VZCZCXRO7479
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1120/01 2091348
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271348Z JUL 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1430
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001120 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM VICE CHAIRMAN MALIK AGAR ON ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a July 26 meeting with ConGen Juba, Blue Nile 
State Governor and Vice Chairman of the SPLM Malik Agar said that 
the SPLM will contest the 2009 elections from top to bottom, and 
that party support to GOSS President Kiir is "solid." End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Meeting on the margins of an SPLM Political Bureau 
conference this weekend in Juba, SPLM Vice Chairman Malik Agar told 
Congen Juba that the SPLM will contest the 2009 elections at all 
levels nationally.  He said the SPLM would do this despite knowing 
that the NCP now finds itself with its back to the wall because of 
the ICC indictments.  "Even before this, Bashir could not give up 
power," Malik said, "because of all the crimes he has committed. 
But the ICC has made this even more true."  However, the SPLM has no 
alternative but to try to contest the elections anyway.  It was, he 
said, the only path to holding a referendum in 2011.  "At this 
point, Bashir can lose everything in a general upheaval, or he can 
keep something and survive." Asked what it was that Bashir might be 
able to keep, Malik was vague, finally saying that perhaps he could 
keep the presidency, even through cheating, so long as the SPLM held 
the National Assembly and could write the 2011 referendum law. 
(Comment: Malik's comments seemed to indicate that the SPLM would 
contest the elections to ensure a deal with the NCP on the 
referendum law. End comment.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Asked if the SPLM would select GOSS President Kiir to run 
against Bashir for the presidency of the GNU, Malik again was 
evasive, although he indicated that Kiir's support in the SPLM is 
complete, and so it made sense that he would head the party ticket. 
Asked who else might be selected if Kiir decided not to be the 
candidate, Malik refused to speculate.  Asked if he would consider 
running, he said he did not want to, but if Kiir asked him to, he 
would do it. 
 
¶4. (SBU) "The challenge we face," said Malik, "is getting peacefully 
to the 2011 referendum."  The South, he said, has no incentive to 
stay in a united Sudan, and will vote to break away.  It was 
important that the break be peaceful, however.  If that means 
sharing oil revenue, that could be done, but the South has suffered 
too much war, he said, and the goal of Kiir and the party is to get 
through this period without more of it.  What most concerned Malik 
was the Three Areas in 2011 (Blue Nile being one of the three 
areas).  The means by which they will decide who to align with are 
not clear.  If the NCP tries to keep them against the will of the 
people, and fighting breaks out, the SPLM will go to their aid.  "We 
will have no choice," he said. (Note: While Abyei's choice to decide 
to go with the South is enshrined in the CPA, Blue Nile and Nuba 
Mountains are stuck with much more vague "popular consultations" 
which could force them to stay in Northern Sudan against the will of 
many of their citizens). 
 
¶5. (SBU) Asked if the Political Bureau was considering a reshuffling 
of the cabinet, Malik said that some ministers might change 
portfolios, but that there would be no actual changes of people. 
Concerning the naming of a new Minister for SPLA Affairs to replace 
the recently deceased Dominic Dim Deng, Makik said that the position 
will remain open for the time being and Kiir himself will oversee 
the portfolio. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: Malik and others in the SPLM continue to show 
unwavering support for President Kiir.  Malik's refusal (as well as 
the refusal of others) to speculate on who might run for the GNU 
presidency if Kiir does not,  springs, we think, from a sense that 
talking about that would show disloyalty to Kiir.  His primary place 
at the head of the party might well indicate that he will have 
little option but to stand for the presidency against Bashir, 
despite the nearly universal belief in the South that Bashir will 
not step down from power under any circumstances, and that Kiir's 
efforts are better focused on the GOSS and on keeping the SPLM 
united.  The view of all we talk to in Juba is that the SPLM must 
compete to insure that the South gets to hold a peaceful referendum 
in 2011, which is the primary goal of all southerners. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment Cont.: Malik's comments on the Three Areas are 
deeply troubling.  Abyei has a right to a referendum on self 
determination, but the Nuba Mountains and southern Blue Nile only 
have a right to a popular consultation (presumably a discussion on 
type of government, but not a referendum on self-determination). 
Malik should know better, but his comment reflects the widespread 
view that the people of the Nuba Mountains and southern Blue Nile 
will not accept being "abandoned" to the north, which is why over 
twenty thousand SPLA troops (who are from those communities) remain 
there.  This will surely be a cause for war if the SPLM and NCP do 
not negotiate a way for these two areas to retain nominal autonomy 
under SPLM control following the referendum in 2011.  This would be 
a another new issue for negotiation between the parties that is in 
their interests to resolve if they want to ensure peace and 
continued oil revenues in the long term. 
 
KHARTOUM 00001120  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
FERNANDEZ