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OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #1894/01 1901226
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O 081226Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2560
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6946
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2713
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5701
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6622
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 7805
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001894 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER KDEM IN
SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR'S CONGRESS-LED GOVERNMENT FALLS 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 1799 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Congress Party 
Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad resigned on July 7, thereby 
ending the rule of his Congress-led coalition government in 
the state.  Azad's coalition government lost its majority 
when its key ally, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), 
pulled its support on June 28 in response to the government's 
decision to grant land to Hindu pilgrims in predominately 
Muslim Kashmir (reftel).  After several days of politicking, 
and violent street demonstrations from Muslims and Hindus 
alike over the land transfer, Azad realized he could not find 
the votes to win a confidence motion and submitted his 
resignation to Governor N.N. Vohra.  Azad's downfall 
represents another blow to the Congress Party, which has 
recently lost state elections in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, 
Karnataka, and now faces a failed government in J&K.  This 
bodes poorly for Congress, both in J&K, which heads to the 
polls in October, and nationally with polls due in May 2009 
at the latest.  End Summary. 
 
Timeline of Events: Land Transfer Stirs up Emotions 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (U) The J&K government transferred 100 acres of state land 
to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) for the use of Hindu 
pilgrims in predominately Muslim Kashmir on May 26.  Muslims 
in many Kashmir localities demonstrated against the land 
transfer throughout June.  Opposition reached a fever pitch 
by June 25 when police fired on the demonstrators, killing 
two and injuring 70. Mass strikes and sit-ins ensued which 
brought the state to a standstill.  On June 28, a Congress 
Party coalition ally, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), 
withdrew support from the government to formally protest the 
land transfer.  In keeping with constitutional law, Governor 
Vohra then called on Chief Minister Azad to demonstrate his 
majority in the Assembly by July 7.  In the face of ongoing 
protests, the Congress-led government reversed itself on July 
1, taking the land back from the SASB.  This in turn led to 
violent demonstrations in Hindu-majority Jammu.  Protests 
continued, though with decreasing fervor, until July 7 when 
Azad resigned, unable to muster the votes to win a confidence 
motion. 
 
Governor's Rule Likely 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Comment: Governor Vohra accepted Azad's resignation 
but asked him to remain in a caretaker role until other 
arrangements can be made.  This in all likelihood means 
Governor's Rule, to be announced in the coming days.  In any 
other Indian state, the Congress may have tried to play 
politics and somehow let Azad remain in a caretaker role 
until elections in October.  But given the sensitivities and 
demonstrated political volatilities in J&K, any decision 
other than Governor's Rule would likely backfire on Congress 
and enrage the opposition.  Most political analysts believe 
the Congress party will lose seats in the October elections. 
However, due to the political math in J&K, the Congress may 
still find itself in a ruling coalition with either the PDP 
or the National Conference after October polls, albeit as a 
junior partner. 
 
National Implications: Congress Loses Another State 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment Continued: The loss of another state 
portends ill for the struggling Congress Party.  With 
elections due in October in J&K, it's possible Congress could 
"lose" the state twice.  This comes on the heels of the 
Congress Party's state electoral defeats in Himachal Pradesh, 
Gujarat and Karnataka.  The only silver lining in the J&K 
affair has been the much larger story of the Congress Party's 
success in having potentially saved itself and nuclear deal 
at the center.  Positive nuclear deal developments have 
 
NEW DELHI 00001894  002 OF 002 
 
 
garnered all the headlines and made J&K a (still big) 
secondary story.  This is of course little comfort to 
Congress Party leaders who face a fragmented polity in the 
2009 general elections with a surging BJP and deeply embedded 
regional parties.  End Comment. 
MULFORD