VZCZCXRO6414
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1918 1961413
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 141413Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1285
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7437

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001918 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPKO PBTS PGOV MOPS ET
SUBJECT:  Ethiopia Now Opposes UN Follow-on Mission, for Now 
 
REF: ADDIS 1856 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
¶1. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Ambassador that 
Ethiopia now opposes any UN follow-on mission upon the conclusion of 
UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) operations on July 31. 
Meles echoed the Foreign Minister's position (reftel)that Eritrea 
had so completely undercut the Algiers process and was in clear 
violation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement without any 
sanctions or pressure from the Security Council that Ethiopia did 
not see why a UN follow-on Mission only in Ethiopia would be useful. 
 A follow-on Mission would be used by some Security Council members 
to push Ethiopia on the border dispute without any consequences for 
Eritrea.  To avoid the UNSC giving Eritrea "unnecessary attention" 
and complicit acceptance, or at least minimal criticism, for 
limiting UN operations while Ethiopia continues engaging the UNSC 
without much benefit, Meles believes allowing UNMEE to end with no 
follow-on mission would be the best course.  The Ambassador argued 
against it because it would deny Ethiopia's ability to articulate 
and get its position heard by the UNSC.  Discussions with the 
Ethiopians on a follow-on mission or post UNMEE operation will have 
to wait until after July 31 expiration of the UNMEE mandate.  End 
Summary. 
 
No UN follow-on Mission: 
------------------------ 
¶2. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Ambassador July 11, 
with DATT and another U.S. military officer present, that Ethiopia 
did not see any use in a UN follow-on mission only in Ethiopia after 
UNMEE's mandate expired on July 31.  Echoing what Foreign Minister 
Seyoum told the Ambassador last week (reftel), the Prime Minister 
explained that Ethiopia now saw no benefit to such a UN mission. 
Meles said he saw some members of the UNSC using a follow-on mission 
as a means to hold Ethiopia, but not Eritrea, to a resolution of the 
border.   A follow-on mission would have no consequences for Eritrea 
as Eritrea can unilaterally criticize Ethiopia without pressure from 
the UNSC. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Further, Meles said Ethiopia was perplexed by the lack of 
UNSC action against Eritrea given its clear violation of the 
Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, ouster of U.S. and European 
peacekeepers last year and now ouster of UNMEE.  Eritrean actions 
have made the Algiers Accord unworkable and unenforceable.  Ethiopia 
has come to the conclusion that a follow-on mission only in Ethiopia 
would yield no benefit to Ethiopia.  The continued discussion of the 
border has encouraged Eritrea to act recklessly through incursion of 
Djiboutian territory, infringement of Ethiopian territory, raising 
border tensions through militarizing the neutral Temporary Security 
Zone (TSZ) and confronting Ethiopian troops.  The best avenue for 
Ethiopia is to let the UN dissolve UNMEE.  With no UNMEE or UNSC 
discussion of the border, Meles said he hoped the UN would then 
focus on the more important problems in the Sudan and Somalia. 
Minimizing "attention" on the border would deny President Isaias a 
"stage" to take provocative actions and Meles believed this 
situation would then help lessen tensions along the border. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Meles said Ethiopia would continue to welcome any envoy or 
team from the UN and remains open, at a later date, to discussions 
with the UN on the border issue and, more important, direct 
discussions with Eritrea to resolve their bilateral problems.  Meles 
added that Isaias is avoiding discussion of the border and trying to 
normalize relations as articulated and supported by the witnesses in 
February 2006.  Letting UNMEE's mandate expire and a period of 
"quiet" in which the border issue was not discussed may help calm 
the situation and force Isaias to deal with Ethiopia in a 
constructive manner rather than a hostile confrontation. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment:  Post still believes it would be useful for the 
UNSC to dispatch a team to the parties, even though Eritrea would 
likely reject seeing a UN team, to discuss the post UNMEE period and 
the conditions under which the UN can reengage the parties.   The 
Ambassador pressed Prime Minister Meles to accept a UN follow-on 
mission because it would help articulate for the UNSC concerns held 
by Ethiopia while Eritrea would be viewed as non-compliant on the 
border.  Discussions on a post-UNMEE scenario (with Ethiopia) will 
have to wait until after the expiration of the UNMEE mandate on July 
¶31.  End Comment. 
YAMAMOTO