VZCZCXRO3930
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0857/01 2050808
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230808Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8172
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4933
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000857 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PHUM SOCI PREL PGOV VM
SUBJECT: LEADERSHIP CHANGES AT MFA, HANOI CITY GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: HANOI 482 
 
HANOI 00000857  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has added three vice 
ministers, although with some of the four current ministers likely 
to take other positions how many total vice ministers the ministry 
will have remains to be seen.  There is speculation that the changes 
lay the groundwork for current MFA Vice Minister Pham Binh Minh to 
take over as Foreign Minister, but contacts who regularly interact 
with senior Party officials say Minh will not be moving into this 
position any time soon.  Meanwhile Hanoi Party Secretary and 
Politburo member Pham Quang Nghi will stay in his position under the 
new expanded Hanoi governing structure (Reftel).  Party contacts say 
some Politburo members wanted the current Danang Party Secretary to 
serve as Hanoi People's Committee Chairman (the number two position 
in the new Hanoi structure), but that Nghi and his Politburo allies 
successfully fought the proposal.  End Summary. 
 
How Many Vice Ministers for MFA? 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is in the midst of 
re-arranging vice minister portfolios, with a formal announcement on 
responsibilities expected "soon."  Three career diplomats have 
become vice ministers: Doan Xuan Hung, Nguyen Quoc Cuong and Ho Xuan 
Son.  It is not clear how many vice ministers the MFA will have 
after all the dust settles.  If none of the current vice minister 
slots are eliminated, the MFA would have a total of seven vice 
ministers. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Currently, the four other vice ministers are Pham Binh Minh 
(Americas, Europe and Middle East), Vu Dung (Northeast Asia), Dao 
Viet Trung (Protocol) and Nguyen Van Tho (Southeast Asia).  Drawing 
on his background as former vice chairman of the National Border 
Affairs Committee, Ho Xuan Son will cover border issues in his new 
position. 
 
Has Pham Binh Minh's Time Come? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Some local commentators and foreign diplomats say the 
changes lay the groundwork for Vice Minister Minh to become Foreign 
Minister (FM).  They suggest that the MFA, to avoid being too top 
heavy, could reduce the number of vice ministers to three.  If two 
of the current seven vice ministers retire or take on 
ambassadorships, the ministry would be left with four vice ministers 
and Minh could move up to FM in this scenario. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Minh has unique strengths as a possible FM.  He is the son 
of Nguyen Co Thach, who participated in the Paris Peace talks and 
who as FM in the late 1980s tried but failed to re-establish 
diplomatic relations with the United States.  Minh also is a 
non-voting member of the 181-person Party Central Committee and, 
unlike the current FM, speaks excellent English. 
 
¶6. (SBU) However, a contact with excellent Party and GVN ties on 
July 21 told Poloff it is "unlikely" Minh will take over as FM any 
time soon.  At 49 years of age, Minh is still relatively young, this 
contact explains.  While he may have presided over some important 
diplomatic successes, such as planning and executing Prime Minister 
Nguyen Tan Dung's recent visit to Washington, the Party has 
determined that the person in the FM slot should be on the Politburo 
as well, this contact says.  Minh currently is a non-voting member 
of the Central Committee (CC) and, for him to ascend to the 
Politburo, he likely would have to become a voting CC member first, 
according to this contact.  In addition, some senior leaders remain 
pleased (NFI) with Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem's management of 
Vietnam's foreign affairs, this contact asserts. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Another contact who is close to former Foreign Minister 
Nguyen Manh Cam (who was FM when Vietnam normalized relations with 
the USG) notes that Minh is well-educated and has an important 
patron in PM Nguyen Tan Dung.  However, the fact that Minh is Nguyen 
Co Thach's son may actually hurt his chances of becoming FM, this 
contact explains.  This is because many current Party leaders have 
bad memories of Thach carrying out General Secretary Le Duan's 
policy of tilting Hanoi "too heavily" toward the Soviet Union and 
"ignoring China," the contact says. 
 
The Party Line-up in Expanded Hanoi 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In other personnel news, the Communist Party of Vietnam on 
July 14 announced that Pham Quang Nghi, Poliburo member and current 
Hanoi Party Secretary, will remain in his position in the new 
expanded Hanoi governing structure (Reftel).  A total of five deputy 
secretaries, with two from neighboring Ha Tay Province, will serve 
under Nghi.  As part of the plan to roll Ha Tay provincial 
administrators into the expanded Hanoi governing structure, the 
 
HANOI 00000857  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Party created new deputy secretary positions as well as other 
positions.  The new expanded Hanoi Party Executive Committee is 
scheduled to hold its first meeting on August 1. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Party contacts tell us some Politburo members wanted 
current Danang Party Secretary Nguyen Ba Thanh to serve as Hanoi 
People's Committee Chairman (the number two position under Nghi). 
These Politburo members wanted Thanh in this position so he could 
drive economic and infrastructure development in the capital area, 
these contacts say. (Note: Thanh is known to have done well in 
Danang city planning. End Note).  However, Party Secretary Nghi and 
his Politburo allies successfully scuttled the proposal, these 
contacts add. 
 
Comment: Minh's Star on Rise, Thanh's Appeal Fading? 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶10. (SBU) If Vice Minister Minh continues to deliver successes in 
Hanoi's relations with Europe and the United States, he would be 
well-placed to follow in his father's footsteps and become FM. 
However, he clearly has some work left to do in convincing officials 
not in PM Dung's camp that he could deftly carry out Hanoi's foreign 
policy of balancing the "big powers" and is the right man for the 
job. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment Continued: As for the personnel moves in Hanoi, 
Danang Party Secretary Thanh would have shaken things up here. 
However, bringing leaders from central Vietnam into northern Party 
cliques historically has proven difficult.  Many Party and business 
contacts regard Thanh as one of the most control-minded Party 
Secretaries in the country; nothing gets done in Danang without his 
approval.  Because he focused on economic development, he helped set 
the stage for future growth but may have outlived his usefulness to 
the city.  Businesses -- both local and foreign investors -- openly 
complain about Danang's stifling bureaucracy and opaque 
decision-making. 
 
¶12. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Ho Chi Minh City. 
 
MICHALAK