VZCZCXRO1091
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0394/01 1690831
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170831Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7441
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0345
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR TF FALCON
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000394 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ELECTION RE-RUNS PASS MUSTER; 
SHORTCOMINGS REMAIN 
 
REF: SKOPJE 390 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The conduct of voting in parliamentary election 
re-runs on June 15 improved substantially compared to the 
June 1 elections, which had been marred by violence, 
intimidation and widespread electoral fraud.  Significantly 
and visibly increased police presence created a safer, more 
secure voting environment; police acted decisively in several 
instances to detain trouble-makers.  Despite the improvement, 
election observers noted serious irregularities -- including 
ballot stuffing and proxy voting -- at a number of polling 
stations.  In a number of stations, the local election board 
(with mostly DPA members) was complicit in the fraud.  The 
results of the voting, according to State Electoral 
Commission figures, give eAlbanian DUI a strong lead (18 
seats) over governing coalition rival DPA (11 seats).  ODIHR 
assessed the re-run voting positively, but said that would 
not change its overall assessment that the parliamentary 
elections had fallen short of key OSCE and Council of Europe 
commitments.  DPA intends to appeal the re-voting in DUI 
strongholds, where it claims (unrealistically) that DUI 
activists "stole" roughly 35,000 votes.  We assess that DPA's 
more prevalent involvement in electoral fraud was off-set by 
the freedom for DUI's voters to vote, and that the June 15 
results announced by the SEC are valid and should be the 
basis for acting to seat parliament and form a new 
government. End summary. 
 
VOTING IRREGULARITIES 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Mostly ethnic Albanian citizens voted in parliamentary 
election re-runs in nearly 187 polling stations in three of 
Macedonia's six electoral districts on June 15. 
International and domestic election monitors observed regular 
voting procedures in most polling stations, but also noted 
serious irregularities -- including ballot stuffing, proxy 
voting, and failure to follow proper procedures in the 
conduct and counting of the vote -- in a number of other 
stations.  The State Electoral Commission (SEC) closed four 
polling stations after observers noted serious procedural 
irregularities and unidentified persons stole ballot 
materials. 
 
¶3. (U) Large numbers of eAlbanian women voted, most of them 
brought to polling stations by male relatives or -- in a 
negative departure from past elections -- by party activists 
who instructed them which candidate to vote for.   Overall 
turnout in the three districts was 48.9 percent of registered 
voters, well below the June 1 national turnout of about 57 
percent.  The SEC has ordered re-runs in four polling 
stations that were closed on June 15 due to various 
irregularities. The re-voting will involve approximately 
3,000 registered voters, possibly enough to affect only one 
MP seat. 
 
TIGHTER SECURITY, POLICE PROACTIVE 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Security for the voting improved significantly 
compared to June 1, when police around polling stations were 
only lightly deployed and election monitors noted numerous 
instances of police complicity in electoral fraud. The 
Ministry of Interior's (MOI's) revised security plan called 
for a more robust uniformed police and police special forces 
presence, which was apparent at nearly all polling stations. 
This was a very positive deterrent to party thugs, and 
contributed to preventing violence and overt intimidation. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Police pre-emptively detained known party agitators 
at one polling station, arrested two individuals for stealing 
a ballot box, and detained one male for brandishing his 
pistol in a polling station.  At several polling sites, Local 
Election Board (LEB) members asked police to withdraw 
entirely from the station, but the police refused to do so. 
No major security incidents were reported, and previous 
security "hot spots" -- in Cair and Arachinovo -- remained 
quiet throughout the day, indicating that party leaders did 
 
SKOPJE 00000394  002 OF 002 
 
 
instruct their supporters and enforcers not to cause trouble 
(reftel). 
 
RESULTS GIVE DUI STRONG LEAD OVER DPA 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) The SEC published initial results of the voting 
showing eAlbanian opposition DUI with a strong lead over DPA, 
the eAlbanian coalition partner of governing VMRO.  According 
to SEC figures, VMRO now has 63 seats in the 120-seat 
parliament (retaining its absolute majority), while 
opposition SDSM trails with just 27 MPs.  DUI has 18 seats, 
DPA 11, and a multi-ethnic "micro-party" has one MP. 
According to the SEC, the new parliament should be 
constituted on June 20. 
 
DUI CROWS, DPA CRIES FOUL 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) DUI VP Teuta Arifi told us June 15 that the party 
was pleased with the results of the voting, and that the June 
15 process has been "fair and correct."  She said DUI also 
was pleased with the heavier police presence, but planned 
nevertheless to complain about government inaction that had 
made the re-run voting necessary to begin with, a position 
echoing comments made by ODIHR and other observers.  DPA 
initially claimed victory in the voting, insisting that it 
had won 13 seats and that it had stemmed the DUI tide.  By 
late in the evening on June  15, however, DPA's spokesman 
said the party was convinced DUI had "stolen" more than 
35,000 of the votes it had received in traditional DUI 
strongholds, and that it would appeal poll results in many of 
those areas.  (Comment: We believe DPA may hope to maintain 
inter-party tensions and drag out the government formation 
process through repeated appeals and revoting, an approach we 
will oppose. End Comment.) 
 
PEACEFUL RE-RUNS DON'T CHANGE ODIHR'S OVERALL ASSESSMENT 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶8. (U) ODIHR assessed the re-runs positively, noting that the 
significant security improvements had "enabled most people to 
freely cast their vote."  ODIHR added, however, that that did 
not "alter the assessment that while well-administered, 
certain key OSCE and Council of Europe commitments were not 
met in the overall parliamentary election process."  It also 
noted that "cases of tensions and intimidation remained 
evident in the run-up to and on June 15." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) If DPA succeeds in its appeals (due 48 hours after 
the June 15 voting), yet another round of re-voting is 
unlikely to change the overall outcome significantly.  We 
will work on getting the government and political parties to 
focus instead on forming a new parliament quickly, and on the 
coalition-building negotiations likely to take place over the 
next several weeks.  PM Gruevski could find it difficult to 
again woo DPA, since the re-run results clearly indicate that 
party was at fault for the bulk of the June 1 irregularities. 
 He also will also find it difficult to cut a deal with DUI, 
however, given the likelihood that DUI's strong, 18-seat win 
will drive it to make maximalist demands of Gruevski. 
Gruevski's own 63-seat absolute majority, in turn, will 
further compound coalition talks, since he will insist on 
negotiating from a position of strength in which substantial 
concessions to a junior coalition partner -- especially to 
DUI -- will be difficult to justify to his grassroots 
supporters.  We will begin working immediately with our EU 
colleagues to induce flexibility in the DUI position, using 
the goodwill earned over the past weeks as we have pushed the 
GOM and the SEC to ensure a freer, fairer voting process that 
has -- in the end -- more accurately reflected the will of 
the eAlbanian voters. 
Milovanovic