VZCZCXRO0068
RR RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM
DE RUEHBR #0922/01 1911035
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091035Z JUL 08 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2069
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0327
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN 0346
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 0502
RUEHUP/AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 0320
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0364
RUEHOR/AMEMBASSY GABORONE 0323
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0329
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0330
RUEHSJ/AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE 0850
RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA 0309
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0545
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5678
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0471
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 6378
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3896
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 2549
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4658
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6953
RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN 1540
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 7461
RUEHPO/AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO 1594
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4183
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 8252
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 2386
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6385
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DOE WASHDC
RUEHC/DOI WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DOJ WASHDC
RUEAEPA/HQ EPA WASHDC
RUEANAT/NASA HQ WASHDC
RUCPDC/NOAA WASHDC
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHRC/USDA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 BRASILIA 000922 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS USAID LAC/RSD,LAC/SAM,G/ENV,PPC/ENV 
TREASURY FOR USED IBRD AND IDB AND INTL/MDB 
USDA FOR FOREST SERVICE: LIZ MAHEW 
USDA FOR FOREIGN AGRICULTURE SERVICE:CJACKSON 
INTERIOR FOR DIR INT AFFAIRS: KWASHBURN 
INTERIOR FOR FWS: TOM RILEY 
INTERIOR FOR NPS: JONATHAN PUTNAM 
INTERIOR PASS USGS FOR INTERNATIONAL:JWEAVER 
JUSTICE, ENVIRONMENT NATURAL RESOURCES:JWEBB 
EPA FOR INTERNATIONAL: CAM HILL-MACON 
USDA FOR ARS/INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH: GFLANLEY 
NSF FOR INTERNATIONAL: HAROLD STOLBERG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV EAGR EAID TBIO ECON XR BR
SUBJECT: AMAZON FOREST STRESSED BY FIRE AND CLIMATE CHANGE 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  001.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST RESILIENCE 
 
¶2.  While there is variation among climate change models predicting 
the future of the Amazon rainforest, the highly-regarded Hadley 
Centre model (HadCM3LC) simulations indicate that the 21st century 
will bring increased Amazon warming and dryness, particularly 
southern parts of the Amazon rainforest.  HadCM3LC, a fully coupled 
land-atmosphere global climate model incorporating plant physiology 
and photosynthetic response, further suggests that future decades 
will bring a climate-driven substitution of forests by savannah and 
semi-arid vegetation, described as an Amazon forest 'dieback', a 
term originally coined by Carlos Nobre, of the Brazilian Institute 
for Space Research (INPE).  Regions predicted to be most affected by 
climate change and reduced precipitation include: the eastern, 
southeastern, and southwestern Amazon basin, in particular the 
tri-border region with Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru.  The northwest 
Amazon basin (Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Peru) is likely to 
maintain high rainfall levels owing to the collision (rise and 
condensation) of trade winds with the north central Andean chain. 
 
¶3.  Climate models such as HadCM3LC do not however, account for the 
effects of rapid land-use change, fire-induced forest degradation, 
and current localized Amazon rainforest climate change.  The 
synergistic factors of deforestation, forest fragmentation, fire, 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  002.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
and regional climate change suggest that the Amazon biome in the 
21st century may be even more vulnerable than climate models 
predict, according to Daniel Nepstad (formerly Woods Hole Research 
Center, currently Moore Foundation) and colleagues.  NOTE: A biome 
is defined as a regional ecological community characterized by 
distinctive plant and animal species.  END NOTE. 
 
¶4.  Recent research by Sampaio and Nobre (INPE) indicates that land 
clearing (including land conversion for agricultural use) that 
exceeds 30 percent of regional forest area may cause declining 
precipitation, resulting in a positive feedback loop that 
exacerbates forest drying and increases forest susceptibility to 
further degradation.  On the shortest time scale, fire may also 
inhibit regional rainfall by liberating particulate matter into the 
atmosphere, disrupting natural condensation and precipitation 
patterns. 
 
DROUGHT AND FIRE AS DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION 
 
¶5.  With climate models indicating increased air temperatures and 
decreased precipitation over the Amazon forest, droughts of greater 
frequency, duration, and intensity are predicted.  Such droughts 
increase forest vulnerability by decreasing water uptake and 
increasing the quantity of dry organic material that fuels fires, 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  003.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
often pushing forests over a flammability threshold, and creating 
conditions that lead to more intense and severe fires.  Recent 
experiences with regional drought point to the 2005 season in the 
southwestern Amazon basin(Bolivia-Brazil-Peru MAP region), that 
resulted in the burning of over 300,000 hectares of normally 
fire-resistant primary forest due to anthropogenic (human-set) 
fires.  Over US$50 million in direct economic losses were reported 
in the region.  NOTE: If these forests are allowed to recuperate 
naturally, portions of the burnt forest may recover, reducing net 
losses.  END NOTE. 
 
¶6.  Most of the forests in the Amazon basin maintain full leaf 
canopies during dry seasons of three to five months, indicating a 
high tolerance to regularly occurring short-term droughts.  After 
three or more years of intermittent drought, however, forest 
structure begins to breakdown and even large trees begin to die. 
Although the response of forests to prolonged drought has the 
potential to be slow and gradual, the dynamics of resistance are 
fundamentally altered when fire and other disturbances (i.e., 
insects, disease, wind) are brought into the equation.  In 
particular, the intensive use of fire in preparing land for 
agriculture (and the leakage of fire into surrounding forests), 
threatens to push the region through a 'tipping point', 
transitioning the vegetation to a more rapidly degraded scrub 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  004.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
system, according to Nepstad and colleagues.  NOTE: Although 
slash-and-burn fire setting has been a traditional indigenous 
agricultural practice for centuries, broader industrial-scale 
burning, in combination with a drier climate, poses a greater risk 
to forest health than historically recorded.  END NOTE. 
 
¶7.  Beyond regional climate change, Amazon basin land-use changes 
from agricultural and infrastructure expansion (Part 1 of this 
series) also contribute to increased forest fire susceptibility via 
three primary mechanisms:  forest fragmentation, selective timber 
harvesting, and increase of ignition sources.  Fragmented forests 
are highly fire vulnerable due to the creation of drier conditions 
along forest edges and the rapid growth of grasses, ferns, bamboo, 
lianas, and flammable tree species.  Uncontrolled selective logging, 
which can damage up to 50 percent of the leaf canopy, also increases 
forest fire susceptibility.  When a tree (old growth) dies, a canopy 
gap is created, allowing penetration of sunlight that acts to warm 
and dry the forest floor.  Tree mortality can be an initial step 
that triggers a process of further forest degradation. 
 
¶8.  In modern times, fire has played a significant role in shaping 
the forest structure and composition of tropical ecosystems.  Most 
tropical rainforest trees are poorly adapted to fire stress; even 
low-intensity wildfires can lead to unusually high levels of tree 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  005.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
mortality.  In fact, under conditions of moderate climate change 
(warmer and drier conditions) fire is considered a stronger driver 
of forest change than long-term drought stress.  Fire-induced forest 
alterations can drastically change forests by selecting for a suite 
of fast-growing pioneer species that mimic a young second-growth 
forest stand.  The post-fire, second-growth forest stand offers 
profound reductions in ecosystem services such as water and nutrient 
cycling, as well as carbon sequestration, owing to the fact that 
these pioneer species accrue a lower biomass (store less carbon). 
 
REGIONAL ACTIONS TO REDUCE FOREST VULNERABILITY AND "TIPPING POINT" 
RESPONSE 
 
¶9.  In regions throughout the Amazon biome, sustainable forest 
management (an economic alternative to land conversion for 
agricultural use) and integrated fire management represent growing 
priorities for the Amazon rainforest in terms of forest and habitat 
conservation, biodiversity protection, and reduction in greenhouse 
gas emissions.  COMMENT:  Brazil, ranked among the top five 
greenhouse gas emitters worldwide, is particularly motivated to 
reduce the incidence of Amazon rainforest fire.  Currently 75 
percent of Brazil's gas emissions are attributed to deforestation 
and forest fires.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  006.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶10.  Several actions offer opportunities to conserve Amazon 
rainforest by slowing the pace of land conversion, forest 
degradation, and dieback: 
 
-- Promoting sound land stewardship among landholders and compliance 
with environmental legislation; promoting responsible sourcing of 
key Amazon commodities including timber, soy, sugar cane, and palm 
oil; specifically promoting low-impact timber harvesting and forest 
certification. (Such compliance is necessary for participation in 
commodity markets and for access to financing.)  NOTE: Bolivia, with 
a much smaller portion of Amazon biome land area, has more certified 
forest than Brazil.  END NOTE. 
 
-- Restricting the advance of cattle ranching and industrial 
agriculture into the Amazon biome.  (Roughly one-quarter of 
previously forested lands in the Brazilian Amazon biome are in some 
stage of abandonment; most are degraded cattle pastures.) 
 
-- Adopting an integrated fire management strategy for the 
Pan-Amazon basin region that will reduce the use of fire as a land 
management tool, reduce the environmental effects of fire use, and 
promote investment in fire prevention and control, and in land 
restoration. NOTE: recent basin-wide initiatives have met resistance 
in Brazil due to concerns over sovereignty and a perceived foreign 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  007.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
management of natural resources. END NOTE. 
 
-- Protecting areas in the pathway of the expanding agricultural 
frontier via a multiple-stakeholder, participatory regional planning 
processes.  NOTE: Ecosystem integrity is best maintained via large 
protected areas rather than a patchwork quilt of non-contiguous 
areas.  END NOTE. 
-- Creating economic incentives to promote preservation and 
restoration of abandoned Amazon forest land, and to reward 
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions related to deforestation and 
agricultural fires. 
 
¶11.  Integrated forest fire management (prevention, control, 
incident-response, and managed fire use) may play an important role 
in maintaining the integrity of the Amazon biome.  For Brazil in 
particular, fire reduction is a critical step in reducing national 
greenhouse gas emissions.  Research by Nepstad and colleagues 
suggests that during periods of drought, simple forest conservation 
and elimination of direct deforestation may not be sufficient; 
active forest fire management, prevention and control may also be 
needed, as was pioneered in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso in 
2002 and Acre during the drought of 2005, when national, state, and 
municipal efforts were coordinated to deploy authorities and fire 
fighting units. 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  008.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
NEED FOR INTEGRATED FOREST FIRE MANAGEMENT 
 
¶12.  A missing element in the current development model for the 
Amazon rainforest is adequate agricultural and forestry extension 
assistance and community provision of information on land use, fire 
management, and seasonal weather patterns.  Amazon regions with high 
migrant populations also have extremely high turnover rates among 
farmers and ranchers.  Newcomers to the region lack nuanced 
understandings of the local climate, ecosystem, agricultural 
practices, and sustainable forestry methods, exacerbating the 
vulnerability of their lands to extreme weather events, droughts, 
and flooding. 
 
¶13.  Opportunities are ripe for USG collaboration on integrated fire 
management themes including: development of fire management 
strategies and policies for the Amazon basin, capacity building and 
interagency coordination, remote monitoring, incident command 
training, fire prevention and management, management of slash and 
burn, ecosystem restoration, and environmental education. 
 
¶14.  The US Forest Service and the US Office of Foreign Disaster 
Assistance (OFDA) have long histories of collaboration and capacity 
building in the Amazon basin region, touching on themes including: 
 
BRASILIA 00000922  009.2 OF 009 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY.  This is the second in a two-part series addressing the 
impacts of climate change and fire (Part 2), and agricultural 
expansion and infrastructure integration (Part 1) on Amazon 
rainforest vulnerability and conservation.  Most climate change 
models predict a 21st century warming and drying trend for the 
southern Amazon basin.  In combination with forest fragmentation, 
this warming trend will create a feedback loop of increasing forest 
vulnerability to fire, drought, and continued climate change. 
Researchers predict that Amazon rainforest vulnerability is 
approaching an ecological "tipping point" that could result in a 
climate-driven transition from rainforests to savannah and semi-arid 
vegetation.  However, collaborative, Amazon basin governance efforts 
could reduce forest degradation via regional fire prevention 
strategies to prevent and control undesirable fires, creation of 
protected areas in the path of expanding agricultural frontiers, and 
creation of market mechanisms to balance drivers of extractive 
deforestation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
integrated forest fire management, remote monitoring, fire 
prevention, and forest fire fighting. 
 
¶15.  This cable was coordinated and cleared with Embassies in Lima, 
La Paz, Quito, and Bogota, and USAID and USFS in Washington. 
 
SOBEL