VZCZCXRO9059
OO RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0198 1850959
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 030959Z JUL 08
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2061
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2519

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000198 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI IN
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS AGAIN SUFFER LOSSES IN WEST BENGAL'S LOCAL 
ELECTIONS AND A WEAKENING OF THEIR POLITICAL BASE 
 
REF: KOLKATA 160 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On June 29, the Communist Party of 
India-Marxist (CPM) experienced another serious electoral loss 
in local elections, with the results from the local, municipal 
elections.  This latest setback, follows bad results in the May 
panchayat (local government) polls (reftel).  Of the 13 
municipal bodies that went to polls in the last week, CPM-led 
Left Front won just 4 to the opposition's 8 victories (one 
municipality was won by the Forward Bloc).  The lead opposition 
party, Trinamul Congress, wrested 3 municipalities - Guskara, 
Habra and Midnapore -- directly from the Left, while the 
Congress captured one -- Dalkhola.  In the same 13 
constituencies in 2003, the Left had won 9 and the opposition 4. 
 This weakening of the Left's political position in its key West 
Bengal bastion is significant as it coming at the same that the 
CPM's national leadership in New Delhi is threatening to bring 
down the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government over the 
Indo-U.S. civil nuclear agreement and to force early national 
parliamentary elections.  West Bengal CPM leadership is 
reportedly unhappy with the prospect of early national 
elections, while they continue to face significant losses in 
local elections.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SUB) West Bengal has a total of 126 municipal bodies 
governing urban and semi-urban areas.  Elections are held for 
these bodies every five years.  In the 13 municipalities holding 
the latest round of elections, only the CPM lost municipal 
governments from their control, losing four.  The other parties 
Trinamul Congress, Congress and even the smaller Left allies 
Forward Bloc (FB) and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 
retained the municipal governments that they previously held or 
increased their control.  CPM lost to the opposition in 
districts ranging from North Dinajpur (North Bengal) to Burdwan 
(Central) and North 24 Parganas (South Bengal). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Although the results occurred in only 13 municipal 
areas, they are a good indication of public opinion in different 
regions of West Bengal.  While the issue of land acquisition for 
industry may have driven rural voters away from the Left as 
evident in the May panchayat polls, Left leaders in the state 
were shocked by the results in urban and semi-urban areas. 
These latest results are believed to reflect reaction to the 
CPM's overall record of poor governance, to include weak 
education, health care, food distribution and other urban public 
services. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The municipal elections setback comes at a bad time 
for the CPM as at the national level, General Secretary Prakash 
Karat is threatening to bring down the UPA government should the 
Congress Party go forward with the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear deal. 
 The last thing that West Bengal's Left leaders now want is 
early parliamentary elections if the UPA loses its majority.  In 
2004, the Left had won 35 of West Bengal's 42 parliamentary 
seats.  At this point, the leaders fear a loss of more than a 
dozen seats in the parliament's lower house Lok Sabha. 
According to several contacts with good access to the state CPM 
leadership, many leaders are upset with Karat's intransigence 
over the civil-nuclear deal.  A well-placed advisor to Chief 
Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, told ConGen that rumors have 
been circulating that there was a small chance of Karat's ouster 
by the WB CPM leadership, though the advisor said that "it was 
no more than a 10 percent chance."  While unlikely that Karat 
would be pushed out, the mere fact that the rumors exist 
reflects a significant tension within the CPM and a growing 
internal lobby against early parliamentary elections. 
 
JARDINE