VZCZCXRO6253
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1057/01 1961056
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141056Z JUL 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1333
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001057 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM - APRIL SHOWERS BRING JULY RESHUFFLES 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ministerial absenteeism rates have soared in Juba 
as talk of a comprehensive reshuffle of SPLM ministers and 
commissioners in both Khartoum and Juba gains increasing 
credibility.  Reportedly, presumptive candidate lists were frozen in 
mid-June as Vice President Riek Machar objected to a "Dinka-heavy" 
list of appointees, and back-room negotiating has continued in the 
days since.  GOSS officials, diplomatic observers, and assumed 
candidates themselves maintain a reshuffle is inevitable: Pagan Amum 
must be replaced in Khartoum, the seat of the late SPLA Affairs 
Minister Dominic Dim Deng must be filled in Juba, and President Kiir 
has publicly committed himself to the appointment of a second female 
governor in the South.  Whether that becomes Presidential Advisor 
Rebecca Garang or GNU State Minister for Energy and Mines Angelina 
Teny Machar will demonstrate much about the SPLM some two months 
after the party's national convention. END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------------- 
THE VACANCIES: ACTUAL AND PRESUMED 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The SPLM has a possible six vacancies to fill at present: 
GNU Minister for Cabinet Affairs, GOSS Minister for SPLA Affairs, 
Presidential Advisor for Decentralization, and should the movement 
to install Arop Moyak in Abyei hold, the Chairman of the Southern 
Sudan DDR Commission.  Changes within the SPLM Constitution will 
also require that the GOSS Health Minister and the Chair of the 
Southern Sudan Peace Commission step down in order to assume the 
SPLM state chairmanships in Unity and Eastern Equatoria states, 
respectively. 
 
¶3. (SBU) However, FM Alor told ConGen July 12 that Secretary General 
Pagan Amum and Kiir have agreed to a modified policy by which state 
party chairs can choose their fate: either keep their current 
ministerial slots or relinquish their SPLM state chairman titles. 
(COMMENT: Such a move effectively blunts Vice President Riek 
Machar's pre-convention machinations to install "his people" into 
positions of leadership within the party, and hands a sizeable 
leadership victory to Kiir, whatever the outcome. END COMMENT). 
Blue Nile State Governor Malik Agar has told ConGen staff he wishes 
to resign as the state's governor in January 2009 in order to 
concentrate on the affairs of the party - Kiir could move to replace 
him now, should Agar's skills be deemed more useful elsewhere.  This 
would, however, be a tremendous loss for Blue Nile state during a 
critical time.  The SPLM General Secretariat remains to be 
established, and some party insiders believe that various 
undersecretaries may be transitioned from the ranks of the 
Government of Southern Sudan into the party's administrative organs 
- as a means of assuaging otherwise bruised egos. 
 
------------ 
SPLA AFFAIRS 
------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The position of SPLA Affairs Minister has been vacant since 
the May 2 air crash that killed Dominic Dim Deng. Despite thrice 
refusing the position since 2005, SPLA Chief of General Staff Oyai 
Deng Ajak says he is now interested in the job - but insiders 
believe that Kiir is unlikely to award it to him. Undersecretary for 
Regional Cooperation (and presidential insider) Cirino Hiteng Ofuho 
told ConGen PolOff that he believes Kiir's decision rests between 
either Ajak or Jongelei Governor Kuol Manieng. However, Ajak remains 
vocal in his criticism of Kiir to ConGen staff, particularly with 
respect to forthcoming elections and internal matters affecting the 
SPLM.  Despite his propensity for reconciliation, it is unlikely 
Kiir would want to place such a voice in his cabinet. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Jongelei Governor Kuol Manieng remains the favored 
candidate among the military's rank and file, who believe he will 
ensure they are paid on time.  Manieng's candidacy is also supported 
by Rebecca Garang, a purported candidate for Jongelei's 
gubernatorial vacancy should Manieng accept the ministerial post. 
The Governor himself has been circumspect about the possible move. 
At the margins of the National Convention, he told ConGen that he 
was not interested in the position, but would be willing to go where 
Kiir needed him. Despite recent public statements rejecting the 
position, diplomatic observers and contacts in Bor believe he will 
accept the position if asked by Kiir. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Manieng's critics (and in some circles, competitors) are 
less tight-lipped. Rival dark-horse candidate and retired SPLA 
Brigadier General Garang Mabil described Manieng as "rude and 
rigid," and was undeterred by arguments that perhaps increased 
discipline was what the SPLA now needed.  Mabil countered that the 
SPLA required better, and more visionary leadership, before 
launching into a derisive and dismissive attack on the Chief of 
General Staff.  Mabil, evidently confident in his own abilities on 
the battlefield, is apparently not alone in that belief.  The SPLA 
 
KHARTOUM 00001057  002 OF 003 
 
 
has pressed him into service to lead stabilization and civilian 
disarmament activities in Warrap State, where recent tribal clashes 
have displaced an estimated 11,000 people.  Before his current 
assignment in Warrap, he was stationed, despite his reserve status, 
in the Abyei region, and charged with overseeing Misseriya OAG 
integration into the SPLA.  "Had I still be there," he commented 
with no lack of self-aggrandizement, "the Abyei crisis would have 
never occurred." 
 
¶7. (SBU) UN sources believe Unity State Governor Taban Deng Gai is 
also a candidate for the ministerial position, but Post is less 
convinced.  Despite being wildly unpopular in his state, and faced 
with a near-daily battle of defending himself from personal attacks 
by supporters of GNU State Minister for Energy and Mines Angelina 
Teny Machar, Kiir quashed internal dissent within the state SPLM 
Chapter on July 4, publicly stating before a crowd wielding 
anti-Taban placards that "I did not come to Bentiu to remove Taban, 
because I believe he is doing a fine job of managing the affairs of 
this state, and he has my full trust and support."  According to 
SPLM officials traveling with the Chairman, Kiir then pulled SPLM 
leadership aside to chastise them at length, noting "if you want 
(GOSS Health Minister) Montieng to be Governor, you must elect him 
in 2009." 
 
------- 
FINANCE 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Vice President Riek Machar is actively campaigning for the 
removal of Finance Minister Kuol Athian Mawien.  Machar has agitated 
for Dinka Minister Paul Mayom to be placed on the chopping block as 
well; while Mayom is likely safe, some in the GOSS believe Mawien's 
performance during the Sudan Donor Consortium negatively impacted 
the size of international contributions, and while the President has 
supported his policies to date, the Minister has been unable to 
rectify the financial damages wrought by Juba's first finance 
minister, sacked in 2006 for credible charges of corruption.  Some 
in the GOSS believe current Minister for Information Gabriel 
Changson Chang could become Finance Minister, while still others 
indicate that the role could be filled by Nhial Deng Nhial.  Nhial 
himself is coy about what ministerial positions he is being pressed 
to accept by Kiir and "local constituents."  While Changson was 
regarded as an adept minister fully capable of keeping suspect 
director generals in check, UNDP Technical Advisor Fiona Davies does 
not believe the Finance Ministry could withstand its fourth 
leadership reshuffle in three years, and has offered that viewpoint 
to Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng. 
 
-------------------- 
REGIONAL COOPERATION 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Arguably, the most disturbing chatter about a government 
reshuffle remains the possibility of Lam Akol being inserted as 
Minister for Regional Cooperation.  Not so much a page out of the 
"keep your enemies close" playbook as a numbers game, Undersecretary 
for Regional Cooperation has allowed that if Akol were to be placed 
in the job he personally would move to another function within the 
Ministry of Presidential Affairs - "I will not work for him."  While 
few are thrilled with such a possibility, SPLM insiders argue that 
Kiir is fairly certain the GOSS Health Minister, under pressure from 
Machar, will step down from his ministerial position to assume the 
Unity State SPLM Chairmanship, and current Regional Cooperation 
Minister Barnaba Benjamin holds the correct medical credentials to 
take on this portfolio. 
 
--------------- 
WOMEN GOVERNORS 
--------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The drama of the SPLM National Convention -- the 
near-subterfuge by Vice Chairman Riek Machar and prima donna antics 
of Secretary General Pagan Amum -- were surpassed by President Salva 
Kiir Mayardit's public concession that the Government of Southern 
Sudan was not doing enough to visibly support the SPLM's mandate of 
"25% representation for women" and his commitment to appoint a 
second women governor in the South.  During speeches at the SPLA's 
silver jubilee one week later, Rebecca Garang made it clear that she 
considered herself a candidate.  Should Garang's recovery from 
surgery in London make her unable to accept a gubernatorial slot, 
Teny's appointment in Unity (despite the political baggage of being 
married to the VP) becomes more likely, particularly as Kiir moves 
to cement Machar's loyalty to the party and blunt his criticism that 
the new leadership will not be "diverse enough for the needs of the 
South." 
 
¶11. (SBU) GNU State Minister for Energy and Mines Angelina Teny 
 
KHARTOUM 00001057  003 OF 003 
 
 
Machar has actively and directly courted the votes of Nuer in Unity 
State - her husband's bank-rolling of Governor Taban Deng Gai's 
ouster as SPLM State Chairman has been regarded by many as the 
opening salvo of his wife's gubernatorial campaign. Senior GOSS 
officials opine that should Teny take the seat in Bentiu, Gai would 
assume her duties in Khartoum - a reshuffle similar to that which 
occurred between erstwhile Jongelei Governor Philip Thon Leek and 
present Governor Kuol Manieng. 
 
-------------- 
MACHAR'S EDICT 
-------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Despite widely held belief that Machar's own standing 
within the GOSS is safe despite active discussions during the SPLM 
National Convention to remove him from the Vice Presidency, Machar 
continues to work his own slate of candidates for a reshuffle.  He 
has reportedly met with Kiir on three separate occasions to discuss 
the need for "an ethnic balance" within the cabinet, with allegedly 
little reaction by the President.  Minister for Industry and Mines 
John Luk Jok opined to ConGen that Machar would be better served by 
placing his energies behind saving his wife's career in Khartoum. 
"Angelina has done absolutely nothing for us," Jok argued, "she is 
always traveling to Bentiu to disturb Taban, her interactions with 
me are marginal, and her reports to the party superficial.  The 
Chairman continues to be frustrated by her performance." 
 
-------- 
KHARTOUM 
-------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) As he noted to us in May and reconfirmed more recently, 
Pagan Amum is shortly due to step-down as GNU Cabinet Affairs 
Minister in order to devote himself fully to his duties as SPLM 
*Secretary* General.  Foreign Minister Deng Alor professed ignorance 
as to Kiir's plausible candidates for Amum's position, noting only 
that "the decision was a difficult one," and that Kiir continued to 
meet with party officials on the subject.  CDA has been informed by 
Pagan himself in Khartoum that Akol may be in the running for the 
Cabinet Affairs position, however.  Despite his continued antics in 
Upper Nile State which recently pitted Amum's Shilluk faction 
against Akol's Shiluk faction in the sacking of the Speaker of the 
State Assembly, Kiir and Akol reconciled following Akol's humble 
appearance before Kiir in the period following former GNU State 
Minister for Justice Alieu Alieu and SPLM GNU Presidential Advisor 
Telar Deng's dismissal from the SPLM. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Kiir's expected reshuffle appears to be an additional step 
toward party consolidation following the SPLM National Convention. 
Moreover, it appears to be a legitimate attempt to actualize recent 
GOSS Council of Minister discussions on decentralizing government to 
the state level - something that can be effective only with 
high-caliber, and highly capable, ministers in Juba.  SPLA Affairs 
remains the most vital slot to fill in the coming weeks, and the 
most likely to draw scrutiny from Khartoum.   Mawien's removal from 
Finance would be unfortunate, but it could serve to make the SPLM 
immune from fresh corruption allegations in the run-up to the 2009 
elections.  Should it hold, the most significant development in any 
of the machinations outlined above is Kiir's continued - and 
seemingly increasingly successful - moves to contain Machar.  That 
alone should strengthen GOSS and SPLM performance considerably in 
the months to come. 
 
FERNANDEZ