VZCZCXRO3688
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0235/01 1921106
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101106Z JUL 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1743
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3182
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000235 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BJP DECLARES OPEN SEASON FOR POACHING KARNATAKA'S 
LEGISLATORS 
 
REF: CHENNAI 231 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Closer cooperation between the two opposition 
parties in the South Indian state of Karnataka has, as expected, led 
the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to start encouraging 
opposition party members to defect.  Four members of the legislative 
assembly (MLAs), two from the Congress Party and two from the Janata 
Dal (Secular) Party (JDS) have already bolted, allegedly for cash 
payments and ministerial positions offered by the BJP.  The BJP's 
tactics look likely to drive the Congress and JDS, still reeling 
from their drubbing in the May legislative assembly elections, into 
closer cooperation.  This newfound collaboration, while fragile, 
could assist the UPA both in the likely confidence vote over the 
civil nuclear agreement and in national elections required before 
May 2009.  End summary. 
 
Open season on opposition MLAs 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) The July Fourth weekend created fireworks in Karnataka as 
the BJP's much-anticipated poaching of opposition MLAs began in 
earnest, with the party bagging four members of the opposition.  The 
four MLAs, two from Congress and two from the JDS, resigned their 
seats and announced teir intention to run in by-elections as BJP 
canddates, as required by India's anti-defection law. The 
resignations lowered the number of seats in he 224-member assembly 
held by the opposition fro 108 to 104. 
 
¶3. (SBU) A BJP spokesperson told u that his party's encouragement 
of the defection became necessary because of attempts by the 
Conress Party to bring down the BJP government.  Our ongress Party 
interlocutors told us that their paty had not attempted anything of 
the sort, claimng that the BJP was inspired more by its own fear 
that its thin majority (it holds 110 seats and isbolstered by the 
support of six independent MLAs might collapse.  The Congress 
members told us tht the party would work hard to insure that its 
cndidates defeat the defectors in the required by-eections. 
(India's anti-defection lw requires defectors to resign their MLA 
seats and contest a by-election within six months.)  Media reports 
and some of our contacts suggest that the defectors were lured with 
"bags of money" and ministerial posts.  Three of the four former 
MLAs will be offered ministries on July 10, according to one report. 
 (The BJP government has expanded the state's cabinet to include a 
whopping 34 ministers, or one ministry for every 3.4 members of the 
majority.) 
 
Cooperation may help Congress in the national elections 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Although there is still much bad blood between the Congress 
Party and JDS in Karnataka (the JDS brought down a Congress-JDS 
coalition government in 2006 to form a ruling coalition with the 
BJP), the two parties have gradually increased their cooperation 
since the May legislative assembly elections.  Not only did they 
coordinate their votes to select members to the Rajya Sabha (upper 
house of parliament) and Karnataka's legislative council, they also 
worked in tandem to wrong-foot the BJP on the issue of alleged 
fertilizer shortages in the state. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Several of our interlocutors in Karnataka have said that 
this cooperation points to a possible electoral alliance in the Lok 
Sabha (lower house of parliament) elections, which must take place 
before May 2009.  Congress Lok Sabha member Tejasvini Gowda told us 
that she is actively promoting Congress-JDS cooperation.  She said 
that the two parties could secure at least half of Karnataka's Lok 
Sabha seats if they worked together.  Roshan Baig, a Congress Party 
Karnataka MLA, told us that such an alliance would be "the only way" 
that his party could get a majority of Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha 
seats.  H.D. Revanna Gowda, son of JDS leader and former Prime 
Minister Deve Gowda, told us that he expects the two parties' 
cooperation to lead to a "long-term relationship."  (Comment:  The 
two parties tend to compete for many of the same voting blocs.  This 
often splits these blocs, allowing a third party -- usually the BJP 
-- to win a particular district.  Running joint candidates, or not 
challenging each other in particular districts, could prove a 
powerful electoral strategy in the state.  End comment.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The cooperation between the JDS and Congress Party in 
Karnataka is still fragile, but headed in a direction suggesting it 
will continue to strengthen.  Nationally, it appears that the two 
JDS members in the Lok Sabha from Karnataka will side with the UPA 
in the anticipated confidence vote.  This bodes well for an alliance 
in the coming national polls, but the time between now and May 2009 
represents more than a few lifetimes in India's often unpredictable 
politics.  End Comment. 
 
 
CHENNAI 00000235  002 OF 002 
 
 
HOPPER