VZCZCXRO2980
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1026/01 1911514
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091514Z JUL 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1279
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0083
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0245

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001026 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, PRM, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
NSC FOR PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, AND BPITTMAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SP, USAID/W DCHA SUDAN 
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
NAIROBI FOR SFO 
NEW YORK FOR FSHANKS 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI UN SU
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN KORDOFAN - LACK OF INTEGRATION MAY SPUR VIOLENCE 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 967 
 
KHARTOUM 00001026  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
- - - - 
SUMMARY 
- - - - 
 
¶1. (SBU) BEGIN SUMMARY. In a July 4 telephone conversation, Dr. 
Ahmed Saed, SPLM Minister of Finance for Southern Kordofan State 
told a USAID field officer that the security situation in the Nuba 
Mountains IQQ',H{&y=utee, and thus is charged with 
finalizing the recruitment and salary payment of administrators in 
the SPLM-administered areas of Southern Kordofan. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LACK OF INTEGRATION FUELING NUBA FRUSTRATION 
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¶3. (SBU) On July 4, a USAID field officer spoke by telephone with 
Dr. Ahmed Saed, the Southern Kordofan State Minister of Finance. 
During the conversation, Dr. Ahmed expressed concern that his state 
is on the brink of widespread armed conflict.  According to Dr. 
Ahmed, the state has seen increasing militarization and armed 
conflict since the SPLM pullout of the state census.  The pace 
quickened after the mid-May outbreak of fighting in Abyei. Further, 
Dr. Ahmed noted that, as of late June and early July, Nuba SPLA 
soldiers have been returning from deployment in White Nile state, 
the Popular Defense Forces have been remobilizing, and SAF troops 
are building up north of Kadugli town. (NOTE: The UN also has 
signaled a deteriorating security situation in Southern Kordofan, 
and on June 30, elevated the state from security phase II to III. 
END NOTE.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) Dr. Ahmed indicated that Southern Kordofan's Nuba 
population is becoming increasingly frustrated by the lack of CPA 
implementation.  As a result, the Nuba are losing confidence that 
the CPA will result in an acceptable situation in the state, and 
they have begun to consider returning to conflict as a means of 
acquiring adequate rights. (NOTE: The Nuba SPLM's recent rejection 
of state census results is a further example of their dismissing CPA 
implementation in Southern Kordofan. END NOTE.) 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
POLICE DEMAND INTEGRATION, THREATEN VIOLENCE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to Dr. Ahmed, two weeks ago, 100 SPLM police 
officers arrived in Southern Kordofan's capitol Kadugli, and 
threatened a return to violence if they were not paid salaries.  The 
SPLM police claim to have 3,000 officers.  Currently, the GOSS pays 
the salaries for 1,500 to maintain security, until they are 
integrated into the state GNU.  The GOSS does not support the 
remaining 1,500 police officers because the GOSS argues that the 
additional officers joined the police force after the signing of the 
CPA. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00001026  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to Dr. Ahmed, the primary measure of CPA 
implementation and the main source of increasing frustration among 
the Nuba as the lack of progress to integrate Southern Kordofan. 
Therefore, he sees the current period as the last chance to maintain 
peace in the state, noting that "if there is no integration in the 
next two months, then it is over."  When pressed to clarify this, 
Dr. Ahmed indicated that no integration would happen after two 
months because after that, the Nuba will have returned to conflict. 
When asked what could be done to avoid this, Dr. Ahmed replied that 
if state administrative and police integration move forward 
immediately and people in SPLM-administered areas know of the 
progress and of future steps toward integration, the current 
situation would calm. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -VISIT BY 
FORMER SPLA GENERAL FUELS INCREASING TENSIONS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (SBU) Dr. Ahmed also noted that the arrival in Southern Kordofan 
of Ismail Jalab Khamis has further agitated the current situation. 
According to Dr. Ahmed, Ishmael, the former SPLM governor and SPLA 
general of Southern Kordofan arrived in Kadugli July 2 and has been 
traveling to SPLA-controlled areas of the state, particularly the 
former SPLA garrison towns of Tima and Julud.  Dr. Ahmed indicated 
that the nature of Ismael's trip is unknown, raising local 
suspicions and tensions.  (NOTE:  Ismail is widely regarded as 
having been an ineffective governor, but an astute military planner, 
which is likely behind the above-mentioned suspicions.  END NOTE.) 
 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
PLANS TO MITIGATE SITUATION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) According to Dr. Ahmed, in order to mitigate the current 
situation in Southern Kordofan, the state government needs to 
immediately include SPLM administrators and police on the GNU 
payroll and follow up with a local capacity-building program.  Two 
committees have been recently set up to facilitate state 
integration:  the Administrative Integration Committee, chaired by 
Dr. Ahmed and tasked with finalizing recruitment and paying 
administrators in SPLM-administered areas; and the Police 
Integration Committee, chaired by Phillip Mundari, the head of 
Southern Kordofan's SPLM police, and tasked with finalizing state 
police integration. 
 
¶9. (SBU) A national committee, including Malik Agar, SPLM governor 
of Blue Nile State, Abbas Juma, the SPLM's GNU State Minister of 
Interior, and Ahmed Neroun, NCP Advisor to the President, arrived in 
Kadugli on July 5 to discuss state integration.  In hopes of calming 
the current situation, the SPLM members of the joint SPLM-NCP state 
committees plan to focus on immediately informing administrators and 
police in SPLM areas about the integration process. According to Dr. 
Ahmed, SPLM police are currently being mobilized at assembly points 
in Um Sirdida (South of Kadugli and north of the SPLM/A headquarters 
at Kauda) and Julud (north of Kadugli) to be briefed on integration 
plans and to verify force numbers. (NOTE:  On July 9, Malik Agar 
announced that 1,500 SPLM police are being integrated into the state 
GNU.  END NOTE.)  In addition, committee members are writing 
proposals to request logistical and technical support for the 
integration process.  In the coming days, the proposals will be 
presented to USAID for consideration and/or referral to other 
potential donors. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
POSSIBLE POLITICAL BLOCKAGES TO INTEGRATION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶10. (SBU) Dr. Ahmed stated that the joint integration committees 
plan to prepare information on integration and present it to the NCP 
Governor, accompanied by a request that the governor issue decrees 
to implement the process. (Reftel describes how the SPLM Deputy 
Governor's inaction has delayed integration, leading to Dr. Ahmed's 
recruitment.)  During the July 4 phone call, Dr. Ahmed remarked that 
the current undertaking will be a final test of the governor's will 
to integrate Southern Kordofan.  If he fails to act, the Nuba will 
interpret this as a sign that the CPA never will be implemented. 
 
KHARTOUM 00001026  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
(NOTE: In recent weeks, Bellandia, the NCP Nuba chair of the state 
parliament has been calling for the NCP Misseriya Governor to step 
down from his post, citing his biased hiring and development 
policies, which have marginalized the Nuba with respect to 
Misseriya.  The governor's failure to issue the integration decrees 
likely would increase Nuba calls for him to step down.  END NOTE.) 
 
- - - - 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶11. (SBU) The mid-May SPLA-SAF fighting in Abyei, combined with 
state-specific factors, has increased tension and militarization in 
the Nuba Mountains.  By early July, factions of both armies and 
proxy militias were positioned in the vicinity of Kadugli, giving 
even a local clash the potential to erupt into widespread armed 
conflict.  Widespread conflict in Southern Kordofan is likely to be 
more complex than the Abyei situation, potentially involving an 
array of factionalized armed groups including forces from the SAF, 
various competing SPLA factions, Hawazma and Misseriya PDF, SPLM and 
government police and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).  If 
violence erupts in Southern Kordofan, the effects also would likely 
be more widespread and more difficult for national actors to 
mitigate and to effectively restore order than the previous, more 
linear conflict in Abyei.  The recent agreement to integrate 1,500 
SPLM police should ease the threat of this group destabilizing 
Southern Kordofan.  That it took intervention by a committee 
including the governor of Blue Nile state to resolve the issue 
highlights the weak leadership capacity in the Southern Kordofan 
state government (and this seems to be true of both the NCP and 
SPLM) and its potential negative impact on moving CPA implementation 
forward and maintaining stability. 
 
¶12. (SBU) USAID will consider logistical and technical support to 
implement integration and will encourage the participation of other 
donors if they are better positioned to provide the required 
support.  Embassy Khartoum will continue to engage with the key 
political actors to push for rapid integration in Southern Kordofan 
in an effort to head off the slow and steady drift towards violence 
in the Nuba Mountains. 
 
FERNANDEZ