VZCZCXRO5588
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0744/01 2061857
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241857Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0192
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000744 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO ASEC SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PUBLIC REACTION TO KARADZIC ARREST MUTED 
 
REF: BELGRADE 718 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Public reaction to the July 21 arrest of Radovan Karadzic, 
indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former 
Yugoslavia (ICTY), thus far has been confined to a few small 
demonstrations by ultra-right groups and Radical Party members, 
although thousands of soccer fans cheered Karadzic at a recent game. 
 Human rights NGOs say the public now understands that the arrest is 
a necessary step in the process of EU integration.  Media coverage 
has been extensive and typical of the character of the media outlet, 
with independent media focusing on the reasons for Karadzic's arrest 
and the tabloids lionizing him.  We will likely not see any mass 
demonstrations, even if the public does not fully support the 
arrest.  The public recognition that Serbia must face forward and 
the government's willingness to effect this politically difficult 
arrest are encouraging.  End Summary. 
 
Small Protests by Right-Wing Groups 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Public reactions to the arrest of Karadzic have thus far not 
been strong.  There have been a few protests from nationalist 
elements (reftel).  Early on July 22, immediately following the 
announcement of the arrest, police broke up a protest by about a 
dozen youth in Republic Square. Another similar group marched across 
from the Special Court. 
 
¶3. (U) The ultra-right group Obraz organized protests on July 22 and 
23 in Belgrade's Republic Square, with Karadzic's brother Luka and 
various Serbian Radical Party (SRS) officials in attendance.  Each 
demonstration attracted 200-300 protestors, sporting t-shirts with 
the images of both Karadzic, fellow Hague indictee Ratko Mladic, and 
Hague defendant and Radical leader Vojislav Seselj.  Protestors 
carried signs urging President Boris Tadic (Democratic Party--DS) to 
commit suicide.  Police told us they intervened on July 22 after 
witnessing vandalism of nearby restaurants and hearing an explosion 
(flares and firecrackers, according to press reports).  Protestors 
on July 23 burned the Socialist Party (SPS) flag and threw beer 
bottles at reporters.  The SRS has announced that it will organize 
its own protest the evening of July 24. 
 
¶4. (U) While the demonstrations have been small, at a July 23 
Partisan soccer game the majority of the 15,000 fans spent the first 
half hour of the game cheering Karadzic rather than their team. 
They also chanted "Kill yourself and save Serbia, Boris Tadic," and 
burned DS and Liberal Democratic Party flags.  (Comment:  Soccer 
club "fans" are also notorious thugs for hire.  The rioter who died 
in the Embassy during the February 21 attack was eulogized as a 
Partizan "fan," and soccer games have been known to morph into 
protests of the events of the day.  Serbian riot police are 
regularly mobilized throughout the city on the night of a soccer 
match.  End Comment.) 
 
No Big Reaction Likely 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Biljana Kovacevic-Vuco of the Lawyer's Committee on Human 
Rights (YUCOM) predicted to  us on July 23 the arrest would not 
provoke any greater demonstrations.  Sonja Biserko of the Helsinki 
Committee for Human Rights in Serbia shared the same assessment, 
explaining that large displays of ultra-nationalism were over -- 
"they were done with this after the reaction to Kosovo."  Biserko 
said the arrest had probably happened due to international pressure 
rather than a domestic desire to confront the past.  "The people are 
not less nationalistic, but they know where their priorities are." 
People were oriented toward a European future rather than the past, 
she said. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kovacevic-Vuco said the government had a responsibility to 
show that it had a new policy of sincerely facing up to the past and 
avoid the ambivalent stance past governments had taken when 
Milosevic and Seselj went to the Hague.  This time it was up to the 
government to portray Karadzic as a war criminal and tell the 
Serbian public that he should be prosecuted and why, she said. 
 
Extensive Media Coverage 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) Local media have been covering the arrest extensively since 
it was announced.  B92 and Fox TV immediately interrupted their 
evening programs and started special programs on the arrest of 
Radovan Karadzic, which lasted several hours and included short 
documentaries on Karadzic, reactions by various public figures, and 
coverage of the Special Court where Karadzic was held.  B92 
continued with a special program almost all day July 22 and July 23, 
including documentaries produced in the wake of the October 5th 
 
BELGRADE 00000744  002 OF 002 
 
 
revolution, with footage of the siege of Sarajevo and information on 
Karadzic's role in it.  Belgrade TV station Studio B prepared a 
special midnight news and non-regular news programs at 1 and 2 am. 
National broadcaster RTS, by contrast, continued with its regular 
program schedule, reporting on the arrest only during the regular 
news program. 
 
¶8. (U) All major dailies on July 22 carried the story on their front 
pages and published the reactions of local and foreign officials, as 
well as details from Karadzic's bio.  Dailies on July 23 and 24 
continued to feature the story on their front pages and with very 
extensive coverage.  The reports in all major dailies were mostly 
factual and straightforward, though the tabloids were consumed with 
the details of his arrest and where he had been living.  Pro-Radical 
Glas Javnosti and Kurir carried interviews and statements by 
Karadzic's biggest supporters. 
 
Impact of Media Coverage Likely Low 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Srdjan Bogosavljevic, head of the polling firm Strategic 
Marketing, said the media coverage, even the vivid footage of 
atrocities committed in Bosnia, would not move a public that viewed 
the ICTY with great distrust.  Strategic Marketing's surveys over 
the years had shown that most people did not want to see the footage 
and believed it was one-sided -- only Serbs were filmed while 
Muslims were committing horrific acts off camera.  Moreover, B92's 
audience was already open to facing the past and had likely seen the 
footage before. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Bogosavljevic said it would be significant if RTS with its 
wider and less-educated audience would show such footage, but he did 
not believe that the government would be able to get the network 
(still controlled by former PM Kostunica appointee Aleksandar 
Tijanic) to support the new party line in the near future.  The 
tabloids, meanwhile, were showing Karadzic as a sympathetic figure. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) It is unlikely that the SRS and DSS, now lacking control 
of state resources, will be able to organize any mass demonstrations 
such as the ones in February to protest Kosovo independence.  The 
lack of strong public outcry, however, is not necessarily a signal 
that the Serbian public supports the government's action.     While 
Serbian citizens may not be fully ready to confront the past, it is 
encouraging that they recognize it is time to face the future -- and 
that they now have a government willing to do so.  End Comment. 
 
BRUSH