VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUCNDT #0553/01 1761749
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY ADAA1083 TOQ8341-695)
O 241749Z JUN 08
FM USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4479
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 0221

UNCLAS USUN NEW YORK 000553 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC AF
SUBJECT: UN VIEWS ON SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU)  UN DPKO U/SYG Guehenno shared a downbeat report on 
his recent trip to Afghanistan and the UN perspective on the 
outcome of the recent Paris Conference in a June 19 meeting 
with PermReps from key coalition countries.  In comparison to 
his last visit in 2005, Guehenno described a sense of 
"despondency and uncertainty" in Afghanistan.  Although 
Coalition Forces and Afghan security forces are winning 
tactical battles, he argued that these accomplishments are 
not adding up to strategic victory.  He said the Afghan 
people are exhausted from years of conflict, and "collateral 
damage" and intrusive searches by Coalition Forces means 
their perception of foreign troops is deteriorating, a point 
of view he described as widespread, from President Karzai to 
the average citizen.  Guehenno said the Taliban is considered 
cruel but disciplined whereas the government is perceived to 
lack discipline and integrity.  He stated that efforts to 
build an army and a police force are progressing well, but 
overall trust in state institutions has decreased.  On a more 
positive note, Guehenno reported tremendous support from 
donors and major ISAF players for SRSG Eide, but reiterated 
the familiar criticism that there is no shared "map" of which 
donor is doing what where in Afghanistan, and emphasized the 
need to strengthen the JCMB.  He confirmed that elections are 
a priority for UNAMA. 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a separate meeting June 20, USUN Deputy Political 
Counselor Molly Phee spoke with the UN Director of the 
Electoral Assistance Division (EAD) Craig Jenness about EAD's 
assessment of the upcoming elections in Afghanistan.  Noting 
the UN's appointment of elections adviser Margie Cook to the 
UNAMA team and recent TDY elections support to the mission, 
Jenness requested consultations with State, USAID and other 
agencies as appropriate on the margins of an NDU conference 
on the Afghan elections scheduled for late July.  While 
acknowledging the outstanding legal and logistical issues 
that need to be tackled, Jenness praised the technical 
expertise of the Afghans and recommended that the 
international community manage its expectations.  He noted 
that it is routine for voter turnout to be lower in the 
second election held after the introduction of democracy. 
What may be more important, he suggested, is equable levels 
of participation by all ethnic groups. 
 
Guehenno Analyzes International Effort in Afghanistan 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Following the Paris Conference on Afghanistan, the 
Canadian PermRep invited DPKO U/SYG Guehenno for breakfast to 
meet with PermReps, including Amb Khalilzad, from key 
coalition countries June 19 to discuss his recent visit to 
Afghanistan.  Guehenno opened by comparing his latest trip 
unfavorably to his last visit in 2005.  He said he found a 
sense of "despondency and uncertainty."  He offered his 
assessment that tactical military victories have not resulted 
in a strategic victory.  While ISAF and OEF forces clearly 
take precautions to avoid undue harm to the population, the 
"finer points" regarding the intent of combat operations are 
not adequately explained to the population or overshadowed by 
forceful entries, night patrols and other intrusive 
activities.  The result is a deteriorating perception of 
foreign troops in Afghanistan.  Guehenno said:  "I did not 
meet with a single person in Afghanistan who did not raise 
this with me as an issue of concern."  He suggested that a 
solution to this growing problem is to encourage greater 
participation of Afghan security forces.  In discussing these 
issues, Guehenno also said that there was a need to deal with 
the consequences of the tension between OEF and ISAF, 
explaining that NATO finds itself having to cope with the 
effects of OEF operations in its areas. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Turning to the government, Guehenno said efforts to 
build up the Afghan army and police are going well but 
overall trust in state institutions is insufficient. 
Guehenno suggested that the presence of the state in the 
day-to-day lives of the people remains inadequate. 
Government performance is uneven, varying from ministry to 
ministry and province to province.  Karzai advisor Popal has 
good ideas about governance, said Guehenno, but since he is 
pursuing them through the Presidency rather than implementing 
them through the ministries it is not clear that they will 
develop operational legs.  Widespread corruption has created 
a perception that the government does not have discipline or 
integrity, in contrast to the Taliban, who are perceived to 
be cruel but disciplined.  Guehenno also said that in making 
appointments, Karzai is perceived to focus too much on an 
individual's tribal or ethnic affiliation rather than 
competence. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Guehenno praised the international commitment to 
Afghanistan's reconstruction.  However, he stated that a 
coherent vision across sectors, regions and PRTs is lacking. 
There is no comprehensive "map" that provides a common 
picture of the reconstruction effort -- which donor is doing 
what where.  He also raised the disparity in the distribution 
of resources, reporting for example that one province has $40 
million in available project funding while another has only 
$4 million, and lamented the political signal sent when 
provinces with a higher incidence of insurgent actions and 
illegal narcotic activity receive more aid.  Guehenno argued 
that the JCMB must become the centralized coordination 
mechanism if it is to be effective. 
 
Guehenno on Afghan Elections 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Guehenno underscored that the upcoming elections are 
a top priority for UNAMA, and explained that a number of 
preparatory actions need to be taken now.  The current 
outstanding issue is conducting voter registration prior to 
the onset of winter.  He suggested that an appreciably lower 
voter turnout could damage the authority of the central 
government and the President.  In response to a question, 
Guehenno said that postponing the elections is not a real 
option, as doing so would severely erode the legitimacy of 
the Presidency.  At the same time, the risks of an 
ill-prepared election in which large portions of the 
population do not participate are clear.  Guehenno called for 
a redoubling of efforts to facilitate successful elections. 
 
EAD on Afghan Elections 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Deputy political counselor Phee met separately June 
20 with EAD Director Jenness.  Jenness outlined several legal 
and logistical challenges, but identified possible solutions 
and positively recalled the technical expertise of the 
Afghans.  He acknowledged that the recent decision to de-link 
registration for a national identity card (civil registry) 
from voter registration could cause delays in voter 
registration, including the need to procure a new form, 
Ramadan in September, and the onset of Afghan winter. 
Jenness said a two-phase voter registration in which the 
northern provinces register in the summer and the southern 
provinces register in the winter might be necessary. 
Referring to the ambiguous legal status of the Afghan 
electoral commission, Jenness noted that any amendment of 
Afghanistan's electoral law must be adopted one year prior to 
the election.  He also raised a concern that the current 
Election Commissioner, who was appointed by Karzai, will be 
perceived as favoring the President.  Jenness expressed 
confidence, however, that SRSG Eide and the international 
community could work in partnership with the Afghan 
government to tackle these matters. 
 
¶8. (SBU) When apprised that Guehenno had expressed concerns 
to PermReps about the impact of lower voter turnout on the 
credibility of the results, Jenness explained that it is 
common in new democracies for there to be a dip in voter 
turnout in the second election.  However, he shared 
Guehenno's concern that there be equable participation levels 
from Afghan's different ethnic groups, and suggested that the 
international community should work to prevent such a 
scenario. To that end, he recommended that EAD consult with 
State, USAID and other interested agencies.  He said that 
UNAMA's recently appointed elections advisor will visit 
Washington in late July to attend an NDU conference on the 
elections, and suggested a meeting be arranged at that time. 
Jenness confirmed that the UN would mobilize necessary 
support for the elections, reporting that he had recently 
sent a member of his staff TDY to Afghanistan to assess and 
assist. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment:  Guehenno's pessimism about the situation 
in Afghanistan is consistent with his generally negative 
perspective about the situation there.  End Comment. 
 
Khalilzad