VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPG #0334/01 1561536
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041536Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0356
INFO RUEHXQ/ALL EUROPEAN POST COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS PRAGUE 000334 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/VO/F/P AND CA/FPP 
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR DS/CR/VF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS KFRD ASEC EZ
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY - CZECH REPUBLIC: FY2006 B VISA VALIDATION 
STUDY RESULTS 
 
REFTEL: A) 07 Prague 001324; B) 06 Prague 00001454 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  According to our latest B1/B2 validation study, 0.6 percent of 
Czechs issued B1/B2 visas between October 1, 2005 and September 30, 
2006 were confirmed as remaining in the United States illegally as 
of November 2007. An additional 0.7 percent were currently in the 
United States legally on a long-term basis using another visa class, 
and a final 0.6 percent were unaccounted for. An additional 9.2 
percent did not travel, and 88.9 percent said they returned. With 
Czech accession to the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) a possibility in 
the next 18 months, post also found that only 1.5 percent of 
travelers in our sample would have required a visa under WVP due to 
a stay of greater than 90 days.  End Summary 
 
DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY 
---- ---------- --- ----------- 
 
¶2.  From August to October 2007, post's Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) 
conducted a validation study of 1000 of the 25,085 Czech nationals 
issued B1/B2 visas in Prague in FY-06, using the MS Excel 
random-number generator methodology provided by Consular 
Affairs/Fraud Prevention Program (CA/FPP). (NOTE: With Prague's 
accession to the VWP a possibility after the passage and signing of 
visa waiver reform legislation known as the "9/11 Bill" on August 
3, 
2007, post decided to align the study with the fiscal year so that 
comparisons could be made between official fiscal-year refusal rates 
and overstay rates to help with the analysis of the Czech Republic's 
ability to join VWP. End note.) FPU then attempted to contact the 
selected applicants by telephone to verify their return. Post also 
contacted employers or family members when the applicant could not 
be reached directly. Post compiled a list of 100 "unreachable" 
applicants, and CA/FPP used Department of Homeland Security (DHS) 
travel data to provide change of status and entry/exit records for 
these applicants. 
 
¶3.  Post classified as "overstays" those individuals who were 
confirmed through phone calls or DHS travel data to be in the United 
States longer than 6 months or whose numerous combined shorter stays 
indicated they were actually living in the United States. Post 
classified as "other" those for whom we could not confirm a return 
status, such as Czechs for whom DHS records were inconclusive or 
those whose family said they had left the United States but had not 
returned to the Czech Republic (e.g., living in Canada or 
Singapore). A handful of others who appeared to be in the United 
States legally on L1, J1, or B1 domestic servant visas, or who were 
just currently using their B1/B2s, were classified as "in USA." The 
other categories were "did not travel" and "returned." Finally, post 
queried travelers on their the length of stay in hopes of 
discovering approximately how many Czechs would still require a visa 
even under the VWP (i.e., had stays longer than 90 days). 
 
RESULTS: 2% DID NOT RETURN, 1% STILL IN USA LEGALLY 
-------- -- --- --- ------- -- ----- -- --- ------- 
 
¶4.  Study results show that 92 of 1000 applicants did not travel 
(similar to 94 of 1000 from our study in FY-05 applicants, see 
reftel B).  Of the 908 who did travel, 19 are still in the United 
States. Six of those are confirmed overstays of between six months 
and 1.5 years for an official overstay rate of 0.6 percent. An 
additional six, classified as "other," were unreachable or did not 
return to the Czech Republic, but information was not definitive 
enough to label them overstayers. The last seven are currently in 
the United States: three on L1 visas, one on a J1, one on a B1 as a 
domestic servant, and the final two as tourists with stays in excess 
of 2-3 months. Therefore, of the two percent of applicants who did 
not return (19 total), about half (1 percent of the total) are 
possible overstays. 
 
Average lengths of stay 
------- ------- -- ---- 
 
¶5.  Comparison with validation studies for FY-04 and FY-05 is 
difficult. While those studies showed overstay rates of 2.4 and 2.2 
percent respectively, the total numbers of people who did not return 
are similar -- about 20 each year. The difference this year is that 
some who did not return are not necessarily considered confirmed 
overstays. While it can be argued that a confirmed overstay rate of 
half of the previous year's rate is significant, post believes the 
study's methodology is not ideal. In an age of international cell 
phones and some negative public perceptions of the visa process in 
the Czech Republic, it's impossible to say with certainty that those 
who answered "yes" to whether they returned and how long they stayed 
were being truthful. In addition, mere data entry error is four 
 
percent, which would tend to suppress the true number of overstayers 
more than inflate it, as the overstayers were a small population and 
more effort went into confirming them. 
 
¶6.  As to the question of average length of stay, post was surprised 
to find that only 1.5 percent of travelers reported staying longer 
than three months and would therefore have required a visa even 
under the VWP. Nearly 81 percent of those queried reported staying 
less than one month. Nearly 18 percent stayed 1-3 months. Consular 
officers note that anecdotal evidence contradicts these statistics. 
A relatively high number of visa applicants indicate on their 
applications or during the interview that they intend to stay more 
than a month. It also is common for retired Czechs go to visit their 
relatives in the United States and stay 3-6 months. One particular 
case from early December proves the point: A young non-immigrant 
visa applicant, who was gainfully employed and "looked good on 
paper," indicated on her DS-156 that she had been to the United 
States one time several years ago for two weeks. The consular 
officer was about to issue when he saw a CLASS hit indicating the 
applicant was an eight-year overstay and just returned to the Czech 
Republic this past year after self-deportation. On our validation 
study, she would have been classified as a "return" with a stay of 
two weeks. 
 
STRONGEST INDICATORS: REGION, AGE, GENDER 
--------- ----------- ------- ---- ------ 
 
¶7.  Post grouped and evaluated validation study results by gender, 
age, region of residence, and occupation. Of the six confirmed 
overstays, four were from the economically depressed area of 
Northern Moravia, four were between 26 and 35, and five were male. 
This (save for gender) fits the profile of applicants who demand 
stronger scrutiny during interviews: those who have little higher 
education, live where there is high unemployment, and are relatively 
young. While the Czech Republic's economy is strong and its currency 
is gaining on both the dollar and the euro, a Prague newspaper 
report from November 2007 notes that Northern Moravia has an average 
unemployment rate of 10.2 percent, in sharp contrast to Prague's 2.4 
percent and a nationwide average of 6.2. In addition, wages are 
still lower in the country compared to the United States and the 
rest of the EU.  But the gap is narrowing. As wages increase, as 
unemployment in places like Prague decreases significantly, and as 
the currency strengthens (from 25 Czech crowns per dollar at the 
beginning of FY-06 to 18 today), illegal work in the United States 
looks less attractive to young people. 
 
COMMENT: 
-------- 
 
¶8.  The overstay rate of 0.6 percent, though lower than expected, is 
well within the general positive trend of the last few years (2.4 
percent in 2004, and 2.2 in 2005). This assessment also tracks well 
with the decline of the official B-visa refusal rate 11.7 percent in 
FY-04 to 6.7 percent in FY-07. The main take-away point of the 
validation study is that Czechs have a continuously improving low 
overstay rate that puts them well within the new guidelines for the 
VWP. 
 
Graber