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RR RUEHJO
DE RUEHSA #1397/01 1781758
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261758Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4899
INFO RUEHOR/AMEMBASSY GABORONE 5281
RUEHLS/AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 3649
RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 5877
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5729
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 8141
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001397 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PREF SF
SUBJECT: UNHCR / SAG CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ANTICIPATED 
ZIMBABWE REFUGEE FLOWS 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  UNHCR Regional Representative Mr. Sanda Kimbimbi briefed 
PolOffs on the UNHCR's Contingency Plan for potential mass 
refugee flows from Zimbabwe after the June 27 runoff 
election.  The Plan provides for refugee camp sites in South 
Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, and Zambia to shelter up to 
285,000 Zimbabweans (Note: a conservative estimate. End 
Note), with supplies now being stockpiled in Durban and 
Dubai.  Kimbimi is confident that the logistical requirements 
for moving bulk humanitarian supplies overland from Durban or 
by air from Dubai can be overcome.  While upper echelons of 
host states have been politically wary of discussing refugee 
scenarios on Zimbabwe, midlevel officials with operational 
responsibility are fully engaged in preparedness planning. 
Camp populations of persons displaced by xenophobic violence 
in South Africa in recent weeks have declined from a peak of 
100,000 to a current 15,000, with UNHCR assisting the SAG on 
enabling re-integration.  End Summary. 
 
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Plan for 285,000 Persons 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  The Contingency Plan that UNHCR has put in place with 
Zimbabwe's neighbors provides for refugee camp sites near 
Zimbabwe's border to accommodate up to 285,000 Zimbabweans in 
four countries -- 100,000 in South Africa; 80,000 each in 
Mozambique and Botswana; and 25,000 in Zambia.  In South 
Africa, the Plan assumes refugees would cross the border at 
Beitbridge, advance to Messina for registration and 
documentation, then proceed to a field site at Artonvilla now 
being prepared by UNHCR.  (Note: The SAG strenuously avoids 
the word "camp," so such sites are officially called "centers 
for safe shelter."  End Note)  Similar sites are being 
prepared in Mozambique (at Tete, Manica, and Gaza), Botswana 
(Francistown / Dukwe), and Zambia (Livingston, Siavunga, and 
Churundu). 
 
----------------------- 
Supply Stocks In Durban 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  Supplies for all four target countries are being 
pre-positioned in Durban.  Additional supplies in Dubai can 
be called upon if necessary.  These include a range of 
nonperishable items to serve 50,000 persons, e.g. blankets, 
cooking utensils, and 10,000 tents.  Inventories should meet 
the needs of 100,000 persons by mid-July -- with the possible 
exception of tents, since China embargoed its exports after a 
recent earthquake.  Tents are on order from Pakistan, and 
UNHCR is hunting for other UN stockpiles.  In short, Kimbimbi 
feels all is in place to respond if needed.  Transport 
logistics have proven reliable in test runs from Durban -- 
four days to Mozambique and three days to Botswana, and 
Zambia a bit longer or perhaps supplied from Tanzania. 
 
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SAG Status and Protections 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  The UNHCR Plan assumes the SAG would recognize and 
declare the Zimbabweans as refugees 'en masse,' entitling 
them to standard protections.  The SAG may uphold the 
principle of free movement, entitling the new arrivals to 
disperse to cities and townships; or it may restrict their 
movement so as not to provoke repeats of recent attacks on 
foreigners.  UN conventions would require the SAG to grant 
refugees the right to work and receive social services -- 
privileges the UNHCR acknowledges would likely be 
controversial in the current xenophobic climate.  (Note: The 
Qcontroversial in the current xenophobic climate.  (Note: The 
SAG political directorate has, in principal, supported such 
treatment of refugees, but the Department of Home Affairs has 
been an inefficient means to that end.  Moreover, there is 
less of a grassroots consensus to be so open and welcoming to 
African refugees, as reflected in the recent xenophobic 
violence.  End Note) 
 
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SAG Local Cooperation 
--------------------- 
 
PRETORIA 00001397  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  Kimbimbi said the four receiving states were initially 
reluctant to discuss contingency planning on Zimbabwe but 
have since come on board.  Hesitation was most marked in the 
national upper echelons, sensitive to the political 
ramifications of anticipating meltdown next door.  At 
provincial and local levels, however, there has been more 
pragmatic traction, among officials who would be held 
accountable for unpreparedness.  The Deputy Director General 
of SAG's Department of Home Affairs (DHA) and SAG's National 
Disaster Management Center (NDMC) are both engaged in the 
Plan, and UNHCR staff toured the planned site with all key 
SAG departments who committed resources.  The UNHCR declined 
DHA's request to perform site management, preferring that DHA 
itself assume this responsibility. 
 
------------------------------ 
IDPs: Return and Reintegration 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  Current camp populations of victims displaced by recent 
xenophobic violence have shrunk markedly from a peak of 
100,000 in late May to UNHCR's current estimate of under 
15,000.  The largest part of the decline was repatriation of 
about 40,000 Mozambicans.  In Gauteng province, IDPs peaked 
at an estimated 17,500 but are down to 6,500 now; an 
estimated 7,500 remain in shelters in the Western Cape; and 
an estimated 600 remain in care in KwaZulu Natal.  UNHCR 
hopes this 'hard core' remainder will continue to decline. 
The UNHCR last week distributed flyers offering return of 
citizens to safe countries, but stressing that resettlement 
to other third countries was not a realistic prospect. 
 
¶7.  On behalf of these IDPs, Kimbimbi said the UNHCR has 
advocated strongly for refugee documentation, regularization 
of status, and stay of deportation.  A project with the DHA 
to issue a six-month identity card/permit (with security 
features) to xenophobia victims is due to begin 
implementation this week.  For those IDPs, reintegration is 
an option, said Kimbimbi, contingent on adequate policing in 
affected areas, sensitization of local communities, 
documentation to enable returnees to feel secure, and modest 
monetary and material assistance.  Given SAG reluctance to 
set precedents it cannot sustain for future disaster victims, 
UNHCR may be called on to provide such aid packages to 
xenophobia IDPs. 
 
TEITELBAUM