VZCZCXRO4744
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHDA #0026/01 2060550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240550Z JUL 08
FM AMCONSUL ADANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4660
INFO RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1202
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0131
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU 0013
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 1021
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHYE/AMEMBASSY YEREVAN 0008
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 1264

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000026 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON SOCI TU PGOV
SUBJECT: TURKEY: WIDESPREAD DROUGHT IN SOUTHEAST COMPOUNDING ECONOMIC 
HARDSHIPS 
 
Summary 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶1.  (U) The Tigris and Euphrates basins in Turkey's heavily 
Kurdish southeastern region are suffering from the worst drought 
in a generation, pushing many poor farmers to abandon their 
villages in desperation due to shortages of water and animal 
feed.  The agriculture minister recently announced a program to 
assist affected farmers, but many fear that red tape and delays 
will prolong the agony and compound already severe economic 
problems in the region.  The politically astute AKP government 
will likely respond more generously as the planned 2009 local 
elections approach, but in the meantime the crisis is adding to 
the population of poor, disaffected migrant Kurds in the cities 
of southeastern Turkey.  End summary. 
 
 
 
No Rain, No Gain 
 
----------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) The rolling hills and rocky plains of the 
Tigris-Euphrates watershed produce olives, wheat, lentils, 
cotton and livestock.  Though large cities such as Diyarbakir 
have some industry, agriculture and food processing remain the 
backbone of the regional economy.  Due to the region's 
isolation, low education levels and chronic political 
instability, the conditions in many villages remain primitive, 
with peasants tilling small plots of land (owned or leased) just 
above the subsistence level. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) The hardest hit region in this year's drought is between 
the Tigris and Euphrates (including the provinces of Gaziantep, 
Kilis, Sanliurfa, Mardin, Sirnak, Batman, Diyarbakir, Adiyaman 
and Elazig), where precipitation is down by over 75%.  Even some 
crops under irrigation have been unable to grow because the soil 
is too dry or the weather was so hot early in the season that 
vegetation was scorched. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Huseyin Arslan, the chairman of Turkey's largest legume 
trading company, painted a dire picture of conditions in the 
region.  The red lentil crop, he told us, has declined from over 
half a million tons in 2007 to just 60,000 tons this year, 
causing the price to double.  The price is likely to climb even 
higher because lentils are a staple during Ramazan, which starts 
in early September.  Arslan said imports from North America will 
not be harvested in time for the holiday.  He added that the 
trauma of this year's drought will continue for several years 
because farmers will not have sufficient amounts of seed to 
plant next year. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Wheat and barley production in the region has also 
declined by as much as 90%, leading to a spike in the price of 
barley, which is a staple feed source for livestock.  While 
well-off farmers are able to survive from savings or loans, 
press reports suggest that thousands of poor farmers - 
especially those practicing animal husbandry - are being forced 
to abandon their homes and move to the cities to live with 
relatives and seek employment there.  Nurcan Baysal, the 
director of a rural development NGO that works with four 
villages in Diyarbakir province, said many poor families are 
heart-broken because they can't afford to feed their animals and 
end up selling them off to move to the city.  But, she added, 
the money they have will run out in a few months and create more 
unemployment and social problems in the urban centers.  Arslan 
echoed this, noting that when families are forced to sell their 
milking cow because they can't feed her, times are truly 
desperate. 
 
 
 
 
ADANA 00000026  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (U) Media reports confirm that the hardest-hit regions are 
seeing a mass exodus from dry villages, though overall figures 
have not been published.  All but four families have left a 
50-family village in Mardin because of the poor harvest and 
spiraling debts.  In several villages in Batman province, people 
are depending on trucked-in water because the wells are dry and 
the water table is lower so drilling to reach it has become more 
expensive, costing 100,000 to 200,000 YTL. 
 
 
 
Government Response 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) On July 19, the Agriculture ministry announced a relief 
program for wheat, barley and pulse growers who have lost more 
than 30% of their crop.  The compensation is between 13 and 30 
YTL per decare and is intended to provide farmers with 
sufficient cash to purchase seeds for next season.  There are 
also provisions for debt postponement from the state-owned 
Ziraat ("agriculture") Bank and agricultural cooperatives.  The 
head of an agricultural cooperative in Sanliurfa, however, was 
quoted saying that the debt-relief provisions are inadequate 
because about 80% of farmers' debt is with private banks, so 
will not be deferred. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Arslan complained that he had talked with Agriculture 
Minister Eker and prepared a report for him in May, but the 
government only announced an assistance program in mid-July. 
Baysal agreed that the assistance is coming too late because 
hundreds of people have already been forced to sell their 
livestock and move to the city.  She noted that her organization 
is active in lobbying the local government authorities to 
provide help and assists farmers in accessing aid.  But she 
noted that others don't have such assistance, "The villagers 
need help, but in many of these areas the government is not 
active and we are the only NGO doing rural development so there 
is no other help." 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) In May, PM Erdogan announced his plan to complete by 2012 
the Southeast Anatolian Project (GAP) - which calls for 
quadrupling the amount of land under irrigation and improving 
other infrastructure - but that program will not provide any 
short-term relief from the drought. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) The AKP government has been successful in courting 
farmers in southeastern Turkey with its infrastructure 
investments and anti-poverty programs, though its popularity 
throughout the region has suffered in recent months due to its 
perceived lack of sympathy on the Kurdish issue.  The 
government's late response to the drought probably resulted from 
political distractions in Ankara and concerns about maintaining 
budget discipline.  As the local elections are scheduled for 
March (but could be held sooner), many contacts expect that the 
relief packages for farmers will be increased. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) The human cost of the drought, in the form of 
thousands more people involuntarily moved from villages to the 
cities, is a vivid reminder that the rural areas in southeastern 
Turkey remain over-populated and under-developed.  While the 
recently announced initiative to re-energize the GAP will 
improve agricultural productivity in the long term, the major 
challenge is to generate employment opportunities for the 
legions of job-seekers who will continue to move to the cities. 
GREEN