VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #0944/01 2061639
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241639Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2939
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000944 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR FISK AND ALVARADO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2018 
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: PLC CONVENTION SHOWS ALEMAN IN CONTROL, 
MONTEALEGRE'S POSITION TENUOUS 
 
REF: MANAGUA 880 
 
Classified By: DCM Richard M. Sanders, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: The Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) held 
its national convention July 11 outside Managua, with the 
nominal purpose of showing a united front against the Ortega 
government, ratifying its candidate list for the November 
municipal elections, and supporting Managua mayoral candidate 
Eduardo Montealegre while opposing the removal of his 
immunity regarding the CENIS case (reftel).  The actual 
results of the convention showed Arnoldo Aleman in clear 
control of the party, a Liberal opposition that remains to be 
united, and tenuous support for Montealegre from the PLC 
leadership, which may yet find a way to force him off the 
ticket.  As the country heads toward elections, the continued 
division within the Liberals could strengthen the FSLN's 
position and lead to an Ortega victory in November. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Aleman: The Leader of the Pack, but not the Opposition 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2.  (C) In the PLC keynote address, former president and 
convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman tried to rally the Liberals by 
criticizing the Sandinista government's poor performance in 
its first 18 months.  (Note: Aleman freely criticized the 
Sandinista government, but never criticized President Ortega 
by name.)  He also blasted former president Bolanos, whom  he 
blamed for splitting the Liberals and setting the stage for 
their loss in the 2006 presidential elections.  Aleman said 
the PLC-Vamos con Eduardo (VCE) alliance was the winning 
ticket for the November municipal elections, highlighting the 
ballot for Managua with Eduardo Montealegre (VCE) for mayor 
and Enrique Quinonez (PLC) as deputy mayor. 
 
¶3.  (C) The crowd's reaction to Aleman demonstrated he was 
still able to rally key elements of the PLC base.  Cheers for 
"Arnoldo" were far louder and outnumbered any cheers for 
"Eduardo" or Aleman's nemesis Enrique Quinonez, a 
tough-talking PLC National Assembly deputy and candidate for 
vice-mayor of Managua who has made publicly criticizing 
Aleman his mission over the last six months.  La Trinchera, 
the PLC mouthpiece daily paper, confirmed Aleman's position 
in the party by stating he "demonstrated he was the party's 
leader and the PLC recognized his leadership."  Despite the 
clear support for Aleman, there were some instances of VCE 
members with posters denouncing the Ortega-Aleman pact; these 
were quickly taken away by Aleman loyalists.  These incidents 
were limited as most of Quinonez supporters (who oppose 
Aleman) were prohibited from entering the convention, leading 
to some violent confrontations between Quinonez and Aleman 
supporters. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
The PLC Supports Montealegre ... Kind Of 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) The PLC ratified its slate of candidates for the 
November municipal elections, and singled out its support for 
Montealegre and Quinonez in the Managua race.  Aleman 
personally pledged his support to Montealegre and claimed 
that Montealegre has the support of the PLC troops behind 
him.  However, Aleman has taken steps to keep the door open 
to remove Montealegre and Quinonez if (or more likely when) 
necessary.  First, the convention authorized the PLC 
executive committee (CEN) to replace at any time any 
candidate not deemed capable of winning.  The CEN is 
comprised of Aleman loyalists and has recently issued public 
warnings to Quinonez that he risks being removed for his 
public criticisms of Aleman and the PLC leadership. This 
authority provides one key avenue for Aleman to eliminate any 
chance of Montealegre participating in the elections.  PLC 
contacts and members of Montealegre's campaign team have 
suggested to us that Quinonez could be forced out in late 
August or early September as a first step to removing 
Montealegre. 
 
¶5.  (C)  The second avenue available to Aleman in 
manipulating to remove Montealegre would be to strip the 
candidate of his immunity as a deputy in the National 
Assembly based on the government's corruption charges 
(reftel).  To remove a National Assembly deputy's immunity 
("desaforacion"), 47 of the 92 members in the assembly must 
vote in favor of the motion.  Currently 44 members (all 38 of 
 
the FSLN and 6 of the ALN) are expected to vote against 
Montealegre.  Five deputies are "independent," three of which 
usually vote with the FSLN.  The FSLN is working hard to find 
the votes to strip Montealegre of his immunity and it is 
widely suspected Aleman is also prepared to throw in a few 
PLC votes to ensure the mayoral candidate's political demise 
and strengthen his own leadership in the liberal ranks. 
Aleman's involvement in this process was alluded to when PLC 
Secretary General Francisco Aguirre Sacasa told the DCM that 
"the majority" of the PLC would vote against Montealegre's 
loss of immunity -- implying that a handful of PLC deputies 
could go over to the FSLN on the vote. 
 
¶6.  (C) The National Assembly will return from recess August 
6 and a petition to lift Montealegre's immunity is expected 
soon after.  Given legislative procedures, a vote probably 
would not occur until late of September.  This would coincide 
with the beginning of the official campaigns - approximately 
one month prior to the elections. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) The PLC convention left no doubt Aleman is in firm 
control of the party and is positioning himself as the sole 
"alternative" to Ortega.  Aleman has followed the convention 
with nearly daily media appearances or campaign stops, 
further demonstrating his resurgent and overt political 
control over the Liberal alliance.  At the same time, the 
convention equally showed there is still no real unity among 
the liberal factions, which continue to maintain separate 
campaign structures in many municipalities, including 
Managua. 
 
¶8.  (C) Aleman's public pledge to support Montealegre belies 
the fact that he is retaining all the tools to betray 
Montealegre should this be needed to preserve the "Pacto" 
with Ortega which has kept him out of jail despite his 
conviction and sentencing on massive corruption charges.  The 
loss of immunity, or the removal of Quinonez as his 
vice-mayoral candidate, could force Montealegre to drop out 
of the race.  The PLC would then be certain to replace him 
with a loyal partisan who would further alienate an already 
disillusioned electorate.  This could weaken the Liberals, 
lead to a strengthened FSLN, and a resounding win for Ortega 
in the November elections. 
TRIVELLI