VZCZCXRO4714
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1108/01 2051502
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 231502Z JUL 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1408
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001108 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAwMi PGOV, PREL, KPKO, SOCI, AU-I, UNSC, SU 
SUBJECT: RIZEIGAT ARAB CONCERNED ABOUT ETHNIC POLARIZATION IN 
DARFUR 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 992 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On July 21 poloffs met with Waleed Madibbo Mousa, 
a prominent Darfur Rizeigat Arab intellectual and civil society 
leader who recently organized the equestrian festival in Ed-Daien, 
South Darfur (Reftel). Madibbo expressed grave concern over the 
deepening ethnic divide in Darfur, which is now evolving in the 
direction of pitting the Zaghawa against all other tribes. He was 
also fearful of a rumored impending JEM military offensive (he 
passed on familiar rumors of hundreds of JEM vehicles departing 
Ndjamena destined for Darfur) and predicted that such an action 
would destabilize the weakened NCP regime, create a power vacuum JEM 
cannot fill, and plunge Darfur into chaos. Madibbo views existing 
"institutional frameworks" and UN attempts at mediation as wholly 
inadequate and futile in addressing these challenges. As an 
alternative, he proposed convening a forum of "rational, genuine" 
tribal leaders from to promote intertribal unity and organic 
solutions to the Darfur crisis. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Madibbo asserted that the Zaghawa are now allying for 
political and military domination of Darfur, and declared that 
Darfuri society is increasingly being split between Zaghawa and 
non-Zaghawa. "In Darfur we don't have rebel movements, just 
Zaghawa," he stated. He asserted that as a result, the Rizeigat 
Arabs are now in "full harmony" with the Masalit, the Fur, and other 
smaller tribes who feel alienated by the impending threat. Abdul 
Wahid, for example, is "now just a politician" and has formed 
alliances with the Rizeigat for self-preservation. Furthermore, 
Madibbo asserted that the Zaghawa primacy is being exacerbated by 
the ethnicized politics of GOS, which is seeking to keep Darfur 
divided: he claimed that GOS is now arming Darfuri African tribes 
such as the Birgit to fight the Zaghawa (SLA/U), though he admitted 
he could provide scant detail on this assertion. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Citing Arab contacts in Chad, Madibbo claimed that JEM's 
military force has quadrupled, and is poised to undertake a major 
offensive in Darfur, Iordofan, or Khartoum State. He predicted that 
if JEM attacks Khartoum they will not win, but the regime will 
crumble nonetheless because is has lost the "moral imperative" to 
govern as a result of ICC indictment against President Bashir. 
Madibbo was clearly troubled by this prospect, which he predicted 
will occur within several months. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Madibbo expressed frusration with existing attempt to 
resolve the arfur criis, decrying the ineffetiveness of signed 
agreemets such as the DPA as well a the futilityof effort by the 
UN, whic he charaterized as consisting of alof and ineffectual 
bureaucrats. "People ae dyng," he said, "and they're worried about 
their per diem." He was similarly dismissive of the appointment of 
Djibril Bassole as the new U.N. and African Union joint chief 
mediator for Darfur.  (Note: Due to his own interest in promoting 
civil society tracks to resolving the conflict in Darfur, Madibbo 
has always been dismissive of peace talks qith the rebels. End 
note.) 
¶5. (SBU) Madibbo, himself a civil society leader, argued for the 
need to empower and promote genuine civil society leaders over 
militarized groups, and proposed convening a forum of Rizeigat, Fur, 
Masalit, Zaghawa and other tribal representatives to promote 
intertribal unity.  He urged that the US sponsor such a conference, 
~~yto demonstrate that "America is not against the Arabs in Darfur." 
He also viewed the proposed conference a signal of solidarity in 
Darfur that would help distance Arab tribes from the NCP. We need to 
send a message to the Arabs that "they don't have go down with 
Bashir," he said. (Note: Madibbo expressed support for the upcoming 
conference on Darfur organized by Abdelbagi Jibril, director of the 
Darfur Relief and Documentation Centre. The conference, which will 
be attended by intellectuals and civil society leaders in Arusha, 
Tanzania, is an independent initiative organized without cooperation 
from JMST or UN. End note.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Looking beyond the crisis in Darfur, Madibbo stated that 
the best hope for peace was a split from the ethnic, religious and 
ideological polarization of the past and the fostering of a secular, 
liberal democracy. He asserted that "middle of the spectrum" 
political views, embodied by traditional political parties such as 
Umma and DUP as well as Sufi leaders, are in fact representative of 
the majority of the Sudanese citizenry. Yet this moderate voice 
remains largely inactive, he said, in contrast with the more robust 
activity of more radical groups. To remedy this, Madibbo postulated 
the need for "constitutional re-engineering" tha4 would remove 
religious figures from the political process. Along these lines, 
Madibbo also noted that despite his party base, Sadiq al Mahdi is no 
longer an asset to democracy in Sudan, as he maintains illusions of 
an Islamic State 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: Madibbo's dire assessment of the threat posed by 
 
KHARTOUM 00001108  002 OF 002 
 
 
JEM is more alarmist than most, but his report of a military buildup 
is consistent with rumors that Post has been hearing from other 
sources - rumors that remain unconfirmed.  Madibbo has his own 
agenda when it comes to organizing civil society conferences, which 
is to ensure that he gains in profile as a non-military leader, one 
who is capable of bringing together various ethnic factions in 
Darfur.  In principle the idea is a good one, and post has 
encouraged Madibbo to develop a proposal and distribute it to 
potential partners.  Madibbo's information about the Darfur civil 
society meeting in Tanzania is more detailed than previous reports 
we have received.  The JMST reported to us July 23 that the SPLM has 
requested assistance in organizing another round of Darfur rebel 
unification talks in Juba.  Post will pass on additional details of 
these efforts following meetings with SPLM officials in the coming 
days. 
 
FERNANDEZ