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P 301144Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6632
INFO RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 6064
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 2111
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RHMFIUU/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
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RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001851 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, PRM/AF, OES 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS USAID/EA 
 
INTERIOR FOR US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DR. JAYNE BELNAP 
 
E.O.12958: N /A 
TAGS: MASS SENV EAGR EAID ECON PGOV PREF SOCI KE
 
SUBJECT: Tapping Water in Kenya's Arid North Eastern 
Province, Part One 
 
Reference: Nairobi 1041 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. In Kenya's arid North Eastern Province, livelihoods have 
centered on pastoralism (the practice of herding livestock) 
for hundreds of years.  The traditionally lucrative and 
relatively stable pastoralist lifestyle which relies on a 
nomadic or semi-nomadic lifestyle  came under severe 
threat at the time of Kenya's independence, however, and 
the area's more recent history has brought overpopulation, 
overgrazing, refugee flows from Somalia, and the 
mushrooming of permanent settlements in grazing areas, all 
of which have increased the fragility of the land.  Kenya's 
Grand Coalition Government has created a new ministry to 
oversee the development of Northern Kenya and other arid 
lands, which presents an opportunity to galvanize interest 
and develop a consensus in approach for addressing the 
long-term development needs of this long-neglected region. 
But those who wish to bring development will have to make 
some difficult choices if the North Eastern Province and 
other areas of Northern Kenya are to achieve sustainable 
economic growth.  Unless the new ministry is able to 
interpret its mandate in a way to constructively influence 
the development initiatives of other ministries, the donor 
community, and politicians seeking to secure their 
electoral futures, the future for Kenya's pastoralists and 
the economy they support is at risk.  This is particularly 
a priority in terms of water development projects. 
 
¶2. This is the first of two cables describing the 
challenges of development in Kenya's North Eastern 
Province, particularly in terms of water development, in 
which the Combined Joint Task Force  Horn of Africa is 
providing assistance.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Pastoralism: A Lifestyle Under Siege 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. In Kenya's largely arid North Eastern Province, the 
population of mostly ethnic Somalis has relied on grazing 
livestock to make a living for hundreds of years. 
Perennial grasses helped livestock survive dry seasons and 
droughts, and herders frequently crossed clan lines to 
water and graze livestock because of well-understood 
reciprocal agreements.  During the dry season, herders 
concentrate their animals around fixed water points.  When 
the rains begin, herds spread out to wet grazing areas. 
 
¶4. While pastoralism has provided a viable livelihood in a 
region that can ecologically support little else, a number 
of factors have contributed to its gradual decline.  Some 
have been unintentional, others have not, but all have 
built on one another to accelerate sedentarization (a shift 
from nomadism to permanent settlement).  At the time of 
Kenya's independence, pastoralism suffered a heavy blow. 
One of the tactics used by Kenyan security forces to 
control movement and defeat an uprising of irredentist 
Somali nationalists during the Shifta War (1963-67) was to 
force large numbers of people into controlled villages and 
kill their livestock, which effectively sedentarized them. 
 
¶5. The emergence of multiparty democracy in Kenya has also 
contributed to the sedentarization process.  As politics in 
the area are driven solely by clan identity, politicians 
competing for votes encourage the creation of permanent 
settlements by their clans to create voting blocs. 
Government officials often create new administrative 
districts to mollify clan leaders competing for political 
representation. 
 
 
NAIROBI 00001851  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6. The good intentions of the donor community have also 
driven sedentarization.  Food distribution sites set up to 
respond to droughts often create permanent (and dependent) 
settlements.  Boreholes, pans (i.e., stockponds), and dams 
built to extend the range of traditional grazing areas have 
the same effect.  To give an idea of the scale of these 
development efforts, a study by the Food and Agriculture 
Organization found that in Wajir District there were four 
fixed water points in the 1940s.  By 1996, there were 75. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Unintended Consequences and 
Other Problems Intensify Fragility 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7. Development efforts have created conditions allowing for 
more livestock (and people) to live off the land, but the 
sedentarization process has created a number of serious 
challenges to the carrying capacity of the North Eastern 
Province's fragile landscape.  The disruption of 
traditional grazing patterns has led to overgrazing (and 
the disappearance of critical perennial grasses) and an 
increase in the number of settled populations on 
traditional grazing areas.  This in turn has led to 
increased competition between rival clans over land and 
water resources, which frequently has resulted in violence. 
Kenya's porous borders with its less-stable neighbors such 
as Somalia and Sudan make it easy to obtain small arms and 
light weapons, which make the violence even worse. 
 
¶8. In this sense, the proliferation of permanent water 
sources has had a counterintuitive effect: it has increased 
vulnerability by encouraging overforaging.  During the last 
serious drought (2005/6), large livestock die-offs were due 
to lack of forage, not lack of water. 
 
¶9. Outside forces bring additional pressure to bear on the 
population of the North Eastern Province.  One of these is 
the influx of refugees from regional conflicts.  Refugees 
have flocked to camps around the town of Dadaab for the 
last 17 years.  There is now an estimated population of 
200,000 refugees in the area, most of whom fled the 
longstanding conflict in Somalia.  Severe deforestation 
driven by refugees' need for firewood and complaints by 
host communities that refugee water consumption has lowered 
the underground water table are just two examples of their 
negative impact. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Will New Ministry Use Its Mandate 
To Drive Sustainable Development? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶10. Although the proliferation of ministerial posts in the 
new Grand Coalition Government was based on purely 
political calculations (reftel), the creation of the new 
Ministry of State for the Development of Northern Kenya and 
Other Arid Lands in April 2008 was a signal of government 
understanding that Kenya's arid and semi-arid areas (which 
together comprise 80 percent of Kenya's land mass) need 
serious attention.  Kenya's arid and semi-arid areas 
consistently lead the country in poverty rates and lag 
behind in development indicators. 
 
¶11. The new ministry has assumed oversight of the World 
Bank-funded Arid Lands Resource Management Project, whose 
staff understand well the limits of developing arid areas. 
It is not clear from the new ministry's mandate, however, 
that the government officials who created it understand the 
extent to which an improvement in living standards is 
linked with respect for the carrying capacity of the land. 
 
¶12. According to the new government circular announcing the 
responsibilities of Kenya's ministries, priorities for the 
 
NAIROBI 00001851  003 OF 003 
 
 
new ministry include infrastructure development, 
encouraging the development of townships along roads, 
livestock development, water supply, and irrigation 
development.  The top funding priority in the Ministry's 
2008 budget submission was for road construction, according 
to Permanent Secretary Hukka Wario (a long-time civil 
servant and former Ambassador who also is from Marsabit, in 
the arid upper Eastern Province). 
 
¶13. Less clear is the mechanism through which the new 
ministry is supposed to interface with other ministries 
that have overlapping mandates, such as the Ministries of 
Livestock and Water.  The first step in the right direction 
was a recent interagency meeting chaired by the Prime 
Minister to discuss disaster risk reduction in arid lands. 
While the meeting was narrowly focused on garnering UNDP 
funding, a more coordinated approach to arid lands policy 
in general may be on the way. 
 
¶14. While road construction and other infrastructure 
development are much needed for the region's long-term 
economic development and more equitable access to social 
services, those who wish to "bring development" to the 
North Eastern Province will have to make some difficult 
choices if the land providing critically important fodder 
and water is to remain viable.  Some believe that there are 
already too many boreholes and too many grazing animals in 
too small an area.  With the disappearance of perennial 
grasses and an increase in the number of small bushes and 
invasive non-native species (inedible to livestock), it is 
easy to understand why most conflicts in the region are 
over access to grazing areas and water. 
 
-------------------------- 
Comment: Balanced Approach 
Critical to NEP's Future 
-------------------------- 
 
¶15. The North Eastern Province now supports an increasingly 
settled population that wants roads, clinics, schools and 
wells.  If the area's residents are to overcome the dark 
history of the Shifta War and truly integrate into the rest 
of Kenya, transportation, education, health, and 
improvements in the livestock industry are critical.  At 
the same time, it has always been a mark of honor and 
wealth among pastoralists to maintain large herds that in 
turn need lots of forage.  While pastoralism has always 
driven the economy of the North Eastern Province, it has 
only been the proliferation of permanent water sites that 
have allowed unsustainably large herds to survive. 
 
¶16. As time goes on and resources become more constrained, 
both sides will have to give.  There is a limit to how much 
settlement the North Eastern Province can take.  Staff 
members from the Arid Lands Project complain mightily about 
the cost of trucking water to communities that have settled 
around pans that go dry in between rainy seasons.  If there 
is a balance to be found, it is most likely to happen under 
the watchful eye of the new Ministry of State for the 
Development of Northern Kenya and Other Arid Lands. 
Initial indications are that the new minister, Mohamed 
Elmi, who is both a former employee of Oxfam and from the 
North Eastern Province himself, will bring an experienced 
eye to the problem and give voice to the experienced 
technical staff in the Arid Lands project. 
 
¶17. If scientists' predictions that global warming will 
cause weather patterns in the North Eastern Province to 
become more unpredictable, droughts to become longer and 
more frequent, and fragile soils to become drier, it will 
not make anyone's job any easier.  It will, however, force 
us all to take a critical look at how we "bring 
development" to a dry land.  End Comment. 
SLUTZ