VZCZCXRO2977
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1027/01 1911515
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091515Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1282
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001027 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CENSUS DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN MARS AFTERMATH OF SUDAN 
ELECTION LAW APPROVAL 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Recent stories in the Sudanese press purporting to 
present "preliminary census results" are a fabrication, with no 
basis in fact.  Post has confirmed with the local UNFP office, 
heavily involved in the entire census process, that scanning of the 
raw census data has not even begun, so no preliminary figures exist. 
 Individuals close to the SPLM are viewing the misleading newspaper 
stories, using completely fabricated data, as a "media blitz" being 
mounted by pro-NCP media outlets and journalists.  These sources 
suspect the disinformation campaign is designed to sour prospects 
for intra-Presidency discussions set for later this week.  The 
Government of Southern Sudan has issued public statements aiming to 
calm southern outrage in the face of media reports that put the 
South's population below even 1983 levels.  SPLM insiders and 
staffers within the GOSS Presidency claim the move is indicative of 
continued NCP unease about forthcoming elections, and reflects an 
attempt by them to stall meaningful discussions on Abyei-related 
issues.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) On July 8, the rabidly anti-SPLM Arabic newspaper Al Sahafa 
published what it claimed were "authorized census figures" endorsed 
by the national Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) that placed the 
South'Q"g^kkM Deputy 
Secretary General Anne Itto, dismissed the publication as a 
"laughable intimidation tactic."  She commented that "the use of 
presumably dated figures only demonstrates Khartoum's return to 
tried-and-true tactics of disinformation and misinformation." 
 
UNFP DISMISSES NEWS REPORTS AS FALSE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Jimmy Musok, Sudan representative of the United Nations 
Population Fund (UNFP), laughed when told by Embassy Poloff of the 
newspaper stories.  "I can categorically say that those articles are 
not true," he said.  He explained that the scanning of raw census 
data will not even begin until August 1, making it unlikely that any 
preliminary census results will be available before the end of 2008. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Southern Sudan Commission for the Census and Statistical 
Evaluation (SSCCSE) Chairman Isaiah Chol was more heated on the 
subject.  Reached by ConGen PolOff July 8, he asserted that it was 
impossible to obtain any results from the census this early in 2008. 
 Both the SSCCSE and CBS were still retrieving completed census 
forms from collections centers throughout the South.  UNMIS/Juba 
confirmed that the only forms delivered to the census processing 
center in Rumbek thus far were those for the four states of the 
greater Bahr el Ghazal region.  Additional intra-South deliveries 
have been stalled by President Bashir's decree grounding Russian 
aircraft in Sudan. 
 
¶6. (SBU) First notified of the press reporting by ConGen staff on 
July 8 (Al Sahafa is not circulated in Rumbek) SSCCSE Chairman Chol 
and his deputy expressed "absolute disbelief" at the media 
reporting, and demanded to know the source of the data.  On July 9, 
Chol held a press conference denouncing the articles, and calling 
for a similar statement by his national counterparts at CBS.  Chol 
rejected the press reports, noting the figures do not reflect the 
South's growth since the 2005 signing of the CPA (substantiated by 
the 2007 Household Health Survey conducted jointly by CBS and the 
SSCCSE), nor do they match up against the number of forms 
distributed by census enumeration teams. (NOTE: CBS has not yet 
released a statement in response to the press stories. Embassy has 
not been able to reach contacts at CBS.  END NOTE) 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  While it is far too early to know that the 
census results may be, even UNFPA mapping put the South at twenty 
percent of Sudan's population, while the SPLM contends it is at 
 
KHARTOUM 00001027  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
least thirty percent.  We are unsure whether to blame low 
professional journalistic standards or political dirty tricks for 
the census misinformation campaign.  If the intent was to rile SPLM 
members and sow even more distrust between the SPLM and the NCP, the 
campaign certainly pushed the right buttons.  The disinformation 
confirms the fears of SPLM members who have long insisted that the 
NCP will stop at nothing to ensure that Southern Sudan's population 
is significantly under-reported in the census, possibly resulting in 
an under-representation in the National Assembly - if accepted by 
both parties.  The more likely outcome is that the result will be 
less than what the SPLM would like (whether accurate or not), and 
the SPLM will reject the result and negotiate a continuation of the 
current status quo. 
 
FERNANDEZ