VZCZCXRO5499
RR RUEHGR
DE RUEHBE #0342/01 2062054
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 242054Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELMOPAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1390
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELMOPAN 000342 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - ROIS BEAL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BH
SUBJECT: POSITIVE SIGNS AFTER FIVE MONTHS IN OFFICE? 
 
REFTEL:  BELMOPAN 314 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) The GOB released the national budget on July 14, addressing 
several of the 21 pledges made in the pre-election United Democratic 
Party (UDP) manifesto.  At first glance, the GOB has demonstrated 
some measurable progress compared to their manifesto and the public 
remains cautiously optimistic.  The real test will be how the GOB 
addresses some of the more profound issues like weak education, 
health care, law enforcement, and judicial systems that have been 
plaguing Belize for the last decade.  End Summary. 
 
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21 PLEDGES AND THE BUDGET 
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¶2. (SBU) Prior to being elected in a landslide victory in February, 
the UDP issued a manifesto - 21 agenda items the party pledged to 
take on while in office.  Shortly after the election the new 
government announced that it would delay the release of the national 
budget stating more time was needed to assess its books.  The budget 
released on July 14 addressed several of the 21 manifesto pledges. 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The budget reflected lower General Sales Tax (GST) flow as 
the GOB eliminated the tax on medicines and certain staple food 
items to alleviate some pricing pressure on the poor.  The GOB also 
allocated funding for training for single mothers, and identified 
potential funding for the refurbishment of sugar cane roads in the 
north.  The Prime Minister pointed out that he in principle reached 
an agreement to obtain US$12.5 million in financing for a new 
Development Finance Corporation to provide small loans to spur 
business development.  The budget also provided for a National 
School Feeding Program at the primary school level and the police 
have already completed two summer camps under the Conscious Youth 
Development Programme (CYDP) to help eliminate gang violence. 
 
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THE REST IS NOT SO EASY 
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¶4. (SBU) Education.  While literacy statistics vary, they hover 
around older estimates from a 2000 census of 77%.  Reports agree 
that the literacy rate in Belize has decreased since the 1980s. 
Again statistics vary but indicate that from 45 to 60% of teachers 
are trained as certified educators and many of the teachers in the 
classroom speak Creole rather than English, the country's official 
language.  Most of the schools we have visited personally are in 
need of major structural repairs and upgrades.  Three relatively 
small higher education opportunities exist for students wishing to 
pursue college degrees forcing most interested students to study 
abroad and to look for job opportunities abroad as well. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The GOB recently pledged to create 5,000 jobs in tourism 
but this will be a challenge for two reasons - 1) stay-over visitors 
are down 2.1% and cruise ship arrivals declined 19% in the first 
quarter of 2008, and 2) the education system in Belize is not doing 
a good job training workers.  This forces employers to provide 
lengthy and expensive training programs or source employees from 
overseas to avoid the headache.  Thus far, we are unaware of an 
attempt to establish a baseline using literacy rates or national 
test scores to measure effects of the feeding program or the new 
text books issued last year.  Nor have we seen evidence of planning 
for major improvements including attracting and developing more 
qualified teachers, making physical improvements to schools, 
facilitating nationwide after-school tutoring and sports programs, 
and promoting education as a means of change. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Health Care. Health care in Belize is basic.  Minor 
illnesses and injuries can be cared for locally but most expats and 
many local Belizeans cross the border to Mexico or go to the U.S. 
for treatment of anything more serious than a flu or broken bone.  A 
severe shortage of qualified doctors and nurses exists in the 
country as well as a lack of technical equipment.  Cuban Medical 
Brigade doctors make up a significant part of the medical 
establishment, leaving Belize vulnerable if they were to be 
withdrawn.  The Universal Health Service hospital (UHS), a 
financially failing private hospital, was bailed out by the former 
administration by secretly diverting US$10 million from Venezuela 
just prior to elections. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The money diverted to UHS could have been applied to the 
National Health Insurance program.  This program was launched as 
part of the election campaign of the former government without a 
financing plan.  The current GOB has said it supports the program 
 
BELMOPAN 00000342  002 OF 002 
 
 
but has placed a moratorium on program expansion because funding 
remains an issue.  The government is planning system improvements in 
health care including more honest procurement, improving training, 
sourcing doctors and nurses, and improving infrastructure and 
technology, but all of these take time and money. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Law Enforcement and the Judiciary.  The GOB pledged to 
create a larger police force.  However, the public has little 
confidence in the existing police force for several reasons.  Cases 
of police brutality hit the papers regularly.  Only rarely is a 
police officer dismissed.  Police frequently "lose" their case files 
and sometimes even their memories when presenting a case for trial. 
One recent example occurred during a high profile murder trial 
during which three police officers that made statements they could 
identify the murderer all "forgot" their statements when brought 
into the court room.  The Attorney General (AG) made a recent 
statement that the judicial system in Belize is ineffective.  Some 
of this results from low paid and untrained judges, who have, 
according to the AG, no incentive to bring cases to conclusion. 
 
¶9. (SBU) A larger police force may not be the only solution to 
reducing crime.  Especially when public trust is low and some 
"housecleaning" is needed.  The National Security Ministry wants to 
polygraph the police force, but the project depends on outside 
funding and expertise.  The GOB's focus on establishing a DNA lab 
may be ill-timed when even the Attorney General believes the 
judicial process is largely ineffective and needs substantial 
review. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶10. (SBU) Skyrocketing global food and fuel prices, unforeseen legal 
cases left by the former GOB's improper dealings, and a legacy of 
corruption and mismanaged finances would be a challenge for any new 
government.  In the first five months in office, the new GOB has 
lived up to about one third of the "simpler" campaign pledges.  But 
so far, they are only chipping away at the edges of some of the 
larger systemic problems in the country's infrastructure.  Even the 
presentation of the national budget lacked a compelling overall 
strategic plan.  However, if the government keeps only one pledge of 
"no more corruption", the prospects for the country will be 
brighter.  The real test though will be how the GOB 
addresses the more profound issues like weak education, health care, 
law enforcement, and judicial systems that have been plaguing Belize 
for the last decade.  End Comment. 
 
HILL