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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000285 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, INR/IAA, INR/R/AA 
STATE PASS USTR FOR KATE DUCKWORTH 
NSC FOR TOMASULO 
TREASURY FOR JHOEK 
USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC 
USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO 
DOL FOR ILAB 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID FOR LAC/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
SUBJECT: SAO PAULO: MARTA SUPLICY'S MAYORAL CANDIDACY COULD LEAD TO 
2010 PRESIDENTIAL BID 
 
REF: (A) Sao Paulo 225; (B) Sao Paulo 142; (C) Sao Paulo 94 (D) Brasilia 674 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
¶1. (SBU) On June 4, Marta Suplicy confirmed her resignation as 
Minister of Tourism and her pre-candidacy as the Workers' Party (PT) 
candidate for Mayor of Sao Paulo.  She and the PT are counting on 
three elements - President Lula's popularity, the strong economy, 
and division in opposition ranks - to propel them to victory in Sao 
Paulo's Mayoral election this year.  Nationwide, the PT is counting 
on the municipal elections to strengthen its electoral base in 
preparation for electing a successor to Lula in 2010.  If Suplicy is 
elected Mayor this year, she would greatly enhance her chances of 
becoming the PT candidate for President in 2010.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) In addition to Suplicy, Minister of Social Security Luiz 
Marinho also resigned in order to run for Mayor of Sao Bernardo do 
Campo, an important industrial suburb of Sao Paulo that gave rise to 
President Lula's early career as a labor leader. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Suplicy, who served as Sao Paulo Mayor from 2001 through 
2004 but lost her re-election bid to Jose Serra of the rival Social 
Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB), is in some ways a reluctant 
candidate.  Most observers agree that she would have preferred to 
continue to serve in Lula's Cabinet and then run for Governor in 
¶2010.  However, she is far and away the strongest candidate the PT 
can muster in Sao Paulo's largest city, and the fractious party is 
largely united in its support for her candidacy.  President Lula has 
also given her his blessing and is expected to campaign for her. 
Suplicy knows that a victory in Sao Paulo could propel her 
immediately onto the short list of possible PT presidential 
candidates in 2010. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Required by law to resign her Ministry by June 5, four 
months before the election, in order to be a candidate, Suplicy 
waited until the last possible day.  She has been enjoying the 
spectacle of the opposition Social Democracy Party of Brazil's 
(PSDB) internal split between supporters of former Governor Alckmin 
and those who would prefer to maintain the alliance with the 
Democratic Party (DEM) by supporting the re-election of incumbent 
Mayor Gilberto Kassab (ref B).  But Suplicy is also facing problems 
of her own.  To date, no party has agreed to enter into an alliance 
with the PT.  By way of contrast, Kassab and the DEMs have already 
signed on two allies: the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB 
- see ref A) and the Party of the Republic (PR).  Though neither is 
very large or influential, both add to the amount of free television 
and radio advertising the Kassab ticket will be entitled to.  The 
failure to get the support of the PMDB - an ally on the national 
level in President Lula's governing coalition - was a serious blow 
to Marta and the PT.   Alckmin, for his part, has landed the 
Brazilian Labor Party (PTB) along with the tiny Social Christian 
Democratic Party (PSDC). 
 
¶5. (SBU) There are three center-left parties that would be natural 
allies of Suplicy and the PT - the Communists (PC do B), the 
Socialists (PSB), and the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) - but each 
has a prospective candidate of its own.  This "Bloquinho da 
Esquerda" (Little Left Bloc) has expressed the intention to unite 
behind a single candidate in Sao Paulo and several other cities with 
a view to breaking the PSDB-PT duopoly and paving the way for the 
likely 2010 presidential bid of federal deputy Ciro Gomes (PSB-CE). 
In early May, when former Sao Paulo Mayor Luiza Erundina (1989-92) 
told the press she had been offered the position of Marta Suplicy's 
running mate and was agreeable, she was quickly and publicly 
criticized by her own party's leadership and other members of the 
Bloquinho.  The most likely "Bloquinho" candidate for Mayor is Aldo 
Rebelo (PC doB), a former political coordinator in Lula's government 
who later served (2005-06) as President of the Chamber of Deputies. 
Though unlikely even to break into double digits, a "Bloquinho" 
candidate like Rebelo would take votes away from Suplicy.  The PT 
continues to negotiate with the center-left parties, but whether a 
deal can be struck remains unclear. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Suplicy, who is running neck-and-neck in the polls with 
former Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), is poular among the poor 
and is likely to do well in he marginalized neighborhoods on the 
city's peripery.  Her term as Mayor was notable for the 
consruction of Unified Educational Centers (CEUs), in hich schools 
doubled as neighborhood community cnters, and by a commitment to 
affordable public ransportation as exemplified by the "bilhete 
unico" allowing passengers to travel interchangeably onbuses and 
Metro for a single fare valid for fourhours.  At the same time, she 
was accused duringher first term of contracting irregularities and 
financial mismanagement, and polls show her with a high rejection 
rate, due in part to a personal style that many perceive as 
arrogant. 
 
¶7. (U) In an interview with leading-circulation daily Folha de Sao 
Paulo timed to coincide with her announcement, Suplicy said she 
wants to "reconquer the middle class that I lost in 2004."  She 
stated that transportation would be her priority and promised a "war 
effort" and a "management shock" to address the city's chaotic 
traffic and its public transportation deficiencies.  She criticized 
past and present (mostly PSDB) Governors for a subway system she 
described as 20 years behind the times.  She also characterized the 
Mayoral performance of Jose Serra (who departed in 2006 to run for 
Governor) and incumbent Gilberto Kassab as "timid and mediocre" and 
blamed them for rolling back her achievements in office. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: The most likely scenario is that Suplicy will make 
it into the second round of the election with either Kassab or 
Alckmin as her opponent.  What will happen then is impossible to 
say.  Her candidacy has the potential to invigorate the PT base.  PT 
state chairman Edinho Silva said the party will try to capitalize on 
Lula's popularity and the good will generated by economic stability 
and the government's commitment to social progress.  "But in a local 
campaign, even a friendly President and federal government support 
will only take you so far," he noted.  "What matters is whether 
voters believe the candidate will take care of the city and its 
people and deliver good services."  Opponents will remind voters of 
Suplicy's faux pas - advising travelers victimized by the country's 
aviation chaos to "relax and enjoy" - but the PT has an efficient 
electoral machine in the city that should serve her well.  If she 
can win back Sao Paulo, her party will have to consider whether she 
might make a stronger candidate than Dilma Rousseff (see ref D) - 
Lula's current favorite - in the 2010 presidential elections.  End 
Comment. 
 
¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with and cleared by Embassy 
Brasilia. 
 
WHITE