VZCZCXRO8215
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1122 2091349
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271349Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1433
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001122 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM SG OPTMISTIC ON ELECTION COMMISSION CREATION 
 
¶1. (SBU) SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum told ConGen Juba July 23 
that he was confident the National Elections Commission (NEC) would 
be established and operable before the end of August.  The National 
Congress Party has already finalized its list of candidates, and 
allowed three names to be disqualified on the grounds that they were 
"partisan."  Moreover, he contended, the ICC's application for an 
arrest warrant against President Bashir guaranteed the NEC's 
establishment because, "he will be doing everything possible to 
continue to look presidential - to demonstrate he is not intimidated 
by international opinion, and that his government will weather the 
storm." Amum was dismissive of conjecture that further ICC 
development's risked Sudan's demise.  "People said that after the 
death of John Garang, yet the nation has survived." 
 
¶2. (SBU) The SPLM has not yet finalized its NEC list and continues 
to be tight-lipped about potential candidates. Amum noted that all 
parties have agreed on the necessity of avoiding a "public vetting" 
of NEC members prior to their appointment - a political ceasefire 
meant to reduce tensions ahead of probable squabbles over census 
results and the electoral timeline itself. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The recently passed National Elections Law states that 
"impartial, national figures" must be appointed by President Bashir 
to fill the nine commission seats.  Pressed on whether there was 
space for neutrality in Sudanese politics, Amum responded that it 
was possible - selecting candidates was complicated only by the need 
to identify those "presently apolitical," and a candidate's  past 
political aspirations or positions were not necessarily 
disqualifying factors. He allowed, for instance, that erstwhiQ(Hh]QQn VQQQM%QQQQJl %QI\Y[XZ+QQsuch a figure despite 
his appearance at the SPLM Convention, and was likely to be offered 
a seat on the Commission. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment: The final disposition of the SPLM list will not 
occur before the end of this weekend's Political Bureau meeting. 
This is the first session of the SPLM's senior-most leadership body 
since May's National Convention, and features returning party 
luminaries such as Nhial Deng Nhial, who had previously gone into 
self imposed exile over disagreements with Kiir on SPLM policy and 
concerns about corruption.  This effort by the SPLM to come together 
to push ahead on elections gives some hope that Sudan may yet hold 
them before the close of 2009, though it is also possible that the 
SPLM leadership will spend much of this weekend discussing strategy 
with regard to the ICC indictment as well as Darfur strategy 
following President Bashir's trip there last week.  The ICC issue 
continues to suck the oxygen out of many issues that are important 
to the SPLM, including the naming of an interim administration for 
Abyei. 
 
FERNANDEZ