VZCZCXRO1269
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0515/01 1751521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231521Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7716
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000515 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A/S KRAMER AND DRL, AND DAS BRYZA AND 
EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: UNSANTIONED LTP RALLY PROCEEDS PEACEFULLY, DRAWS 
20,000 
 
REF: YEREVAN 511 
 
YEREVAN 00000515  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) In defiance of the authorities who rejected his 
applications to hold a large opposition rally, former 
President Levon Ter-Petrosian (LTP) nonetheless drew 
approximately 20,000 supporters on June 20 in his first rally 
appearance since the fatal March 1-2 clampdown.  The rally, 
which proceeded peacefully after riot and regular police 
yielded the site to protesters, took place after municipal 
authorities had rejected 44 prior applications by pro-LTP 
activists to hold similar events.  During the four-hour-long 
event, which was interrupted by electricity outages, LTP and 
his lieutenants called for the arrest of former President 
Kocharian and his trial at The Hague, declared Kocharian 
should pay an indemnity of USD one million to the families of 
all ten victims, and demanded the release of all political 
prisoners before LTP would enter into dialogue with the 
current authorities.  LTP reiterated his demand of snap 
parliamentary and presidential elections to resolve the 
crisis, and announced July 4 as the next rally date. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------- 
BANNED, THEN ALLOWED 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Since the March 21 lifting of the State of Emergency 
(SOE), various LTP-aligned opposition groups -- in compliance 
with the new rally law passed in a single day late in the SOE 
had submitted 44 applications to hold a rally, all of which 
were denied.  In early June, organizers pledged to hold a 
rally at Opera Square (aka Freedom Square) on June 20, 
regardless of whether or not they would receive permission. 
Authorities again denied permission for the rally venue, 
ostensibly due to a scheduling conflict with a planned 
children's festival being held there. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Organizers then proposed the Matenadaran, an ancient 
manuscripts depositary located in downtown Yerevan, where LTP 
used to work, and where he rose to fame as a key speaker 
during anti-Soviet, pro-Karabakh protests in the late 1980s. 
Authorities refused this venue as well, saying that the 
police and Armenia's National Security Service (former KGB) 
had provided Yerevan's municipality "reliable information" 
about the potential for disorders connected to the event. 
Instead, city authorities verbally suggested the opposition 
should gather near the capital's largest football stadium, 
just beyond the city center.  The opposition, however, 
rejected that offer as unreasonable and, despite the 
warnings, announced that the rally would take place at the 
Matenadaran on June 20.  The day before the rally, Armenia's 
newly appointed deputy police chief publicly warned residents 
that police would act forcefully to prevent an unlawful 
gathering. 
 
¶4. (SBU) During the day, a heavy police presence could be 
seen being mounted downtown.  Police with riot shields, 
batons, and riot clothing stood shoulder-to-shoulder in 
surrounding Freedom Square, which had been completely 
overtaken by various police vehicles, fire-fighting 
equipment, and a water cannon.  (COMMENT: There was no sign 
of the children's event that supposedly precluded the staging 
of the rally. END COMMENT.)  Throughout the day on June 20, 
opposition activists claimed that mini-buses and buses 
traveling to Yerevan from the regions and Yerevan's suburbs 
were not operating, under instructions by the authorities, 
thus preventing people outside Yerevan from attending the 
rally.  Embassy staff observed police presence on many roads 
leading into Yerevan, with at least one checkpoint stopping 
and searching vehicles. 
 
--------------------- 
RIOT POLICE MELT AWAY 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) As the 6:00 pm start time for the rally approached, 
significant numbers of people began making their way to the 
Matenadaran.  Shortly before 6:00 pm, police were visibly and 
gradually withdrawn from the area, allowing participants to 
stream into the venue.  (NOTE: Police even used bullhorns to 
tell arriving protesters to proceed to the rally site so as 
 
YEREVAN 00000515  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
not to hinder car traffic below the Matenadaran.  Emboffs 
estimate that as many 200 riot police were withdrawn over 
thirty minutes, leaving the site entirely devoid of a police 
presence.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) The withdrawal of riot police was apparently the 
result of last-minute negotiations between opposition 
representatives and Yerevan's Deputy Chief of Police 
Aleksandr Afian.  Speaking to RFE/RL, Afian justified his 
decision by saying that demonstrators had blocked street 
traffic, "violating the rights of other individuals," after 
which he said a decision was made to allow people to proceed 
up towards the Matenadaran.  The negotiations lasted for 
about two hours, while the opposition was trying to bring 
speakers and microphones up to the podium. According to LTP 
aide Levon Zurabian, who conducted the negotiations with the 
police on behalf of the opposition, the authorities agreed to 
allow the equipment up, only if the opposition promised in 
return to finish the rally at 10pm and not conduct a march. 
The promise was kept. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
MEDIA COMMENTARY ON RALLY NEGOTIATIONS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Opposition newspapers that reported on the rally the 
following day highlighted its peaceful nature and expressed 
skepticism about the information that had prompted law 
enforcement bodies to recommend that the rally not be 
authorized.  The articles argued that those who claimed to 
have such information, which turned out to be false, should 
be held accountable.  Opposition leaders claimed that the 
permit denial was meant to reduce the number of participants. 
 While it didn't prevent a significant turnout, it might have 
reduced the numbers somewhat; while Aram Sargsian, the leader 
of the opposition Republic party, estimated the number of 
rally participants at some 50,000, and LTP implausibly 
claimed a crowd of 200,000.  Yerevan police estimated 10,000. 
Embassy estimates put the crowd at about 20,000. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
LTP ON PACE, ELECTION OUTCOME, DETAINEES 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) LTP used his speech to highlight the upcoming 
discussion of Armenia's political crisis by the Parliamentary 
Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), arguing that the 
authorities had failed to fulfill the requirements placed on 
GOAM officials by PACE resolution 1609 (reftel).  The rally 
took place three days before the start of the expected PACE 
session to discuss Armenia.  On June 19, PACE had issued a 
press release declaring an urgent debate was necessary to 
discuss Armenia.  The finding was a result of a mission 
earlier in the week by PACE co-rapporteurs who had met with 
the authorities, the opposition and others to assess the 
post-election environment. 
 
¶9. (SBU) According to LTP, the purpose of the rally was to 
show the international community and the authorities that 
despite assessments given to the February 19 Armenian 
presidential election, the Armenian public does not recognize 
Serzh Sargsian as Armenia's president.  Secondly, the 
opposition wants to show to European bureaucrats (in the 
Council of Europe, the European Union and the OSCE) that 
Armenians "are not third-class people, as they are accustomed 
to believe."  LTP charged that Armenia's respectable image 
had been damaged in the eyes of the international community, 
due to the actions of the current authorities. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Referring to the section of resolution 1609 that 
mentions the need to release political detainees, LTP 
sarcastically noted that Armenian authorities have been 
voicing the following formula:  "We have no political 
detainees in Armenia, since we have no law on political 
detainees ..."  LTP mentioned that it's the same as saying 
"since we have no law on birds, there are no birds in 
Armenia."  According to him, the same absurd formula was 
offered by Robert Kocharian in regard to LTP's house arrest. 
"How can there be a house arrest in Armenia if we have no law 
on house arrest?" - Kocharian had reportedly stated. 
 
¶11. (SBU) LTP offered the following statistics on the 
prosecution of oppositionists since the elections:  5,000 
individuals have been summoned by or taken to the police; 500 
have been detained; 130 arrested; and 86 are still in jail. 
None of them have been charged for carrying or using weapons 
on March 1, robbing shops or burning cars.  This, according 
 
YEREVAN 00000515  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
to LTP, proved that the robbery and arsons were orchestrated 
by the authorities, not by the opposition activists who 
supported his presidential bid. 
 
-------------------------- 
VICTIMS OF MARCH 1 CLASHES 
-------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) LTP suggested that the authorities give the 
posthumous title of "National Hero" to all who died on March 
¶1.  He also called on the authorities to pay at least USD one 
million to the families of each victim, to be paid not by the 
state budget but by Kocharian himself.  He also reminded 
supporters of the allegations in the media that the 
opposition rally was dispersed on March 1 by forces that 
included riot police dispatched to Yerevan from 
Nagorno-Karabakh.  "If these allegations prove correct, then 
the Nagorno-Karabakh President should be announced persona 
non grata in Armenia, and we will eventually make sure that 
former Armenian President Robert Kocharian appears at the 
Hague Tribunal," LTP declared.  The normally self-effacing 
LTP confidant David Shahnazarian, a former Interior Minister 
under LTP, also spoke at the rally, urging the arrest of 
Kocharian, former Ministry of Defense Mikhail Harutiunian 
(who dispatched army troops into Yerevan after the SOE was 
declared), and former head of the State Protection Service 
(SPS) Grisha Sargsian, who is rumored to have been behind the 
violent dispersal of Freedom Square on March 1. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Referring in his speech to the recently formed 
ad-hoc parliamentary committee that is to look into the March 
1-2 clashes, LTP challenged its partiality and said that it 
would have no credibility with society.  In response to the 
recent parliamentary invitation he had received inviting him 
to name a non-voting representative to the committee, LTP 
sarcastically and tastelessly -- declared he would send a 
citizen by the name of "Gevorik" who is apparently mentally 
handicapped and often appears at the headquarters of LTP's 
old Armenian National Movement political party headquarters 
to beg for money in exchange for opening doors. 
 
----------------- 
POSSIBLE DIALOGUE 
----------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) LTP declared that if the authorities released all 
political detainees immediately, he would personally urge 
PACE to refrain from taking sanctions against Armenia.  He 
also reaffirmed the determination of the opposition to engage 
in a dialogue with the GOAM once they release all political 
detainees.  The dialogue, however, can be only about new 
presidential and parliamentary elections, which are, 
according to LTP, the only way out of the political crisis. 
"If the authorities wished to ease the tension in the 
society, they would have done it by now.  Instead, they 
simply reshuffled government officials to various positions," 
LTP claimed. 
 
¶15. (SBU) LTP also indicated that if the authorities 
conducted real reforms, arrested the real criminals of March 
1, eliminated the shadow economy and government-protected 
monopolies, and appointed professional and trustworthy people 
to high-ranking positions, the opposition would welcome all 
those steps.  LTP was intentionally vague on future plans, 
simply asking his supporters to trust the movement he is 
currently leading, and him personally.  He asked participants 
to go home in peace and be sure that he'll never abandon the 
current struggle.  He also announced the next rally date for 
the evening of Friday, July 4.  The rally ended in the dark, 
at 10:00 pm local time. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Both the authorities and the opposition are to be 
given credit for the rally taking place as peacefully as it 
did, in spite of the tense cat-and-mouse game they played 
leading up to it.  That said, the extreme show of force in 
Freedom Square, and LTP's ratcheting up of rhetoric suggest 
that both camps hav uncompromising red lines that do not bode 
well for dialogue or compromise.  For all of his theatrics, 
in the end LTP had very little new to say to his supporters. 
Without a clear strategy for making his movement more 
relevant to events on the ground, it is unclear how long the 
opposition will keep the attention of ordinary Armenians 
disenchanted with the authorities.  The hard core will remain 
 
YEREVAN 00000515  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
loyal to LTP, but simple repetition of the same well-worn 
lines may not be enough to keep the less committed from 
drifting away. END COMMENT. 
 
 
PENNINGTON