P 191940Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3410
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UNCLAS SANTIAGO 000581 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: CONCERTACION DECISION TO RUN TWO LISTS FOR UPCOMING 
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS CALLED "PANDORA'S BOX" 
 
REF: Santiago 480 
 
¶1.  Summary: Concertacion coalition parties announced on June 5 that 
they will run two lists of candidates in October's municipal 
elections, the first time since winning power in 1990 that the 
Concertacion is running a split ticket.  The two larger parties - 
Socialists and Christian Democrats - will run on one ticket and the 
two smaller parties -- the Party for Democracy and Social Radicals 
-- on another.  President Bachelet and other senior GOC officials 
tried to mediate with party leaders to ensure a unity ticket, but 
failed.  The center-right Alianza opposition is salivating at the 
chance to exploit a divided Concertacion and increase their gains in 
the elections.  Analysts differ in their analysis of the pros and 
cons of the formula, but generally agree that two lists of 
candidates could seriously weaken Concertacion coalition cohesion. 
End Summary. 
 
Two Weeks of debate on "Two Lists" 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  The day after President Bachelet's State of the Union address on 
May 21 (ref a) -- where she called for politicians to approve 
electoral reform and to "leave aside the calculator" -- the Party 
for Democracy (PPD) and the Radical Party (PRSD) informed their 
Concertacion counterparts, the Socialist Party (PS) and the 
Christian Democrats (DC), that they would run their own list of 
candidates for municipal council elections in October.  Two weeks of 
debate, commentary and criticisms in media outlets followed. 
Despite a public call and personal intervention in favor of 
Concertacion unity by Bachelet, the Concertacion parties were unable 
to reach an agreement.  On June 5, they agreed to disagree 
announcing that there will be two Concertacion lists for municipal 
council members (2,134 total seats: one made up of PPD/PRSD 
candidates and the other of PS/DC).  However, the parties agreed 
that the Concertacion will still run a single candidate in the 
mayoral races. 
 
¶3.  Negotiation of candidacies for the municipal elections has 
always been a challenge for the Concertacion.  Minority parties (PPD 
and PRSD) historically have been forced to limit their candidates in 
favor of the larger parties (DC and PS).  In the last round of 
municipal elections in 2004, the Christian Democrats put up 906 
candidates for municipal councils, while the other Concertacion 
parties each put up between 300 and 400.  Because a majority of 
council members are running for re-election this year, all the 
Concertacion parties would have little wiggle room to increase their 
number of candidates under a single Concertacion list. 
 
Breaking Free of Coalition Constraints 
----------------- -------------------- 
 
¶4.  Because running as a coalition limits the number of candidates 
each party can present -- and requires tough seat-by-seat 
negotiations among the four Concertacion parties -- breaking out 
into two lists offers some attractions for minority parties.  By 
running two lists, the PPD and PRSD can offer candidacies to over a 
thousand more supporters.  Two lists also give the PPD the chance to 
compete openly with the DC, to whom it gave up 16 municipalities in 
2004 so that it could run its candidate for Mayor of Santiago (who 
then lost to an opposition independent).  The PPD believes that 
running its own list with the Radicals is a Concertacion opportunity 
to elect more council members, arguing that a broader slate will 
capture more votes from centrist voters who might otherwise vote for 
the Alianza opposition. 
 
¶5.  PPD leader Pepe Auth defended the proposal in an opinion piece 
by arguing that running two lists is a way to "open the doors and 
the windows of the Concertacion" and that what is at stake is not 
the unity of the coalition, but its willingness to "re-encounter the 
social world that it represents."  He stated that running two lists 
for municipal elections is a way to get around Chile's "binomial 
politics mentality" which forces Chile's political diversity into 
two large "blocks" and leaves "few spaces for open competition and 
new leadership."  He called the municipal elections the "front door 
of democracy" and argued that it should be sufficiently wide enough 
to allow women, youth, social leaders, representatives of indigenous 
peoples, and independents to enter. 
 
The Pro-Unity Stance 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  For the DC and the PS, the idea of running two lists is 
anathema.  Not only does it open the door to greater intra-coalition 
competition, but it reportedly favors the opposition Alianza as 
Concertacion parties compete with each other.  It is also a sign 
that the DC -- historically the largest coalition party -- has lost 
its leadership position within the Concertacion. 
 
Bachelet Joins the Fray and Gets Burned 
------------------ -------------------- 
 
¶7.  Initially, President Bachelet limited her involvement to 
underlining Concertacion unity and the government's preference that 
the Concertacion run one list.  The president was criticized for an 
"evident weakness in government leadership" compared to her 
predecessors.  On June 2, Bachelet --reportedly ceding to continued 
pressure from the DC and PS leadership -- called all three former 
Concertacion presidents to a meeting at La Moneda presidential 
palace, where together they called for Concertacion unity.  However, 
by June 5, the parties were not able to reach an agreement on a 
single list and announced that the Concertacion would run two lists 
of municipal council candidates.  Analysts have commented in the 
press that the PPD/PRSD "win" of their own list had a "demolishing 
effect" on Bachelet's leadership. 
 
Reactions 
--------- 
 
¶8.  Some traditional Concertacion leaders have suggested that 
running two lists is a "Pandora's Box" that signals the "beginning 
of the end" of the Concertacion.  FM Foxley was less dire but said 
"it is not a good signal for the country."  Others are downplaying 
the decision, and argue that the two lists make it easier for all 
parties to run more candidates, include more of their supporters, 
and avoid tense negotiations over how to divvy up a limited number 
of coalition nominees.  Some predict that it won't make much 
difference in the number of elected seats overall.  Larger concerns 
regarding what may happen in the longer term -- congressional and 
presidential elections in 2009 -- have been expressed by the PS/DC 
while the PPD and the PRSD insist that the two lists will bring a 
breath of fresh air to municipal elections.  They argue that the 
move should not be interpreted as a sign of division within the 
Concertacion. 
 
¶9.  Meanwhile, the center-right opposition is salivating at the 
opportunity to exploit intra-Concertacion rivalries in the municipal 
elections.  The two parties that make up the Alianza, which 
historically run a single list in municipal elections, will try to 
ensure even greater unity this time and to increase their chances of 
victory. 
 
¶10.  Comment: Bachelet is the first Concertacion president who has 
been unable to maintain coalition unity in the face of an upcoming 
electoral cycle.  The failure to agree on a single list reveals yet 
again the differences between the four Concertacion parties, who see 
elections as a chance to increase their strength within the 
Concertacion.  However, it is difficult to predict the impact of 
"two lists" on the October elections.  Interestingly, the press 
dropped the issue of the two lists immediately after the decision 
was announced.  Only time will tell if the Concertacion parties have 
moved on as well.  End comment. 
 
SIMONS