VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJB #0396/01 2131939
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311939Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1069
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0003

UNCLAS BUJUMBURA 000396 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
H PLEASE PASS TO CODEL PAYNE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP MARR PGOV PREF PREL BY
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CODEL PAYNE 
 
REF: A. BUJUMBURA 353 
     ¶B. 07 BUJUMBURA 521 
     ¶C. 07 BUJUMBURA 564 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit to Burundi comes as the country 
grapples with the many challenges facing nascent democracies. 
 The last remaining rebel group, the PALIPEHUTU-FNL, signed a 
cessation of hostilities agreement in May following several 
weeks of violent attacks that left over 100 people dead; the 
troublesome details of a permanent peace agreement are being 
negotiated and demobilization of the rebels is underway.  The 
painstaking negotiations between the Government of Burundi 
(GOB) and the PALIPEHUTU-FNL are further complicated by the 
upcoming 2010 elections, as each side vies for support from 
overlapping Hutu constituencies.  In addition to the 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL and the ruling CNDD-FDD party, political 
parties from across the spectrum are staking out strong 
positions in advance of only the second round of 
post-conflict elections.  The "winner take all" politicking 
has also greatly affected the National Assembly, and CNDD-FDD 
parliamentarians ended a one-year plus legislative stalemate 
through a constitutionally questionable dismissal of 22 
uncooperative lawmakers in June (ref A).  The National 
Assembly has functioned normally since the dismissals. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Burundi must also meet the challenges of addressing 
a rising HIV/AIDS problem, developing a post-conflict economy 
in a country with few natural resources, ending widespread 
corruption at every level, continuing democratization, 
demobilization, and security sector development, and 
improving healthcare, education and its human rights record. 
The GOB has taken a major step towards becoming a larger 
player in African affairs by contributing troops to the 
African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL at odds with GOB 
-------------------------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) Despite a 2006 cease-fire agreement, the 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL launched a series of mortar and rocket attacks 
in and around Bujumbura in April, leading to clashes with GOB 
forces that left more than 100 dead.  A measured and 
militarily successful GOB counterattack, combined with 
international pressure and an ultimatum that the rebels 
return to talks or face expulsion from their Tanzanian 
refuge, brought the PALIPEHUTU-FNL back to negotiations in 
the capital in May.  The parties signed an agreement 
declaring an immediate cessation of hostilities May 26, but 
still face significant stumbling blocks before a lasting 
peace is achieved.  While over 2400 rebel combatants reported 
to a containment camp on July 21, they handed over less than 
40 weapons to their African Union guards, a gesture seen as 
disingenuous by the GOB and many international observers.  It 
would be helpful if you would encourage Burundian government 
officials to finalize negotiations with the PALIPEHUTU-FNL to 
ensure a durable peace and set the stage for free, fair and 
transparent elections in 2010. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Demobilization and Security Sector Reform 
------------------------------------------ 
¶5.  (SBU) The World Bank has pressed Burundi to reduce its 
ethnically-balanced military from 27,500 to 25,000 troops and 
its police force from 18,000 to 15,000.  At the same time, as 
part of the peace deal, the GOB will likely agree to 
integrate a large portion of the largely Hutu PALIPEHUTU-FNL 
into the already-overlarge security forces (while the 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL claims 15,100 combatants, most observers put 
the number closer to 5,000).  Maintaining the 
constitutionally-mandated ethnic quotas in the security 
forces and finding livelihoods for those who will be 
demobilized will pose significant problems.  The primary 
funding source for demobilization comes from the 
Multi-Country Demobilization and Reintegration Program funded 
by the World Bank and other bilateral donors; these funds are 
due to expire at the end of 2008. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Professionalization of the security forces is also 
critical, as significant numbers of the police and army are 
former rebels themselves and have received little formal 
security training.  While the Dutch and the UN in particular 
are assisting police and military leadership in developing 
their professional capacities, further support and attention 
would likely lead to increased stabilization in post-conflict 
Burundi. 
 
------- 
AMISOM 
------- 
¶7.  (SBU) With significant U.S. support, in late 2007 the GOB 
deployed an 850-strong battalion on its first ever overseas 
mission in support of AMISOM.  The battalion, and three 
additional battalions which will augment/relieve the first 
battalion, received extensive training through the State 
Department-financed Africa Contingency Operations Training 
and Assistance (ACOTA) program.  A second battalion is 
scheduled to deploy before the end of the fiscal year, and is 
currently awaiting delivery of additional equipment. 
 
--------------------- 
Democracy Challenges 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Upcoming 2010 Presidential and Parliamentary 
elections are profoundly affecting politics and political 
discourse in Burundi. Generating political dialogue among the 
GOB, civil society and political parties at this early stage 
could help prevent potentially devastating consequences 
(including the violent aftermath that plagued Kenya), which 
could occur as a result of poorly planned and executed 
elections.  There is a genuine need to educate political 
parties, security forces and the general public on their 
roles, responsibilities and reasonable expectations during 
and after a democratic election. PALIPEHUTU-FNL 
demobilization, the return of tens of thousands of refugees 
who dispute ownership of long-abandoned plots, significant 
hikes in food and fuel prices, and a fractious political 
climate are genuine causes of concern in the run-up to 2010. 
The GOB has published guidelines for a re-established 
independent Electoral Commission, but has so far failed to 
name any candidates.  It would be helpful if you would urge 
your GOB interlocutors to quickly name and approve a truly 
independent Electoral Commission to ensure free and fair 
elections. 
 
--------- 
HIV/AIDS 
--------- 
¶9.  (SBU) The prevalence of HIV infection has increased from 
3.5% in 2002 to 4.2% in 2007, and more than 265,000 of 
Burundi's 800,000 orphans are the result of HIV/AIDS.  Data 
from antenatal clinics show a sharp spike in infection rates 
among patients aged 15 - 24; infection levels doubled from 
8.6% in 2004 to 15.5% in 2005.  U.S. programs, valued at $3.1 
million, have been implemented in three provinces and urban 
Bujumbura, reaching 2.4 million people in a country of eight 
million.  The Department of Defense is also providing testing 
and consultation services to Burundian military personnel; a 
clinic is planned in the near future.  As the only bilateral 
donor implementing comprehensive programming, the U.S. 
provides anti-retroviral treatment, care and support, 
prevention education, and system strengthening.  However, 
Burundi receives significantly lower levels of PEPFAR funding 
than neighbors Tanzania, Rwanda, Zambia, Kenya, Uganda and 
the Democratic Republic of Congo, risking Burundian lives and 
regional reinfection. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Refugee returns taxing scant resources 
---------------------------------------- 
¶10.  (SBU) According to UNHCR, over 42,000 refugees have 
returned to Burundi in 2008 following the closure of several 
refugee camps in Tanzania.  This return has proved difficult 
for the GOB to accommodate due to the country's scant 
national resources, and has prompted increasing conflict over 
land ownership in densely populated Burundi.  While the 
majority of the refugees fled ethnic conflict in Burundi in 
1993, more than 5,000 recent returnees have lived outside 
Burundi since the ethnic violence of 1972.  The Government of 
Tanzania has offered citizenship to the 1972 group still 
residing in Tanzania, but more than 40,000 individuals have 
opted to return, often without land, family or even the 
language of their native Burundi.  UNHCR expects that up to 
90,000 refugees from 1972 and 1993 will return in the next 
two years as the UNHCR closes out its camps in Tanzania. 
 
------------------------------------ 
National Assembly Functioning Again 
------------------------------------ 
¶11.  (SBU) After a year-plus stalemate in the National 
Assembly that created significant public frustration and 
ill-will, the Parliament is once again functioning normally. 
The dismissal of 22 CNDD-FDD parliamentarians that supported 
deposed CNDD-FDD party president Hussein Radjabu rather than 
President Nkurunziza broke the legislative deadlock, but was 
constitutionally questionable and widely criticized by 
politicians and NGOs. 
-------------------------------------------- 
Economy, Business Development and Education 
-------------------------------------------- 
¶12.  (SBU) Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the 
world. Per capita GDP in the Maryland-sized nation is 
approximately $118, and Burundi recently ranked 167 out of 
177 in the UN's Human Development Index. The mainstay of the 
Burundian economy is agriculture, which accounts for almost 
half of GDP. Approximately 90 percent of the labor force is 
dependent on subsistence farming.  The main cash crop, 
coffee, accounts for more than half of export earnings. Other 
principal exports include tea, sugar and raw cotton.  USAID 
is the lead donor coordinating private sector development, 
and is active in developing the specialty coffee and 
agribusiness sectors, as well as providing increased access 
to microfinancing.  USAID focuses on agribusiness, and 
developing Burundi's potential for generating income and 
employment for the agriculture-based population. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) In order to support Burundi's higher education 
initiatives, USAID is funding a partnership between the 
University of Ngozi and a U.S. Land Grant University.  The 
to-be-chosen U.S. university will help the University of 
Ngozi establish links with Burundian agribusiness 
entrepreneurs and improve Burundian capacity to conduct 
agricultural research. 
 
---------------------- 
Widespread Corruption 
---------------------- 
¶14.  (SBU) The local NGO, Association Fighting against 
Corruption and Public Funds Embezzlement (OLUCOME), recently 
listed 2629 cases of government corruption since 2002 that it 
believes have resulted in a loss of more than $250 million in 
public funds.  The two most high-profile corruption cases are 
the sale of the Presidential plane in 2006 to a low-bidder 
(ref B) and the irregular payment to oil-importing company 
Interpetrol in summer of 2007 (ref C).  Although a 
Parliamentary Commission has been set up to investigate the 
opaque circumstances surrounding the sale of the Presidential 
plane, no one has yet been charged nor has the Commission 
released any findings.  In the aftermath of the Interpetrol 
scandal, the Governor of the Central Bank was arrested and 
awaits charges in prison; the Minister of Finance fled the 
country and is subject to an Interpol red alert. 
 
------------- 
Human Rights 
------------- 
¶15.  (SBU) NGOs maintain that the GOB needs considerable 
improvement in its human rights record, particularly as it 
transitions out of a post-conflict situation.  Army, police, 
and intelligence services are accused of abuses, including 
rape, torture, arbitrary arrest, beatings, murder and 
corruption.  PALIPEHUTU-FNL combatants have also been accused 
of a wide variety of offenses, including extortion, theft, 
rape and murder.  Local NGO Ligue Iteka reported that 71 
individuals were killed by security forces in 2007, although 
that figure has yet to be verified.  Human Rights Watch also 
published a 40-plus page report this year that accuses the 
intelligence services of torturing over 21 alleged 
PALIPEHUTU-FNL sympathizers in 2007.  A bill to give women 
the same inheritance rights as men sits stalled in the 
National Assembly with little political support for its 
passage. 
WAGNER