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Viewing cable 08NEWDELHI1959, MENON HOSTS NSG AND IAEA REPRESENTATIVES TO PUSH

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08NEWDELHI1959 2008-07-15 11:52 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy New Delhi
VZCZCXRO7258
OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #1959/01 1971152
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151152Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2653
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1563
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6654
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001959 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IN PARM PK PREL TRGY TSPL
SUBJECT: MENON HOSTS NSG AND IAEA REPRESENTATIVES TO PUSH 
FOR NUCLEAR DEAL 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  On July 14, Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar 
Menon hosted more than fifty representatives from countries 
represented on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 
Board of Governors and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).  Menon 
described the benefits "for India, for the IAEA and for your 
nations" of swiftly approving the IAEA safeguards agreement 
and supporting India in the NSG.  Special Envoy for the 
Nuclear Initiative Shyam Saran also asked representatives to 
convey to their capitals the importance India attaches to the 
initiative, and asked for assistance in arranging calls for 
upcoming visits by Indian envoys to capitals.  He also 
reminded them that completion of the deal "will benefit 
bilateral relations" with each country.  It is clear from 
reactions that participants took this to mean that India will 
"take names" and monitor the positions of each IAEA and NSG 
member. 
 
2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED.  Menon's smooth presentation 
contrasted with an increasingly shrill domestic debate over 
the U.S. India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative.  A 
polemic issued by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
excoriated the IAEA safeguards agreement for failing to give 
India the full rights of the five nuclear weapon states under 
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  The Left Front 
launched a "nation-wide campaign" against the UPA government 
that appears indistinguishable from the Left's approach prior 
to the campaign.  Back-room political deal-making continued, 
with the government preserving its slight majority.  The 
two-seat Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (J&KNC) 
pledged to support the government and the eight-seat 
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) regretfully announced its intention 
to vote against the UPA government and its fellow-Sikh Prime 
Minister in order to preserve its governing coalition with 
the BJP in the state of Punjab.  The Mumbai-based Shiv Sena 
has openly declared its support for the nuclear deal, but it 
remains unclear whether the party's twelve votes will be cast 
against its BJP ally.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Menon Pitches Nuclear Deal to NSG and IAEA Representatives 
- - - 
 
3. (SBU) Ambassadors or Charges d'Affaires represented most 
IAEA and NSG member nations at a glittery evening meal at 
Hyderabad House, a former residence of the Maharaja of 
Hyderabad, where Menon reviewed progress on the U.S.-India 
Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative and talks with Russia 
and France on bilateral civil-nuclear agreements.  Describing 
the IAEA safeguards agreement as a typical INFCIRC-66 
arrangement "within the framework of the U.S.-India 
understanding," he pledged that India will bring civilian 
facilities under safeguards in a phased manner in accordance 
with the March 2006 separation plan.  The civil-nuclear 
initiative, he offered, will enable India's full 
participation in the international non-proliferation regime. 
 
4. (SBU) Thanking the United States for bringing about "an 
historic moment," Saran walked through next steps, noting 
that the NSG will be asked to approve an India-specific 
exemption, unusual for a non-NPT country in that not all 
facilities will be under full-scope safeguards.  He described 
the initiative's benefits to the world, including reductions 
in carbon emissions and new options for addressing global 
energy security concerns, and reviewed India's policy changes 
since 2005, when the GoI approved the Weapons of Mass 
Destruction Act.  Saran argued that India had earned an NSG 
exception by developing indigenous technologies and enforcing 
strict non-proliferation policies.  Twice stressing the 
importance of a "clean and unconditional" NSG exemption, 
Saran stated that adding conditionalities would "bring us 
back to square one" politically in New Delhi, where the 
government has already staked its survival on the 
initiative's success.  Saran also highlighted the importance 
of the U.S. Presidential determination, which signals India's 
steps into the global non-proliferation regime, where India 
is no longer a target. 
 
5. (SBU) Pressed by the Swiss Ambassador during the Q and A 
session on the likely results of next week's confidence vote, 
Saran demurred.  He urged quick movement after the August 1 
IAEA Board meeting, saying the NSG could meet "the day 
after," because arguments about the initiative's impact have 
already been heard.  Saran urged NSG representatives to 
 
NEW DELHI 00001959  002 OF 003 
 
 
summon political will to approve an exemption quickly, so 
that components of the initiative -- including all elements 
of the Presidential determination -- could be forwarded to 
the U.S. Congress by early September.  Responding to the 
Dutch Ambassador's complaint that NSG member countries felt 
"rushed,"  Saran acknowledged the difficulties of a 
compressed timeline, then placed the onus on Ambassadors to 
reflect to their capitals the initiative's importance and 
noted that implementation of the initiative "will benefit 
bilateral relations" with all the countries represented at 
Hyderabad House.  European diplomats at Polcouns' table 
whispered their protests over Saran's "threat." 
 
6. (SBU) Asked by Sweden's Ambassador about the importance of 
a "clean" NSG exemption, Saran described India's reciprocal 
obligations, including those enumerated in the Presidential 
determination required by the Hyde Act.  Although not an NSG 
member and therefore not obligated by NSG rules, India has 
voluntarily harmonized its export control standards, Saran 
said.  He described India's legislation protecting sensitive 
technologies as "wider in scope than the NSG requires." 
Saran pleaded for understanding of India's political 
situation and urged member countries not to revive domestic 
controversy by inserting political conditionalities in the 
NSG exemption.  Menon and Saran asked for participants' help 
in arranging calls during upcoming visits by Indian envoys to 
capitals. 
 
Increasingly Shrill Debate Accompanies Deal-Making 
- - - 
 
7. (SBU) Back-room dealing continued with one week remaining 
before the July 22 confidence vote that will determine the 
future of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition 
government and with it the nuclear initiative.  Prime 
Minister Singh met with industrialist Mukesh Ambani on July 
14, ostensibly to discuss recent populist demands for a 
"windfall tax" on oil companies.  Asserting unnamed Mumbai 
sources, The Asian Age wrote that Ambani offered help in an 
effort to ensure Shiv Sena support for the UPA government. 
The Mumbai-based Shiv Sena holds 12 Lok Sabha seats and has 
openly declared its support for the nuclear deal.  It remains 
unclear whether the party will vote against its Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP) ally, as in the most recent presidential 
elections when it supported Congress Party candidate Pratibha 
Patil. 
 
8. (SBU) Two smaller parties, the Jammu and Kashmir National 
Conference (J&KNC) with two members of parliament and the 
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) with eight members, held party 
meetings on July 15 to decide their positions.  After the 
J&KNC meeting, an Embassy contact said the party's vote would 
be "favorable" for the UPA (presumably either a vote for the 
government or an abstention).  The SAD, however, announced it 
will regretfully vote against the UPA government.  The SAD is 
an opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) member that 
currently governs the state of Punjab in coalition with the 
BJP.  While the Sikh party members support the Prime Minister 
personally, parting with the BJP could have cost it the 
state. 
 
9. (SBU) Educated guesses at this time show the government 
maintaining its slim majority with the anticipated vote count 
at about 276 in favor of the UPA government and its nuclear 
deal, 250 opposed, and 17 undecided.  (Charts showing how 
post reached this assessment have been emailed to SCA/INS.) 
 
10. (SBU) The opposition BJP issued a lengthy statement on 
July 14 criticizing the substance of the IAEA safeguards 
agreement almost a week after party leader L.K. Advani 
rebuked the UPA government in a June 8 press conference for 
its inept and deceitful handling of the process.  The polemic 
excoriates the safeguards agreement for failing to give India 
the full rights of the five established nuclear weapon states 
under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and keeping 
India "in bondage as a non-Nuclear Weapon State in 
perpetuity."  The statement claims India would be more 
vulnerable to inspections than North Korea.  Making common 
cause with those concerned that the safeguards agreement does 
not go far enough, the statement labels the "corrective 
measures" preambular language in the safeguards agreement as 
"vague and non-specific."  Media coverage of the statement 
 
NEW DELHI 00001959  003 OF 003 
 
 
has been minimal. 
 
11. (SBU) Local media attention remained trained on the more 
theatrical antics of the Left, which has continued to attack 
the UPA government from every angle.  Communist Party-Marxist 
(CPI-M) general secretary Prakash Karat, together with other 
Left parties, launched on July 14 a "nation-wide campaign" 
against the UPA government over the nuclear deal and 
inflation.  Demonstrations promised by Karat over a week ago 
to coincide with the launch of the campaign did not 
materialize and so far the "campaign" appears 
indistinguishable from the Left's approach until now.  Karat 
blamed the nuclear deal for a wide variety of capitalist 
ills, claiming, "The nuclear deal will harm small traders and 
farmers.  It will be harmful to workers and sectors like 
insurance and banks, too.  To protect farmers, we have to 
stop this deal.  The nuclear deal is related to globalization 
and market economy."  Karat criticized the Congress Party for 
being "hand-in-hand" with the U.S. and for its "shameful" 
vote against Iran at the IAEA.  Communist Party of India 
(CPI) leader A.B. Bardhan alleged that the UPA was buying 
votes, saying, "I am told they are paying Rupees 25 Crore 
($6.5 million) each ... I am making this allegation because 
this rate is being talked about in the market." 
 
MULFORD