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DE RUEHIL #2400/01 1971153
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151153Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7783
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 4245
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 3709
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 8849
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3510
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 8285
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 0014
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 5757
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 4533

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 002400 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAID EAGR ETRD PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: REQUEST FOR PL-480 EMERGENCY FOOD AID TO PAKISTAN THROUGH 
THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM 
 
REF: A.ISLAMABAD 0669 
B.ISLAMABAD 1705 
C.ISLAMABAD 1715 
D.ISLAMABAD 1914 
E.ISLAMABAD 2061 
F.ISLAMABAD 2107 
¶G. KABUL 1254 
¶H. ISLAMABAD 2250 
¶I. ISLAMABAD 2233 
 
¶1. (SBU) The following is an action request.  Please see paragraph 
¶12. 
 
SUMMARY 
- - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary:  In Reftel I, Post recommended six food aid 
options for assistance to Pakistan - three options with existing ESF 
resources and three options with additional resources.  This message 
provides subsequent information for option three in Reftel I in 
advance of the forthcoming World Food Program (WFP) appeal which 
will be issued soon. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Post recommends a positive response to this request with an 
allocation of up to USD 30 million in grant PL-480 emergency food 
aid as a partial response to Pakistan's current food crisis.   The 
proposed WFP emergency relief response is targeted for Pakistan's 
most vulnerable groups and includes distributions that begin in 
October 2008, and will continue for twelve months to  reach an 
estimated 1.8 million severely food insecure Pakistanis.   End 
Summary. 
 
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN REQUESTS FOR FOOD AID 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (SBU) Reftels and USDA country reports document Pakistan's food 
crisis and USG-GOP official discussions of Pakistan's food security 
issues.  These meetings included a) the May 18 POTUS-PM Gilani 
meeting in Egypt; b) the June 5 Rome World Food Conference meeting 
between the Secretary of Agriculture and the GOP's Minister of 
Agriculture, Food and Livestock (MINFAL); and c) the June 6 meeting 
between the GOP's Additional Secretary, MINFAL, USDA's Deputy Under 
Secretary Gaibler, USAID and others. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On June 16, MINFAL summoned Post's Agricultural Counselor 
and USAID Officer to the Ministry to again request U.S. food aid. 
During this meeting MINFAL officials expressed concern about the 
growing domestic shortages and warned of worsening conditions before 
the December-March pre-harvest lean season if relief is not 
provided.  This meeting was followed by a June 20 MINFAL letter to 
the Embassy requesting that USDA provide "emergency food assistance 
through Government to Government grant . . .or food assistance 
through USAID and WFP." 
 
GOP MEASURES TO AUGMENT FOOD SUPPLIES 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Wheat scarcity this early in the wheat marketing year is 
an unusual phenomenon and has alarmed GOP officials.  Food demand 
normally spikes upward during Ramadan which begins this year in the 
first week of September.  The new government wants to ensure that 
there are adequate food supplies during this period.  Well-informed 
GOP officials worry privately that staple food prices are likely to 
peak further during the November-March lean period and spark unrest. 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The GOP has taken steps to augment supply, including the 
Trading Corporation of Pakistan's recent June-July tenders for 
approximately 656,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat, and GOP estimates 
that an additional 2 million MT will be needed during the next 6 
months.  Most of this imported bulk wheat will be sold through urban 
retail outlets. 
 
INTERAGNECY FOOD NEEDS ASSESSMENT MISSION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
ISLAMABAD 00002400  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) In response to the food crisis and GOP requests, the UN 
organized a WFP/FAO/UNICEF/UNDP "Inter Agency Assessment Mission" 
that quickly fielded a six person team to began work in-country in 
early June.  WFP/Rome recently released its preliminary draft of 
their assessment report.  It confirms that between June, 2007 and 
June, 2008 in Pakistan's food deficit provinces, the prices of the 
staple wheat flour more than doubled, placing severe pressure on the 
household budgets of the very poor who normally spend approximately 
60-70 percent of their total income on food.  Using the GOP's 
2005-06 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) as a 
baseline, the UN/WFP assessment found that the number of Pakistanis 
consuming less than 1,700 kilocalories per day, and therefore 
classified as "severely food insecure", increased by 8 million - 
from 37 million to 45 million.  Almost two thirds of these 45 
million "severely food insecure" persons live in the rural areas. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The initial results of this assessment mirror earlier 
Embassy assessments of Pakistanis inability to afford food. 
According to the preliminary draft, since the food crisis began 
approximately 8 million additional Pakistanis have fallen into the 
"severely food insecure" category.  Of this 8 million, the greatest 
increases have been in the rural parts of the North West Frontier 
Province (NWFP) province which has seen a 56 percent increase.  The 
report recommends that WFP/Pakistan "intensify its current 
activities and introduce new initiatives in partnership with other 
UN agencies and NGOs to support the GOP in its response to the 
current food crisis."  We expect that as a result of this assessment 
WFP/Rome will soon issue an appeal for an estimated USD 82 million 
Emergency Operation, the details of which have been provided to 
embassy personnel and described in brief below.  Post recommends 
that Washington agencies support this appeal with approximately USD 
30 million in PL-480 emergency assistance to cover combined 
commodity and logistics costs. 
 
RISING FOOD COSTS AND SHORTAGES HURT PAKISTAN'S POOR 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) There is widespread agreement that much of Pakistan's 
current food crisis is the result of self-inflicted policy and price 
distortions which are a disincentive for farmers to produce and an 
incentive for grain traders to smuggle wheat to Afghanistan, India 
and Iran where the prices are much higher. Nonetheless, retail 
prices paid by the typical Pakistani have soared, particularly for 
wheat and vegetable oil - Pakistan's two most important staples. 
According to the World Bank's 2008 World Development Report and the 
United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) 2008 Human Development 
Report, 17 percent, or approximately 27 million Pakistanis, live on 
a dollar a day or less, compared to 23 percent for Ethiopia, or 17 
million Ethiopians.  Another 100 million Pakistanis live on USD 2 
per day or less. As these statistics demonstrate, extreme poverty 
remains a reality for most Pakistanis who spend 70 percent of their 
total income on food, and even in good times, struggle to make ends 
meet.  The recent food price increases have had a disproportionate 
impact on these poor, and WFP's proposed emergency programs are 
targeted at these households. 
 
WFP-PROPOSED EMERGENCY RELIEF OPERATION 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶11.  (SBU) WFP is proposing several responses, one of which is an 
Emergency Relief Operation (EMOP) appeal.  Current plans for the 
EMOP appeal are to reach 1.8 million recipients in the hardest hit 
areas through NGO-organized Food for Work activities, with a small 
amount of EMOP food aid used for direct distribution to destitute 
and vulnerable groups.  This EMOP would begin this October/November 
and operate for twelve months until after the next wheat harvest. 
The WFP is also working with the GOP's MINFAL, other donors and UN 
agencies to design additional emergency food relief activities, such 
as enhanced school feeding operations in the 20 most food insecure 
districts, beginning as early as August. 
 
ACTION REQUEST FOR PL480 RESOURCES TO SUPPORT WFP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --- 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00002400  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Action request:  Post proposes that the USG provide grant 
food aid to support part of the expected WFP appeal for a one-year, 
targeted, WFP Emergency Operations Program that in total will 
require 6,600 metric tons (MTs) of refined vegetable oil in tins and 
90,000 MTs of bagged wheat.  We recommend that the U.S. contribution 
not exceed USD 30 million in combined commodity and logistics costs. 
 Post recommends that USAID, USDA and relevant Washington agencies 
review this request urgently and advise.  End action request. 
PATTERSON