VZCZCXRO1986
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHPW RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHEK #0748 2030728
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 210728Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1225
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNCLS/SCA COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 0741
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0326
RUEHFT/AMCONSUL FRANKFURT 3782

UNCLAS BISHKEK 000748 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR CA/FPP: EHOLMES, CA/VO/F/P: MEARL, DS/CR/VG 
DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC 
POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS 
FRANKFURT FOR RCOS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS KFRD KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Bishkek conducted its first validation 
study of B1/B2 visa issuances.  By combining results from DHS's 
Advanced Targeting System (ATS), Arrival Departure Information 
System (ADIS), and follow-up telephone calls, post examined 100% of 
B1/B2 issuances from May 1, 2007 - September 30, 2007 and discovered 
that only 6.3% of applicants overstayed or adjusted status.  As this 
is post's first ever validation study for B1/B2 applicants, it will 
incorporate lessons learned from its analysis of subjects who 
overstayed when making future adjudication. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
Data Collection and Methodology 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) B1/B2 applicants comprise approximately 46.4 % of Bishkek's 
annual NIV workload.  In order to generate a sample group 
sufficiently large enough to analyze, post looked at all B1/B2 
issuances from May 1, 2007 - September 30, 2007 - which resulted in 
a sample group of 413 individuals.  100% of the sample group was 
submitted to CA/FPP with for assistance in checking arrival and 
departure information via ATS and ADIS.  Due to post's small size, 
it would have consumed significant time and resources to conduct 
telephone inquiries or using ADIS itself.  The initial results 
showed 29 overstays and adjustments of status.  Post then followed 
up with telephone calls to those 29 to confirm that they had indeed 
overstayed and were not data errors.  The follow up calls showed 
that in actuality 26 individuals from the sample group or 6.3% 
overstayed or adjusted status in the U.S. The confidence interval 
was calculated to be +/- 2.33% or that there is 97.67% confidence in 
the results. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Who is applying? The Typical Kyrgyz Applicant 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) By examining the biographical data of issued applicants, 
post looked at the demographics of its NIV population.  The average 
age of Bishkek's applicants in Summer 2007 was 42.  18% of 
applicants were over 60 while 38.74% of issued applicants were under 
35 years of age.  Only 4% of those older than 60 overstayed or 
adjusted status - representing 12% of all overstays.  Only 7.5% of 
those issued who were younger than 35 overstayed. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Bishkek's adjusted NIV refusal rate in FY 2007 was 20.76% - 
with 29.8% refusal rate for B visas alone according to the Visa 
Office's published statistics.  Post rarely sees applicants who 
travel for other than family reasons.  The typical Kyrgyz applicant 
has a daughter or son living in the U.S. and usually have family 
members awaiting their return to Kyrgyzstan.  Grandparents often 
take turns going to the U.S. rather than both being absent 
simultaneously.  Post rarely sees an applicant going for tourism's 
sake alone.  This past winter saw sharp increases in inflation while 
the value of the dollar fell.  Post will be interested to see if 
this change in local economic conditions alters the overstay rate 
for the corresponding period.  Post is very pleased with this 
validation study and plans to conduct another one covering the 
2007-2008 winter/spring months soon.  Post thanks CA/FPP for their 
assistance with ATS and ADIS. 
 
Litzenberger