VZCZCXRO7863
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0765/01 2101903
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281903Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0228
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000765 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR DS/CC, DS/IP/EUR 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KAWC SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: KARADZIC APPEAL PENDING WHILE PROTEST LOOMS, EAC 
CONVENED TODAY FOR JULY 29 DEMONSTRATION 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 718, B) BELGRADE 744 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia 
(ICTY) indictee and wartime leader of the Bosnian Serbs Radovan 
Karadzic remains in custody at the Special War Crimes Court in 
Belgrade pending receipt of his extradition appeal, which his lawyer 
reportedly mailed to the Special Court.  Serbian officials, 
including President Boris Tadic and ICTY coordinator Rasim Ljajic, 
have been receiving anonymous death threats for arresting Karadzic, 
and the Acting Public Prosecutor has opened an investigation into 
comments against President Tadic by a senior Serbian Radical Party 
(SRS) official.  Small protests against the arrest continued 
throughout the weekend, and the Radicals plan a large rally for July 
29, which Radical officials promise will be peaceful.  A poll shows 
that most Serbian citizens believe in cooperation with the Hague 
tribunal even though most also believe it is biased against Serbia. 
End Summary. 
 
Karadzic Mailed Appeal Just Under Deadline 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Under Serbian law, Karadzic had three days from the court's 
ruling to extradite him to appeal the ruling (Ref A).  A 
spokesperson for the Belgrade District Court told us July 28 that 
the court's Special War Crimes Chamber still had not received 
Karadzic's appeal of his extradition to ICTY.  According to press 
reports, Karadzic's brother Luka stated that Karadzic's lawyer filed 
the appeal just before the deadline Friday, July 25.  Previously 
Karadzic's lawyer Svetozar Vujacic had told press he would mail the 
appeal at the last minute from an unnamed location.  The law 
requires that the appeal be postmarked -- not received -- before the 
deadline.  The press speculated Vujacic mailed the appeal from 
abroad or a small rural post office to delay receipt as long as 
possible.  By law, once the Special Court receives the appeal, it 
has three days to rule but may take less time. 
 
Top Officials Receiving Threats 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) According to media reports, President Boris Tadic, National 
Council on Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal head Rasim Ljajic, 
War Crimes Prosecutor Vladimir Vukcevic, and Interior Minister and 
Socialist Party (SPS) head Ivica Dacic have received a series of 
anonymous threatening phone calls and letters.  In addition, SRS 
officials have made threatening remarks about Tadic.  Senior SRS 
official and MP Vjerica Radeta stated at a July 25 press conference 
that Tadic was a traitor and could share the fate of late Prime 
Minister Djindjic, who was assassinated outside a government 
building in 2003.  SRS Secretary General Aleksandar Vucic supported 
Radeta's statement and also called Tadic a traitor.  Acting Public 
Prosecutor Slobodan Radovanovic has requested the tape and 
transcript of the press conference and is opening an investigation 
into Radeta's comments. 
 
Radical Rally Planned for July 29 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Small nightly protests continued each night through the 
weekend (reftels).  While most of the protests took place without 
incident, on July 24 protestors beat a B92 cameraman, who sustained 
a broken shin and remains in the hospital. 
 
¶5. (SBU) SRS announced a rally for July 29 at 19:00 (local).  Police 
told us that the rally would begin in Republic Square at 19:00, 
followed by a march around the downtown area (note: but not past the 
embassy) and that SRS is cooperating with police to maintain a 
peaceful demonstration.  The police have not yet provided estimated 
attendance, although the expectation is that the July 29 will be 
much larger than the Obraz-organized events of the past several 
days. (One Democratic Party contact predicted that the Radicals 
could mobilize up to 200,000 participants, but we have not heard 
this from our security contacts.)  RSO has an open line with the 
director of police and commander of the anti-terrorism unit 
protecting the embassy. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Vucic announced that SRS would provide 2,000 individuals to 
secure the rally and also personal security for each journalist 
covering the rally.  Vucic called for a peaceful demonstration and 
specifically mentioned that protestors should not burn government 
buildings. Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and New Serbia (NS) 
officials and leaders of ultranationalist groups told reporters they 
would attend.  The event is to be a rally against the "dictatorship" 
of President Tadic, SRS official Nemanja Sarovic said at a press 
 
BELGRADE 00000765  002 OF 002 
 
 
conference. 
 
Belgrade City Assembly Postponed 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) According to press reports, in response to the rally 
announcement, the Liberal Democratic Party proposed postponing the 
scheduled Belgrade city assembly session scheduled for July 28.  LDP 
suggested the postponement because "rhetoric and 
violence from the street could transfer to the city assembly."  The 
assembly speaker declared a lack of quorum when only SRS and DSS 
appeared at the session.  The speaker has yet to schedule the next 
session, which must meet and select a mayor before August 22 to 
avoid new municipal elections.  Most observers remain confident that 
the DS-SPS-LDP agreement to elect Dragan Djilas will hold. 
 
Poll Shows Citizens' Opinions Divided 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) According to a poll by Strategic Marketing for the National 
Council for Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, 70% of citizens 
support cooperation with ICTY even though 86% believe the court is 
subjective and biased against Serbia. 
Just over half of those polled do not support extraditions to the 
tribunal, while 42% are in favor.  The poll also found that 42% see 
Karadzic as neither a hero nor a criminal, one-third consider him a 
hero, and 17% consider him a criminal. 
 
Kostunica Sees Beginning of End of RS 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) In his first interview since stepping down as Prime Minister, 
DSS head Vojislav Kostunica told Serbian daily Glas Javnosti July 28 
that ICTY was an unjust institution and Karadzic's trial would be a 
trial of the legitimacy of the Republika Srpska (RS).  By contrast, 
the Serbian press carried statements by Republika Srpska Prime 
Minister Milorad Dodik that the arrest was a relief for the 
Republika Srpska, which could now move forward in its international 
relations.  Dodik cautioned that Karadzic should be treated as a 
defendant not a convict and expressed hope Karadzic's trial would be 
fair, according to local press.  Local press also reported that 
Dodik offered Karadzic's family assistance in keeping with the RS 
policy of assisting the families of Hague indictees, and requested 
that High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina Miroslav Lajcak 
return the family's passports so they could visit Karadzic. 
 
EAC Meets to Discuss Demonstration 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The EAC met on July 28 to discuss post's security posture 
for the July 29 demonstration.  The embassy will close at 15:00 on 
July 29 as a precaution.  Post has sent out a warden notice and all 
mission personnel have been advised to avoid the downtown area.  The 
EAC deemed post's current security posture adequate. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) While the Special Court is likely to rule quickly against 
Karadzic's extradition appeal, his attorney's technique of mailing 
the appeal could result in several days' delay.  While we have not 
to date seen serious consquences from the small nightly rallies, 
Karadzic's continued presence in town for the big rally on July 29 
could be an incentive for greater turnout.  The poll results confirm 
our assessment that the majority of Serbian citizens know ICTY 
cooperation is a necessary part of Serbia's path to Europe but are 
not yet ready to confront the past.  Given the lack of enthusiastic 
support from the majority of the population for Karadzic, and the 
Radicals' diminished resources to bus participants, a rally on the 
scale of the February events seems unlikely.  Post is nevertheless 
taking all necessary precautions to handle a large, angry, probably 
alcohol-fueled, crowd. End Comment. 
 
BRUSH