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OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
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O 141135Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2633
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1560
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6649

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001945 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IN PARM PK PREL TRGY TSPL
SUBJECT: POLITICAL REALIGNMENT CONTINUES AS JULY 22 
CONFIDENCE VOTE ON NUCLEAR INITIATIVE APPROACHES 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  The Congress Party-led United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) government continued to maintain its slim 
majority leading toward the July 22 confidence vote.  Several 
small, marginal parties remained uncommitted, hoping to use 
their leverage to extract concessions for their support.  The 
Congress Party launched a media campaign and appointed 11 
spokespersons to defend the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear 
Cooperation Initiative from resurgent criticism, but remained 
reticent to clarify ambiguities in the draft IAEA Safeguards 
Agreement of concern to key Board members.  Left Front 
leaders teamed up with Mayawati to thrash the nuclear 
initiative, while opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra promoted the 
deal in a televised interview.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Approaching July 22 Confidence Vote, Small Parties Make Hay 
- - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) Political bargaining ahead of the July 22 confidence 
vote continued over the July 12-13 weekend, resulting in no 
clear change in the expected result.  Educated guesses place 
the anticipated vote count at about 274 in favor of the UPA 
and its nuclear deal, 242 opposed, and 27 undecided.   Many 
small parties remain uncommitted, and their price for support 
is rising.  In exchange for their support, the three members 
of parliament of the Telangana Rashtra Party demanded the 
creation of a new state of Telangana to be carved out of 
Andhra Pradesh.  Telangana statehood is a nonstarter 
according to Consulate Chennai, leaving the three TRS members 
unlikely to support the government.  Shiromai Akali Dal (SAD) 
leader Prakash Badal repeated publicly on July 13 that his 
party's eight MPs would vote against the UPA government. 
However, Embassy contacts believe Badal's son, a Lok Sabha 
member, could rally his SAD colleagues to abstain. 
 
Congress Launches PR Campaign At Home, But Not Abroad 
- - - 
 
¶3. (SBU) Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi has appointed 11 
spokespersons from among the ranks of senior party leaders to 
defend the nuclear initiative.  The UPA government has taken 
out full-page advertisements in the major newspapers and 
dispatched Rahul Gandhi and others to promote the initiative. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Concerned about a feedback effect on its domestic 
public relations campaign, the government is reticent to make 
similar efforts to woo international support.  Ministry of 
External Affairs Joint Secretary for the Americas Gaitri 
Kumar told PolCouns on July 12 that the Indian government 
plans to answer questions about the IAEA Safeguards Agreement 
-- particularly the "corrective measures" language -- on July 
18 via a high-level briefing to IAEA Ambassadors in Vienna, 
but not before.  The government is concerned about giving the 
nuclear initiative's opponents ammunition in advance of the 
July 22 confidence vote, as a vibrant debate about 
"perpetuity of safeguards only with perpetuity of fuel 
supply" and each of the India-specific issues in the 
Safeguards Agreement dominates local media.  Kumar said the 
Indian government prefers to leave the preambular language 
ambiguous for domestic political reasons rather than issue 
clarifications through press backgrounders. 
 
Strange Bedfellows:  Marxists, Mayawati, Mukherjee 
- - - 
 
¶5. (SUB) Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati and 
Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) leader Prakash Karat 
reaffirmed their opposition to the nuclear initiative and the 
UPA government following a meeting on July 13.  After the 
meeting, Karat told media, "Mayawati reiterated her 
opposition to the deal.  It was decided that there should be 
cooperation to stop the deal and in the struggle against the 
UPA government in this regard."  Karat and Mayawati also 
criticized the government for what they claimed were 
politically motivated criminal investigations of political 
rivals.  (Karat and the supremely opportunist Mayawati share 
little more than a common adversary in the UPA government, 
but a more durable alliance between the two parties would 
stretch political cynicism to its limits.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee traveled to 
Kolkata to pay his respects to Communist Party patriarch 
 
NEW DELHI 00001945  002 OF 002 
 
 
Joyti Basu on July 13.  Speaking to media afterward, 
Mukherjee praised Basu for his "remarkable, pioneering 
contribution to national politics."  Mukherjee's visit to 
Basu wa3 orchestrated along with that of Lokh Sabha Speaker 
Somnath Chatterjee, whose own CPM has been pressing him to 
relinquish his post.  Chatterjee, a six-time minister, was 
unanimously elected Speaker by the Lok Sabha when the UPA 
coalition receivd outside support from the Left.  Basu 
reportedly advised him to toe the party line rather than 
remain as Speaker.  (Mukherjee, who owes his cabinet post to 
support from the Left, likely paid the visit both on behalf 
of Chatterjee and to signal the Congress Party's willingness 
to look beyond the nuclear initiative rancor when considering 
the Left as a possible coalition partner once again following 
national elections.) 
 
While Left Hectors, BJP Reveals Achilles Heel 
- - - 
 
¶7. (SBU) Virtually drowned out by the bellicose Left, the 
leaders of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have 
hardly mentioned the confidence vote.  BJP leader L.K. 
Advani's most recent statement on July 12 objected to 
allowing jailed Lok Sabha members to cast their vote.  Under 
current practice, the five representatives serving 
simultaneous parliamentary and prison terms would be brought 
to the floor for the vote.  At least three and possibly all 
five are thought to support the nuclear initiative. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The most prominent BJP voice in the media has been 
that of former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra, a 
supporter of the nuclear initiative.  Mishra's recent 
interview in which he explains his support for the initiative 
while criticizing the government for its handling of the 
issue has aired repeatedly on local television.  (The BJP 
leadership may be encountering a lack of enthusiasm among 
members asked to vote alongside their ideological foes 
against an initiative they began and which most continue to 
support.) 
 
MULFORD