VZCZCXRO2283
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1093/01 2030933
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 210933Z JUL 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1388
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001093 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/C 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR REBEL MOVEMENTS HINT AT COOPERATION WHILE MINNAWI 
ENJOYS DARFUR'S RAINY SEASON 
 
REF: A) KHARTOUM 1067 
B) KHARTOUM 992 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Confidants of Minni Minawi report he has no 
immediate plans to return soon from Darfur.  Meanwhile political 
representatives of JEM, SLA/MM, SLA/U and SLA/AW all hint at a new, 
grass-roots political initiative among Darfur rebel groups. JEM 
reports cooperation with SLA/AW, SLA/Unity appears delighted by 
their reception with JEM in Geneva last week, and Abdulwahid's 
brother-in-law intends to push Darfur rebel representatives and 
civil society leaders towards an agreement in Arusha, Tanzania at 
the end of the month. While all this may come to nothing, the advent 
of the rainy season in Darfur is also lowering the odds that Zaghawa 
factions will unite in a "Zaghawa tsunami" to attack Khartoum 
following on the recent ICC indictment of President Bashir. End 
summary. 
¶2. (SBU) After weeks in Darfur, Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) 
signatory Minni Minnawi is showing no signs of returning to Khartoum 
and reengaging with the Government of National Unity (GNU). 
Abdelaziz Sam, legal secretary for the Transitional Darfur Regional 
Authority and close friend of Minnawi, told Poloff on July 17, 
"Minni has no reason to come back to Khartoum. He has things to do 
in the field. He is sending a message that the GNU needs to fill 
gaps in humanitarian security." Mohammed Bashir, Minnawi's chief of 
staff in Khartoum, confirmed that Minnawi will remain in Darfur: "He 
is unhappy with the implementation of the DPA, which is not going 
well. He won't stay in Khartoum without developments in 
implementation. He has no intention to come back." Within Khartoum, 
Minnawi's absence is causing his movement to churn with discord, as 
a small group of TDRA officials unsuccessfully approached Government 
of Sudan (GOS) official Nafie Ali Nafie to propose a so-called 
"white coup" that would have the SLM/MM Health Minister in South 
Darfur replace Minni Minawi as Senior Presidential Assistant 
(septel).  Local press reported that Minnawi reassured President 
Bashir via phone that he intends to return to Khartoum to resume his 
duties, but his advisors said they cannot confirm this phone call. 
¶3. (SBU) While Sam denied that SLA/MM is conferring with DPA 
non-signatories on a Darfur political or security agreement, Bashir 
said the movement is in "close dialogue" with non-signatories, 
currently holding meetings in the field and in Khartoum to further 
nascent peace-making efforts. Bashir declined to comment on which 
groups are meeting, but added that Minnawi would likely return from 
Darfur to Khartoum after a "narrow circle of insiders" reach a 
conclusion on how to advance the political process. Although Minnawi 
has not been reachable by phone for several days, his commanders 
have confirmed he is ready to meet CDA Fernandez on Thursday, July 
24 in Umm Barro, North Darfur. Minnawi jokingly told Fernandez by 
phone on July 20 that "your visit will determine whether or not I 
return, especially if the regime blocks you again from visiting 
me." 
¶4. (SBU) Following last week's meetings in Geneva between 
representatives of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and 
SLA/Unity (ref. A), political leaders within JEM were optimistic 
about the prospects for peace talks. Gibreil Fideil, Khalil 
Ibrahim's brother, told Poloff from his home in London, "We are 
working on a roadmap to peace, and we are ready to move to the next 
stage. We expect contact with the new mediator (Bassole) very soon." 
When asked about rumors that JEM field commanders are planning an 
imminent march on Khartoum or other locations outside Darfur, Fideil 
denied these reports. "If there is room for a peaceful solution, 
then we are ready - we are open to negotiations and that's our 
priority." Fideil strongly denied that JEM took part in the July 8 
attacks on UNAMID, noting that JEM's leadership had condemned the 
attack, and suggested that breakaway commanders from SLA/Unity had 
masterminded the attacks which killed 7 UNAMID peacekeepers. Omer 
Abdulhamid, JEM's political representative in El Fasher, echoed 
Fideil's regard for increased cooperation among JEM and other rebel 
groups, as seen in Geneva, and reported that JEM has begun working 
together with political representatives from SLA/Abdulwahid, with 
the goal of forming one unit in any upcoming negotiations. 
¶5. (SBU) Speaking with Poloff at the embassy July 17, Abdelgasim 
Seifeldin, brother-in-law of the rebel-in-exile Abdulwahid, told 
Poloff that a broad swath of Darfuris are preparing a list of 
demands as a precondition for talks with the government.  He said 
representatives from civil society organizations and some armed 
rebel movements intend to finalize their plans at a meeting in 
Arusha, Tanazania July 28-29.  (Note: It appears that the Arusha 
meeting is being organized by Tijane Sesse, a well-regarded former 
governor of Darfur.  The meeting does not appear to be sponsored by 
any particular NGO nor is it sponsored by the UN, but rather is an 
informal meeting of Darfurian intellectuals/civil society and 
apparently some representatives of SLA/AW as well. End note.) 
Politically aligned with the SPLM but an active voice for his fellow 
Darfuris, Seifeldin sees Darfuris themselves as the only ones 
capable of uniting the various factions, leaders and movements. 
Citing a Sudanese expression, he told Poloff, "Only a turtle knows 
 
KHARTOUM 00001093  002 OF 002 
 
 
where to bite another turtle." After recounting his previous trips 
to the United States, Seifeldin noted that financial assistance 
would be necessary should the international community be interested 
in supporting a political conference before the end of the year. 
¶6. (SBU) Spokesman of SLA/Unity Mahgoub Hussein called Poloff from 
his London home several times this past week to express his delight 
following the Geneva meetings. "SLA/Unity has good cooperation with 
international organizations, and with the Justice and Equality 
Movement," and later added, "We would like for representatives from 
SLA/Unity to travel to America just like Minni Minnawi." After 
denying that commanders from SLA/Unity perpetrated the UNAMID 
attack, Hussein informed Poloff of rumors in the Sudanese diaspora 
that ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo intends to charge two 
SLA/Unity commanders with war crimes, specifically for the October 
2007 Haskanita attack against Nigerian peacekeepers. "If (SLA 
commander Abubakr) Kado and another commander are charged by the 
ICC, and if the ICC issues the warrants, SLA/Unity will cut them 
from the movement and surrender them to the ICC," claimed Hussein. 
 
¶7. (SBU) JEM's military spokesman released a statement accusing 
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) of bombing an isolated village near 
Jebel Moon, in West Darfur, on Friday, July 18, killing two, but 
UNAMID sources were unable to confirm the bombing. The El Fasher 
office of the UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) was only 
able to confirm that one SAF improvised bomber (an Antonov or C-130) 
and two SAF Mig fighter aircraft had bombed an uninhabited area near 
the village of Tarantara, in South Darfur near the junctions of the 
three states, on Thursday, July 17. Frazer King of UNDSS surmised 
that this may have been a dry run for a larger operation, but had 
not received word of any subsequent SAF aerial bombardment. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: Minnawi's extended stay in Darfur has made 
Khartoum very nervous, but the arrival of the rainy season and signs 
that there is not (yet) an overt cooperation agreement between JEM, 
SLA/U, and SLA/MM should reassure Khartoum that a repeat performance 
of the JEM attack on Khartoum is not likely at the moment.  We don't 
discount the possibility of a JEM attack on sites in Darfur or 
Kordofan, however.  It is interesting to note that there is 
significant positioning occurring among the rebel movements and even 
with civil society groups in advance of engagement in earnest by the 
Chief Mediator.  Post will report additional information about the 
proposed meeting in Arusha when it becomes available. 
 
FERNANDEZ