows: 
 
-- Lok Sabha Speaker and CPI-M member Somnath Chatterjee has 
refused calls from within his party to resign, saying his 
position in the Lok Sabha is "above politics."  Chatterjee 
will vote last, most likely abstaining, but would presumably 
cast the decisive vote against the UPA in solidarity with his 
party in the event of a tie. 
 
-- Samajwadi Party member S.P. Singh Bhaghel formally 
declared his intent to vote against the UPA government 
calling the nuclear deal "anti-Muslim."  Atteq Ahmad, one of 
 
NEW DELHI 00002004  004 OF 005 
 
 
the jailed Samajwadi Party members, stated that he is 
undecided.  Both he and Afzal Ansari, the other jailed SP 
member, are weighing their options.  Should they desert the 
SP their likely home is Mayawati's BSP. 
 
-- Rebel Dravida Munnetra Kashagam (DMK) MP Thiru Maran, who 
had previously said he would abstain, announced he will vote 
for the UPA.  The DMK is a UPA supporter, but Maran had 
strayed from the party because of a falling-out with DMK 
leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi for 
reasons based in local Tamil Nadu politics. 
 
-- Of the three Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) MPs, one had 
already declared against the government.  On July 20, JD-S 
leader Deve Gowda emerged from a meeting with BSP chief 
Mayawati and stated that the remaining two MPs would likewise 
vote against the UPA.  Both leaders appeared to be 
pre-positioning for the next national elections. 
 
--  After meeting with the Prime Minister over the weekend, 
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Shibu Soren officially 
declared that his party's five MPs will vote for the UPA 
government.  Soren's support was finally sealed with a 
Cabinet berth for himself along with other inducements. 
 
-- In a turnabout, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh 
declared that his party's three MPs would vote against the 
UPA government.  After meeting with Uttar Pradesh Chief 
Minister and BSP leader Mayawati, the UP-based Singh reversed 
his stance in what appears to be political positioning for 
the coming national elections. 
 
-- BJP member Bhushan Sharan from Uttar Pradesh stated his 
intention to defect from the party in favor of the Samajwadi 
Party due to local considerations and vote for the 
government.  A suspended BJP member from Gujarat, Somabhai 
Patel, has reportedly switched allegiances and will vote for 
the UPA government, but Post believes his decision will not 
be made until the last minute. 
 
-- One of eight Janata Dal-United (JDU) MPs, Ramswaroop 
Prasad, confirmed his support for the UPA while another, 
Pookunhi Koya, is wavering.  Both MPs stand to lose their 
seats because of redistricting which made them soft targets 
for the UPA government. 
 
-- The Shiv Sena, which supports the nuclear initiative but 
works closely with the BJP in Maharashtra, announced its 
intention to vote against the UPA government, however not all 
of its members attended the solidarity dinner hosted by BJP 
leader L.K. Advani.  Media speculated that at least one, and 
possibly more, Shiv Sena members may yet abstain. 
 
-- Cracks appeared over the weekend in the Telangana Rashtra 
Samithi (TRS), with dissident MP A. Narendra telling the 
press he is considering voting for the UPA.  Previously, all 
three TRS members had stated opposition to the government 
unless they moved forward with Telangana statehood, which is 
a non-starter for the UPA government. 
 
-- As with most of the independents and one-MP parties, the 
Mizo National Front (MNF) will hold its decision until the 
last minute.  Post had thought the MNF would vote against the 
UPA, but he remains undecided. 
 
-- Mamata Bannerjee, the sole representative of the All India 
Trinamool Congress (AITC), announced her intention to abstain 
on July 21.  Bannerjee is a BJP supporter and served as a 
minister in the previous NDA government.  However, she 
loathes the Left and her abstention was the most expedient 
middle ground. 
 
The Fence-Sitters:  13 Key Votes 
- - - 
 
¶14. (SBU) The following is a detailed breakout of the 13 
undecided MPs: 
 
-- Two Samajwadi Party members remain on the fence, Afzal 
Ansari and Ateeq Ahmad, both from Uttar Pradesh and both in 
jail.  They will hold out until for the best possible deal. 
If they defect, it will be to Mayawati's BSP. 
 
NEW DELHI 00002004  005 OF 005 
 
 
 
-- Embassy contacts report that the Jammu and Kashmir 
National Conference's (J&KNC) two MPs will either vote for 
the UPA or abstain, but are unlikely to vote against the 
government.  Party officials told Embassy staff their hopes 
of forming a government following state elections in October 
depend upon a coalition with the Congress Party. 
 
-- Suspended BJP MP Somabhai Patel has been wavering in his 
support for the BJP for local political reason in Gujarat and 
could be picked off by the UPA. 
 
-- Pookunhi Koya, JDU member from Lakshadweep is also 
wavering for local political reasons and could bolt.  Some 
media have already placed him in the UPA camp with the other 
JDU rebel, Ramswaroop Prasad, but Post believes he remains 
undecided. 
 
-- Jailed BSP member Umarkant Yadav remains undecided, but 
contacts report he is leaning toward supporting the UPA, 
partly because his own party boss, Mayawati, arranged for his 
arrest when she summoned him to her house. 
 
-- A senior Congress Party floor manager told PolCouns on 
July 21 that five Independents MPs remain undecided, with 
four leaning toward supporting the UPA government and one 
against.  The potential supporters include Wangyuh Konyak 
from Nagaland, Thupstan Chhewang from Jammu and Kashmir, who 
is negotiating for Union Territory Status for Ladakh and 
Sansuma Bwiswmuthiary from Assam, who is holding out for 
assurances of development projects for his constituency, and 
Mani Charenamei from Manipur, who supports an increase in the 
size of the state of Nagaland.  Vanlalzawma from Mizoram is 
leaning toward opposing the government. 
 
-- Dissident TRS MP A. Narendra told the press on July 20 he 
is considering voting for the UPA.  Previously, he had been 
against the government, but Consulate Chennai reports 
Narendra, though undecided, may be leaning toward support for 
the UPA. 
 
 
WHITE