VZCZCXRO3129
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0368/01 1581237
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061237Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7408
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0336
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2293
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000368 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: PLANNING FOR ELECTION RE-RUNS, MORE 
VIOLENCE EXPECTED? 
 
REF: A. SKOPJE 361 
 
     ¶B. SKOPJE 364 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Working nearly non-stop for 48 hours, the State 
Electoral Committee (SEC) by June 6 had ordered election 
re-runs in 98 polling stations (PSs), due to violence and 
intimidation or other irregularities that marred the June 1 
elections (reftels).  In the meantime, the police have 
charged 88 individuals for pre-election or Election Day 
violence.  ODIHR's team on the ground is concerned that the 
re-runs could again be violent, unless extensive changes are 
made in police deployment plans.  End summary. 
 
SEC WILL LIKELY ORDER RE-RUNS IN 200 POLLING STATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As of mid-day June 6, the SEC had not finalized a 
list of PSs in which to conduct re-runs of the Parliamentary 
elections on June 15 (ref A).  By 2 a.m. on June 6, the SEC 
had completed its review of complaints filed by two of the 
four political parties and coalitions (DPA and VMRO) and had 
decided to invalidate the results in 98 PSs in Electoral 
Districts 1, 2 and 6.  The SEC must now decide whether to 
hold re-runs in all of those PSs; ODIHR believes that will be 
the case. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Since the SEC is already past the deadline indicated 
in the Electoral Code (48 hours after the submission of 
complaints) it is unlikely it will review anything more than 
the remaining political party complaints (DUI and coalition 
Sonce led by SDSM).  ODIHR's HOM told us June 6 the SEC had 
followed "a satisfactorily robust process," which would 
likely result in re-runs in a total of 200 PSs.  Once the 
SEC's list of PSs for re-runs has been released, parties have 
24 hours to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, which 
in turn has 48 hours to decide on the appeals.  Additional 
delays would not/not result in pushing forward the re-run 
date beyond June 15. 
 
POLICE CHARGE 88 FOR ELECTION DAY UNREST 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ministry of Interior (MOI) Spokesperson Kotevski 
told us June 6 that the police have so far processed and 
documented 31 cases of Election Day or pre-Election Day 
violence and intimidation.  A total of 88 individuals in 31 
cases have been charged with 53 criminal charges, and 9 with 
misdemeanors.  Of the overall number, 20 suspects are in 
pre-trial detention, including DPA-affiliated crime boss Agim 
Krasniqi and his gang of nine and three individuals charged 
in a June 1 shootout in the Skopje neighborhood of Cair. 
Kotevski added that there are additional cases under 
investigation.  In a conversation with the DCM on June 5, 
both Thaci and Ahmeti complained about arrests of their 
activists. 
 
ODIHR CONCERNS 
-------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) On June 4, ODIHR's Ambassador Barry briefed IC 
representatives on ODIHR's post-election intial findings. 
Emphasizing that ODIHR's final assessment will not depend 
just on the conduct and outcome of re-voting, but also on 
whether the GOM effectively prosecutes and punishes those 
responsible for Election Day violence, Barry said he was "not 
confident" that the GOM would pull it off.  In a separate 
meeting June 6, Ambassador Barry made a pessimistic 
prediction that the re-runs "would be even more violent" than 
the June 1 elections.  He recounted reports by ODIHR's 
observers in eAlbanian areas, who said that DUI "has made a 
call to arms for this round."  In Barry's opinion, the 
situation could be ameliorated by the pre-election removal of 
Deputy MOI Elmazi and the DPA-affiliated police commander in 
Tetovo.  If they were not removed, Barry said, the security 
situation will be "serious." 
 
¶6. (SBU) As part of his post-election review, Barry added 
that clone party SDPM (with candidates with identical or 
similar names to SDSM's candidates) likely had cost SDSM 3 MP 
 
SKOPJE 00000368  002 OF 002 
 
 
seats. 
 
EARLY COALITION RUMORS 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) On June 4, EUSR contacts reported that Kosovo's 
Ramush Haradinaj had reached out to both DPA's Thaci and 
DUI's Ahmeti, urging them to participate in a joint coalition 
with VMRO's Gruevski.  The report, which was later confirmed 
by separate sources, alleged that Haradinaj wanted a DPA-DUI 
agreement to be reached before the expected June 15 re-runs 
in order to prevent further intra-Albanian violence. 
Exchanging harsh accusations on June 5 both DPA's Thaci and 
DUI's Ahmeti ruled out any joint participation in a future 
inter-ethnic coalition. 
 
OPPOSITION LEADER RESIGNATION 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The "irrevocable resignation" of the president of 
the biggest opposition party, SDSM, Radmila Sekerinska (ref 
B) led to passionate appeals among some higher-ranking SDSM 
officials for her to stay.  One of the people rumored as a 
possible replacement for Sekerinska, SDSM VP and Strumica 
mayor Zoran Zaev, was reported as saying that "the party 
needs Sekerinska, and the party is more important than her 
principles." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Following the flawed early Parliamentary elections 
on June 1, this week has seen a rush of frantic activity to 
organize the June 15 re-runs.  Clearly overwhelmed, the SEC 
nevertheless appears to be doing a reasonable job in 
considering all parties' complaints, and in aiming for a 
broad approach to approving re-voting. 
Milovanovic