VZCZCXRO0485
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #1288/01 1641531
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121531Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4759
INFO RUCPDC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0808
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0626
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0680
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1530
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0810
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 0642
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1371

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001288 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE PLEASE PASS USAID 
STATE PLEASE PASS USGS 
DEPT FOR AF/S, ISN, EEB/ESC AND CBA 
DOE FOR T.SPERL, G.PERSON, A.BIENAWSKI, M.SCOTT, L.PARKER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG EMIN EPET SENV BEXP AMGT SF
SUBJECT: ESKOM SAYS OUTAGES POSSIBLE 
 
REF: PRETORIA 982 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: State power supplier Eskom repeated its mea culpa 
and way forward themes in a business forum, admitting that there is 
still substantial risk of load-shedding during this southern 
hemisphere winter.  Eskom called for consumers to implement ten 
percent reduction in use through conservation and efficiency 
measures.  The power system remains extremely tight with 
insufficient reserve margin.  End Summary. 
 
--------------- 
How We Got Here 
--------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Eskom spokesman Andrew Etzinger spoke to the South African 
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) on June 11 about the status 
of the power crisis.  He prefaced his remarks to the SACCI with an 
apology (again) for Eskom's failure to deliver reliable power. 
Etzinger summarized the events that led to the January 24 "black 
Friday" when Eskom could not guarantee power to the mines.  Etzinger 
described the "perfect storm" combination of low and wet coal 
stockpiles, unstable power grid from planned and unplanned outages, 
and risk of system collapse that led to interruption of power to 
industry and unprecedented load-shedding. 
 
--------------------- 
Where We Go From Here 
--------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Etzinger outlined steps that had achieved power system 
stabilization, including 10 percent demand reduction from key 
industrial/mining customers, increase in coal stockpiles, additional 
maintenance completed, and steps for augmenting generation supply. 
Etzinger stressed that the system remained tight and vulnerable and 
that Eskom needed South African customers to reduce their 
electricity usage by 10 percent across the board - and not only at 
peak times.  He highlighted the need to implement energy efficiency 
and conservation measures in partnership with government and other 
stake-holders.  Etzinger called for implementation of a quota and 
penalty system, where high energy users would be penalized for 
wasteful consumption.  He noted that government would have to 
implement and regulate this system.  Etzinger stated that coal 
stockpiles at power stations had reached an average of 19.8 days - 
close to its interim target, with no station under 15 days.  He 
admitted that it was difficult to accelerate installation of 
promising solar water heaters at the targeted rate of 200,000 per 
year when there was a skills gap of 5,000 qualified plumbers over 
the currently qualified number of 5,000. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Etzinger defended Eskom's approach to its neighboring 
countries, stressing that Eskom was a net importer of electricity 
with aspirations to import incremental quantities.  He gave the 
following data: 
 
     SA ELECTRICITY IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 
 
                    (MW)                 (MW) 
Country            Imports             Exports 
                   -------             ------- 
DRC                 200 
Zambia              100 
Mozambique         1400 (Cahora Bassa)   900  (Mozal) 
Botswana                                 350 
Swaziland                                180 
Lesotho                                   24 
Namibia/Zimbabwe                     when available 
QNamibia/Zimbabwe                     when available 
 
Etzinger stressed that Eskom could not stop exports to Mozambique 
given that imports were significantly greater and growing.  He 
regretted that Eskom had stopped new connections to new domestic 
customers, but it aimed to resume these to the extent possible. 
(COMMENT: The opening of the newly constructed U.S. Consulate in 
Johannesburg will be delayed if Eskom does not provide the necessary 
power connection in the next few months.  End Comment.)  Etzinger 
described Eskom's ambitious new generation program (reftel), 
including high probability of finding a replacement for U.S. firm 
AES for provision of two peaking plants (he did not mention Suez of 
 
PRETORIA 00001288  002 OF 002 
 
 
France by name as did the Energy Minister in a separate venue). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT: There was little new at this presentation. 
Eskom's Etzinger has developed a well-honed spiel from 500 radio 
interviews and numerous power-point presentations, including a 
regular apology to the public for Eskom's failure to deliver 
reliable power.  His main message is that the system remains at 
risk, so consumers must conserve electricity.  When Energy Officer 
asked Etzinger before his presentation if there would be anything 
new in his remarks, he replied, "not really." 
 
BOST