VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAM #2133/01 1981317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161317Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3113
INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 6030
RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA 0415
RUEHKU/AMEMBASSY KUWAIT 0906
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 1261
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 5097

UNCLAS AMMAN 002133 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
H PLEASE PASS CODEL REED 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN SCENESETTER FOR JULY 22 VISIT OF CODEL REED 
 
¶1.  (U) Embassy Amman welcomes the visit to Jordan of CODEL 
Reed.  Jordan remains one of the United States' strongest 
partners in promoting peace and security in the Middle East, 
and is active in a broad range of regional engagement 
activities. 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) King Abdullah is approaching his 10th anniversary 
on the throne of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.  He has 
used his stewardship to drive economic and political reform, 
and advocate for stability and moderate governance in the 
region, within the limits of Jordan's influence.  Jordan 
maintains a close relationship with the USG, facilitated by 
strong military and foreign assistance programs.  The King 
will likely have recently returned from a private visit to 
the U.S. when CODEL Reed arrives in Jordan, during which he 
spoke at the annual meeting of the Aspen Institute in 
Colorado, and participated in a yearly conference of 
prominent media and technology executives in Sun Valley, 
Idaho. 
 
Jordan's Engagement with the USG 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Jordan maintains a close relationship with the USG, 
and King Abdullah, a staunch ally, is firmly supportive of 
U.S. priorities and initiatives.  The United States and 
Jordan share a long history of cooperating to achieve shared 
goals, many of which would not be possible without U.S. 
assistance.  Jordan is appreciative of the recent budget 
supplemental which provides $250 million for FY 08 and $200 
million as FY 09 "bridge" assistance.  Jordanians are some of 
the highest per-capita recipients of foreign assistance, 
receiving USD 361 million in ESF for fiscal year 2008, and 
Jordan has historically put economic and security assistance 
to excellent use in furthering the country's capabilities in 
many areas and the standard of living of its citizens.  USAID 
is actively engaged with the GOJ to support Jordan's own 
social and economic reform efforts.  USAID's wide range of 
projects in Jordan strengthens water resources management and 
infrastructure development, local governance, health and 
education systems, the judiciary, tourism, protection of the 
environment, and assists industry while creating economic 
growth opportunities.  Jordan in recent years has received 
FMF in the USD 200-300 million range, evidence of the 
exceptional military-military cooperation.  Jordan sends 
approximately 200 officers under the IMET program annually to 
U.S. military schools and programs.  CENTCOM has its most 
extensive exercise program in Jordan, conducting 12 
multilateral/bilateral exercises annually with Jordanian 
Armed Forces support and participation. 
 
Demographics 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Jordan's population of 6.2 million is split 
primarily between East-Bank Jordanians (Jordanians whose 
families trace their heritage to the East Bank of the Jordan 
River), and Palestinian-origin Jordanians (and their 
descendants) who arrived in Jordan in 1948 after the first 
Arab-Israeli war, and in 1967, following Israel's occupation 
of the then-Jordanian West Bank (King Hussein renounced 
Jordanian claims to the West Bank in 1988).  There are 
approximately 1.8 million UNRWA-registered refugees inside 
Jordan, some of whom live in 13 designated refugee camps. 
The vast majority of Palestinian-origin Jordanians (including 
most of the registered refugees) hold Jordanian citizenship. 
Jordan has hosted hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who fled 
the conflict and its after-effects, and has made efforts to 
extend access to social services to them.  The GOJ is 
reluctant to formally classify the Iraqis as refugees, and is 
sensitive to concerns of key East Bank constituencies that a 
new permanent refugee populace 
 in Jordan would erode yet further the demographic position 
of East Bankers already compromised by the large influxes of 
Palestinians after 1948 and 1967.  The GOJ emphasizes that 
hosting the Iraqis has been a burden on the budget, and seeks 
international aid to ease the implications for their already 
tight fiscal situation.  USD 175 million of Jordan's FY 2008 
economic assistance supplement is intended to aid displaced 
Iraqis in Jordan.  In FY 2007, the USG used USD 10.3 million 
to assist Iraqis in Jordan by funding health and education 
initiatives, and school construction.  In FY 08, the USG has 
made over USD 220 million to international organizations and 
NGOs for assistance to displaced Iraqis in Jordan, Syria, 
Lebanon, and Iraq. 
 
The Economy 
----------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Jordan has few natural resources and insufficient 
water (it is the fourth most water poor country on earth). 
Though phosphates and potash (used to produce fertilizer) are 
top exports, as well as garments to the U.S., Jordan relies 
on its well-educated populace to make up for its lack of 
natural wealth.  A large number of technically-trained 
Jordanians work abroad - primarily in the Gulf and Saudi 
Arabia - and the Jordanian economy depends on their 
remittances. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) King Abdullah has focused heavily on economic 
reforms since his ascension to the throne.  He and his 
advisors continue to foster Jordan's transition from an 
aid-based economy to a self-sustaining, trade-based one.  To 
this end, the GOJ has worked closely with USAID to reform its 
regulatory environment and to encourage foreign investment by 
making the Kingdom a good place to do business.  Indeed, 
Jordan has seen a boom in investment from the Gulf in the 
last few years, and Amman and Aqaba are abuzz with new 
construction and commercial development.  The U.S. has 
emerged as Jordan's leading trade partner, as Jordan's Free 
Trade Agreement with the U.S. (signed in 2001), and its 
Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs - established in 1996 in 
part to promote Israel-Jordan ties) allow for easy access to 
the American market.  Jordan in 2000 joined the WTO, and has 
active trade relationships and agreements with the EU, the 
Greater Arab Free Trade Area, and Singapore.  The Jordanian 
government has been pursuing free trade arrangements with 
other countries, including Canada, Pakistan, Turkey, and 
China.  King Abdullah has initiated a civilian nuclear energy 
program in Jordan to overcome the relentless economic burden 
of importing energy, complemented by efforts to increase 
renewable energy and add other indigenous sources to Jordan's 
energy mix.  Jordan is progressing in privatization, though 
recently, controversial sales of government property have 
generated public debate; after 150 prominent Jordanians 
signed a letter criticizing key sales, the King responded 
with a widely featured interview defending GOJ policy and 
decrying rumor mongering.  Although GDP growth has been 
steady in recent years, and in 2007 growth was estimated at 
5.7 percent, the economic situation is precarious.  There are 
growing concerns that the benefits of economic reform have 
not reached the masses.  The February 2008 lifting of fuel 
subsidies, combined with the global increases in fuel, food, 
and commodity prices, as well as the depreciation of the 
dollar - to which the Jordanian Dinar is pegged - have 
exacerbated economic disparities and led to genuine economic 
hardship. 
 
Politics 
-------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) King Abdullah also advocates political reform, 
though efforts are slowed by a recalcitrant bureaucracy and a 
conservative Parliament.  Parliamentarians for the most part 
hail from East Bank tribes - historically, East Bank tribes 
have been the Hashemites' main pillar of support - and 
accelerated change could alter the long-standing status quo 
they find favorable.  Still, Abdullah has made some progress 
on political reform.  For example, in 2005, he commissioned 
the National Agenda, a document designed to serve as a reform 
roadmap over the next decade.  The GOJ recently enacted a new 
Political Parties Law, which intends to help consolidate and 
strengthen political party activity in the Kingdom, although 
many civil society groups criticized the law for still 
allowing far too much government oversight of parties. 
 
¶8.  (U) The main political opposition (and indeed, the only 
effective political party) in Jordan is the Islamic Action 
Front (IAF), a self-administering branch of the Jordanian 
Muslim Brotherhood (JMB).  Both the JMB and IAF are legal 
entities in Jordan.  They frequently criticize and butt heads 
with the GOJ, but draw the line at criticizing the King. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Jordan in 2007 held both municipal and 
parliamentary elections.  The municipal election on July 31, 
2007 was based on a new law that permitted Jordanians to 
directly elect their mayors and municipal councils (with the 
exception of Amman, where King appoints a mayor, and Aqaba, 
which is governed under a separate model).  The law mandates 
20 percent of council seats for women.  The election was 
marred by the Election Day withdrawal of all IAF candidates 
due to accusations - not corroborated - of voter fraud. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Jordan elected a new parliament on November 20, 
¶2007.  Voter turnout was 59 percent and most seats went to 
East-Bank tribal candidates unaffiliated with any party, just 
as they did in the previous 2003 contest.  In that election 
the IAF had won 17 seats, but in 2007 they only won 6, likely 
an indicator of the declining relevance of the IAF in 
day-to-day politics.  The IAF's platform is based primarily 
on criticizing Jordan's ties to Israel and the USG. The Lower 
House of Parliament consists of 110 deputies, and the upper 
house consists of 55 Jordanian senators who serve four year 
terms on the King's appointment.  The Prime Minister and the 
rest of the cabinet are all appointed by the King; Parliament 
does not form governments, but must vote confidence in the 
new ministers.  Following the election, King Abdullah 
selected as the new PM Nader Dahabi.  Dahabi was previously 
the chief commissioner of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone 
Authority (ASEZA), a project designed to bring prosperity to 
the south of Jordan by turning the port into a free trade 
zone.  Dahabi is also the brother of the LTG Muhammad Dahabi, 
the head of Jordan's General Intelligence Directorate (GID). 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The Jordanian legislature has just completed a 
special session of Parliament.  The most significant laws 
passed were a new Associations Law, and a new Public 
Gatherings Law, both of which came under heavy fire from the 
IAF-led opposition and from civil society groups.  The 
Associations Law's most controversial amendment requires NGOs 
to secure cabinet approval before accepting foreign funding. 
Many Jordanian NGOs are highly reliant on foreign funding, 
and fear this oversight will be used by the GOJ to control 
their activities.  The new Public Gatherings Law makes it 
easier for civil society groups and associations to hold 
private meetings, and decreases the advance notice a group 
must give to the Ministry of the Interior before holding a 
public event or protest.  The law was criticized, however, 
for not going far enough in easing restrictions.  Parliament 
also endorsed some changes to the Jordanian labor law (and 
will debate further changes in their regular session), but 
rejected an amendment that would allow legal foreign workers 
to join labor unions.  Parliament will reconvene in the fall 
per its regular schedule. 
 
Foreign Policy 
-------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Jordanian foreign policy encourages stability by 
supporting moderate governance throughout the region. 
Abdullah has publicly stated that the lack of progress in 
resolving the Israel-Palestinian dispute is the greatest 
threat to stability in the region.  The King is a staunch 
backer of the Annapolis process, and frequently and publicly 
calls for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian 
crisis.  He backs Palestinian Authority President Mahmud 
Abbas, whom he considers the legitimate representative of 
Palestinians in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. 
Jordan's most recent contribution to Palestinian stability is 
its ongoing training of Palestinian Authority security 
personnel at the Jordan International Police Training Center 
(JIPTC - a facility formerly used to train Iraqi police and 
corrections officers). 
 
¶13.  (SBU) King Abdullah has staunchly supported U.S. goals 
in Iraq, including offering support for Iraqi Prime Minister 
Nouri Al-Maliki's government.  Jordan recently selected an 
Ambassador to serve in Baghdad, and PM Dahabi in June hosted 
PM Maliki in Amman.  The visit resulted in the renewal of a 
2006 oil deal between Iraq and Jordan to provide Jordan with 
oil at discounted prices, although consistent implementation 
of the deal was hindered by security and technical issues. 
The King was scheduled to visit Baghdad on July 9th, but the 
trip was postponed. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) King Abdullah has decried Iran's negative 
influence in the Middle East.  In a recent Washington Post 
article, he stated that he did not support military strikes 
on Iran, fearing that it would just give Iran an excuse to 
unleash more instability.  He has been supportive of Lebanese 
Prime Minister Siniora, and condemned the latest outbreak of 
violence in Lebanon. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) The King is an uncompromising supporter of 
moderate Islam and uses his position to promulgate this view. 
 In 2004, he sponsored the Amman Message, which recognizes 
the validity of eight schools of Islamic jurisprudence as 
well as of Sufi and Salafi thought, states that "takfir," or 
the labeling of Muslims as non-Muslims or as apostates, is 
prohibited by Islam, and states that fatwas can only be 
issued by competent authorities or licensed individuals based 
on the legitimate schools of jurisprudence.  Also contained 
in the message are denunciations of terrorism on Islamic 
religious grounds, and an Islamic justification of democracy, 
civil and human rights.  The King continues to use the Royal 
Palace-attached Aal al-Bayt Institute for Islamic Thought to 
institutionalize and coordinate the international spread of 
the Amman Message. 
 
Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman 
Rubinstein