VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #0493/01 1681608
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161608Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2179
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000493 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  EDITION 11; VOLUME II 
 
REF: PANAMA 469 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------ 
Summary 
------ 
 
¶1.  (C)  Our headlines in this edition of the Panama Post are: 
 
-- Panama's leading pollster says "basic political dynamic 
remains unchanged;" 
-- Tearing a page from PRD presidential nomination candidate 
Juan Carlos Navarro's play book, Panamenista presidential 
nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino releases an internal 
poll; 
-- Navarro and Vallarino get in trouble with the Electoral 
Tribunal (TE) for releasing polls; 
-- Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares takes 
a shot at PRD presidential nomination candidates Balbina 
Herrera and at President Torrijos; 
-- a dentist (and gadfly Panamenista presidential nomination 
candidate) takes aim at Panamenista contender Juan Carlos 
Varela; 
-- Herrera effectively uses internet to pull in and harness 
youth support. 
 
End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
Leopoldo Neira: "Basic Political Dynamic Remains Unchanged" 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶2. (C) "If the general elections were held today," leading 
Panama City-based polling agency Dichter and Neira Executive 
President Leopoldo Neira told POLCOUNS on June 12, "the 
(governing Revolutionary Democratic Party) PRD -- whether 
Balbina or Navarro -- would win easily."  Contrary to what 
other polls were indicating, Neira added, "The basic 
political dynamic remains unchanged."  Categorically 
rejecting the notion that the PRD primary race was becoming 
competitive, Neira said that Balbina Herrera still had a 
commanding lead in the internal PRD race leading Juan Carlos 
Navarro by some twenty points.  Furthermore and again 
contrary to what other polling had indicated, the Panamenista 
primary race remained a horse race; "Vallarino and Varela are 
essentially tied."  "Essentially, all the candidates have 
more or less stayed at the same levels.  Nobody has 
significantly changed the political dynamic." 
 
¶3. (C) According to Neira, to date attacks on Balbina 
labeling her a dangerous, Chavez-style populist had had no 
effect on her standing in the polls.  Furthermore, he said he 
was mystified by the results uncovered by his polls that 
indicated that President Torrijos was still widely popular. 
"How can Martin have such high approval ratings when he gets 
such horrible grades for following through on his campaign 
pledges and for governing?" he asked rhetorically. 
Panamanian political behavior was highly personalistic and 
basically boiled to a what-am-I-going-to-get-out-of-this 
mentality, Neira explained.  In his experience, candidates 
who were willing to grind it out, shake every hand they 
could, visit personally everybody they could, and slave for 
the election would eventually win.  In light of this view, 
Neira said he was not prepared to write off Navarro in the 
PRD primary, gave the advantage to Varela in the tight 
Panamenista race, and thought that Martinelli would be 
competitive in the generals. 
 
¶4. (C) Sharing advanced results of Dichter and Neira's June 
poll -- expected to be published shortly in Panama City daily 
Panama America, Neira passed the following overall results: 
 
                      May          June 
                      ---          ---- 
Balbina Herrera       26.1         25.8 
Ricardo Martinelli    19.3         19.3 
Juan Carlos Navarro   14.8         14.8 
Juan Carlos Varela     6.0          6.5 
Alberto Vallarino      4.2          5.8 
Guillermo Endara       1.3          1.0 
Laurentino Cortizo     0.2          0.4 
Marco Ameglio          0.1          0.3 
Will Not Vote          0.4          0.3 
None                  12.0         10.1 
Don't Know/No Answer  15.2         15.8 
 
¶5. (C) Comment:Dichter and Neira just went through a nasty 
break-up with Panama City broadsheet La Prensa.  Neira 
explained that that La Prensa had insisted on exclusive 
rights to publicize his polls rejecting requests to all the 
information to be more widely distributed through radio and 
television.  Neira is now working with Panama America, W 
Radio, and TVN to share this information more widely "in the 
public interest."  Clearly bruised by attacks on his 
company's name -- attacks insinuating that commercial 
insights swayed his polls, that the company was fixing the 
results, etc. -- Neira said he would share his final, 
non-publicized polling data collected in the final two weeks 
of the campaign during which period polling results may not 
be publicized.  He said he would pass this data to the 
Catholic Church, the Electoral Tribunal (TE), and now the 
U.S. Embassy.  Neira estimated that well less than five 
percent of Dichter and Neira's business was connected 
political polling.  Annually, the company did about 800 
opinion studies of various kinds releasing about three 
reports each day.  Neira said that over the years Dichter and 
Neira had invested significant time, energy, and money in 
fine tuning its demographic database, the only database of 
its kind among Panamanian pollsters.  Political polling was 
essentially the firm's "loss leader" keeping the firm's brand 
in the front of Panamanians minds.  Most of the company's 
pollsters are on permanent contract and, because of the 
steady rhythm of its opinion surveys, are basically fully 
employed.  On its political polls, Dichter and Neira deploys 
its executives -- including Neira himself -- to ensure high 
quality data collection and oversight and the executives 
generally account for half of its political pollsters. 
Dichter and Neira has called all of Panama's elections and 
referenda since the restoration of democracy in 1989 within a 
couple of points.  The Panama Post eagerly accepted Neira's 
offer to receive Dichter and Neira's polling results 
throughout the political season. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Dueling Polls: Vallarino Releases Internal Poll 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. (U) "The campaign center of Engineer Alberto Vallarino has 
decided to publish an extract of two polls conducted by our 
campaign," a campaign "Special Announcement" declared on 
albertopresidente.com on June 6.  "We have taken this 
decision -- departing from what until now had been our policy 
-- with the aim of confronting a disinformation campaign 
directed against Panamenista presidential pre-candidates." 
Leading with this declaration, Panamenista Party presidential 
nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino strove to respond to 
"disorienting polls" some of which were "manipulated" that 
showed Panamenista candidates receiving very low support 
"that do not track with the size of our party nor with the 
dynamic that we have observed in recent months.  The 
Vallarino campaign released redacted results from the March 
and April polls that it commissioned from Venezuelan polling 
outfit DOXA.  The campaign asserted, that as a Venezuelan 
pollster, DOXA did not have "commercial commitments with any 
company in Panama." 
 
¶7. (U) Highlights of this poll include: 
 
-- Overwhelming majorities of those polled stated in March 
(84%) and April (78%) that Panama was headed in the wrong 
direction.  While a steady number believed things would 
improve over the coming year (34% in March and 33% in April), 
majorities thought that conditions would get worse (47% in 
March and 35% in April) or much worse (11% in March and 12% 
in April). 
-- Among Panamenista candidates, Vallarino had the highest 
positives (46% and 50% in March and April) and lowest 
negatives (36% and 33%).  Fellow Panamenista candidate Juan 
Carlos Varela's positives were 35% and 41% and his negatives 
were 41% and 42% in March and April respectively. 
-- The poll showed Vallarino closing the gap with Varela. 
According to DOXA, in March Varela led Vallarino by 4 points 
(38% to 34%), and in April Varela led Vallarino by 2 points 
(31% to 29%.  Those stating that they would not vote jumped 
50 percent, from 14% in March to 22% in April. 
-- Among leading opposition candidates, at 22%, Vallarino was 
essentially tied in April with Varela and Democratic Change 
(CD) candidate Ricardo Martinelli who both polled 23% on a 
question assessing who the preferred opposition candidate 
was.  Compared to March, Varela's  and Vallarino's numbers 
were essentially the same (22% for Vallarino and 24% for 
Varela in March), but Martinelli fell 4 points. 
-- Among governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) 
candidates, Balbina Herrera was the preferred choice, though 
Navarro was making up some ground.  From March to April, 
Herrera fell from 51% to 38%, while Navarro rose from 24% to 
27%. 
-- In April, asked to choose from among the three leading 
Panamenista candidates, 55% of respondents chose Vallarino, 
33% chose Varela, and 7%  chose Ameglio.  In April, asked to 
choose only between Vallarino and Varela, Vallarino's numbers 
fell to 50% and Varela rose to 39%.  Vallarino's numbers 
improved on these two questions from March to April while 
Varela's remained essentially stagnant. 
-- Asked in April only who was most capable of unifying the 
opposition, Vallarino out polled Varela by ten points (42% to 
32%) and Ameglio was a distant third at 5%.  A total of 20% 
did not know or respond. 
 
¶8. (U) Technical information:  The polls were conducted 
nationally, except in the provinces of Bocas del Toro and 
Darien and in the indigenous reservations (comarcas).  A 
total of 1,200 individuals were interviewed for the general 
questions, and a total of 500 Panamenista party registered 
members were interviewed for the party-specific questions. 
The poll has a 95 percent confidence rating and a margin of 
error of  /- 3 percent. 
 
¶9. (C)  Comment:  In releasing an internal poll, Vallarino is 
lifting a play from PRD presidential nomination candidate 
Navarro's play book.  One major difference, aside from the 
fact that Navarro's poll was more current, though is that 
Navarro's release of his PSM SigmaDos poll included much more 
context and technical data regarding the poll.  Both of these 
DOXA polls were conducted before the CID Gallup, Dichter and 
Neira, and PSM SigmaDos polls suggested that Varela was 
beating Vallarino in the internal Panamenista race.  The 
technical data provided in this "special announcement" is 
incomplete.  The dates of the field work are unknown.  The 
methodology -- face-to-face or telephone interviews; randomly 
selected neighborhoods and homes or street interviews; 
numbers of people interviewed per home/site; etc. -- is also 
not clear.  The responses concerning the overall direction of 
Panama track very closely with other polling.  The DOXA poll 
shows a wider gap between Herrera and Navarro, but then these 
polls covered earlier periods than polling that suggests a 
narrower gap.  Where this poll differences significantly is 
that it suggests that Martinelli, Vallarino, and Varela are 
closer in the opposition-wide race and that Vallarino is out 
pacing Varela by 20  points, results that do not track with 
other polling outfits' more recent results.  Given the murky 
data laid out in this "special announcement" and the less 
than satisfying technical data, the release of this internal 
polling information can only be understood as an effort to 
stem what has become a negative narrative for Vallarino, a 
narrative that suggests that Vallarino is underperforming and 
not meeting expectations.  Perhaps the most telling tidbit of 
data circulated in this announcement -- at least the aspect 
that Vallarino wants to push the most -- is the result of 
this poll that suggests that Vallarino is the Panamenista 
candidate most capable of unifying the opposition. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
Vallarino (and Navarro) Get in Trouble Over Poll Releases 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶10. (U) The Electoral Tribunal (TE) launched June 9 an 
investigation into the release of internal polling data by 
two campaigns, the campaigns of Panamenista presidential 
nomination candidate Alberto Vallarino (see paras 2-5) and 
PRD presidential nomination candidate Juan Carlos Navarro 
(REFTEL).  Panama City broadsheet daily La Prensa reported 
that one TE source indicated that Vallarino's DOXA poll had 
not been registered with the TE.  While Navarro's poll had 
been registered, this source told La Prensa that there had 
been irregularities in the information that Navarro's 
campaign released.  The campaigns will have three days to 
respond to the investigation. 
 
¶11. (C) Comment: To prevent monkey business with polls, all 
polling results must be registered with the TE.  Since 
Panama's major media outlets broke ties with Panama's leading 
polling outfits over the past couple of months, polling 
results tend to circulate by word of mouth and via informal 
e-mail mass mailings.  The Panama Post has had significant 
success procuring polling results directly from campaigns and 
candidates and routinely scours the internet for the latest 
posts.  Absent reliable and regular publication of polling by 
media outlets and tempted to use polling results to their 
advantage, the campaigns themselves may be inclined to 
distribute polling results directly themselves.  That the TE 
has acted quickly to examine this new practice is an example 
of the TE's forward-leaning posture.  The maximum penalty for 
this kind of electoral misdeed is USD 25,000. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
El Toro Takes a Shot at Balbina, Torrijos 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares 
took shots at PRD presidential nomination candidate Balbina 
Herrera and President Torrijos during his June 9 appearance 
on the talk show "Enfoque (Focus)" and in the wake of his 
endorsement of PRD presidential nomination candidate Juan 
Carlos Varela.  El Toro questioned why Herrera sought the 
"blessing" of the U.S. Embassy before launching her campaign, 
noting that he never would have "consulted" with the embassy. 
 Continuing, he asserted that Herrera was now traveling to 
the U.S. to meet with the Council of the Americas -- "a 
foundation established by the Rockafellers" -- to try to 
prove that she was not a leftist, "which she is."  Regarding 
his own Category I U.S. visa ineligibility for alien 
smuggling, El Toro excoriated the Torrijos Administration for 
failing in its "patriotic responsibility" by not "demanding" 
proof from the USG for the grounds for "canceling" his visa, 
something he characterized (again) as a political matter.  El 
Toro asserted that Torrijos had been blocking "diplomatic" 
efforts to restore his visa.  The former president said that 
he would keep open the office of running for re-election in 
¶2014. 
 
¶13. (C) Comment:  Appearing on the El Toro-friendly program 
"Enfoque"  -- Dorita Reyna, the show's host, and her family 
received checks in connection with the PECC corruption 
scandal, a scandal that also lined the pockets of El Toro -- 
Perez Balladares made his most visible appearance in his 
efforts to offer "political support" to Navarro.  It is 
unclear what impact these barbs will have on the campaign. 
For the record:  the Embassy obviously did not "bless" 
Herrera's candidacy, but has sustained routine political 
contact with this leading PRD politician just as the Embassy 
does with politicians across Panama's political spectrum. 
 
--------------------------- 
Dentist Takes Aim at Varela 
--------------------------- 
 
¶14. (U) Making a media splash in the June 10 newspapers, 
Panamenista presidential candidate Jorge Gamboa took aim at 
fellow contender Juan Carlos Varela by insinuating that he 
did not have "clean hands," Varela's campaign slogan, and 
that he had a "double campaign" to take the Panamenista party 
into alliance "with external forces" be accepting a VP slot. 
Gamboa demanded that Varela explain whether he was receiving 
campaign financing from a "Costa Rican-Panamanian scandal" 
involving the (Catholic) Episcopal Conference of Costa Rica 
and Servicios Pastorales Latinoamericanos, S.A., a Panamanian 
company set up by the conference.  Gamboa noted that the 
General Superintendency of Financial Entities of Costa Rica 
(SUGEF) had ordered the conference to cease its "intermediary 
financial operations" and return to investors all funds 
invested in the Panamanian company, an order that the 
conference allegedly ignored. Gamboa asserted there was a 
hidden link to Varela since Panamenista Party VP Alvaro 
Aleman had established the Panamanian company.  Referring to 
the March 6, 2007 "Pese Pact (Pacto de Pese) between CD 
presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli and Varela, Gamboa 
also asked Varela to explain his "double campaign with an 
outside campaign" to draw the Panamenista Party into an 
alliance while only securing the VP slot on the ticket. 
 
¶15. (C) Comment:  This gadlfy candidate -- one of the Panama 
Post's contacts in the Panamenista Movement for Action (MAPA) 
-- has been angling for media attention ever since the last 
minute filing of his candidacy and after being denied a place 
on the dais for two Panamenista debates. (Note:  Only the top 
three polling candidates Varela, Vallarino, and Varela were 
offered the opportunity to debate.  Gamboa, a dentist, is 
nowhere in the polls.)  The charges of receiving funds from 
the Costa Rican Episcopal Conference are unlikely to go very 
far.  Aleman's bread and butter in his legal practice is 
establishing corporations like the one he established for the 
conference.  Also, no case has been made there was any wrong 
doing in Panama as far as setting up this company; 
allegations of wrong-doing seem, at least for the moment, to 
be contained in Costa Rica.  Also, there has been no 
indication that any amount of funds have found their way from 
Costa Rica through this company across Aleman's desk and into 
Varela's pocket.  The more damaging charge though is the 
accusation that Varela wants to take the party into alliance 
while only securing the VP slot.  Playing second fiddle in 
the opposition is anathema to Panamenista movers and shakers 
as well as rank-and-file, particularly if the likely alliance 
partner is Ricardo Martinelli and his CD party. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Balbina's Impressive Internet Presence 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶16. (U) "The use of on-line technology is tied to the fact 
that 65,000 new young voters will participate in the 2009 
presidential elections," La Prensa journalist Manuel Vega Loo 
wrote on June 1, 2008. POL Rangel Fellow has been reviewing 
internet presence during the presidential primary elections. 
The internet has been a vital resource to Panama's 
presidential candidates, allowing them to establish grass 
roots support among the youth. Candidates have used social 
networking sites Facebook, Myspace, Flickr, and YouTube to i) 
mobilize youth supporters, ii) publicize their platforms, 
iii) recruit campaign volunteers, and iv) increase party 
membership. Competing political parties have registered over 
5,000 Facebook users and will continue to expand their 
audience as the election develops. 
 
¶17. (SBU) PRD presidential candidate Balbina Herrera has the 
most effectively implemented internet strategy. Herrera was 
the first presidential candidate to accept POL's on-line 
registration request to Facebook and responded in less than 
one day. Herrera's campaign responded promptly with e-mails 
promoting her position on relevant political issues including 
the global food crisis and the high cost of political 
campaigns. Herrera also used Facebook to publicize campaign 
activities and recruit campaign volunteers. Our Rangel Fellow 
on the beat received an invitation to attend one of Herrera's 
youth rallies on June 7, 2008 in Panama City's working class 
neighborhood, Santa Ana. Herrera's on-line Facebook 
administrator also followed up with an invitation to meet in 
person. PRD presidential candidate Juan Carlos Navarro 
responded to POL's registration request seven days later on 
June 9, 2008. POL has not received a response from 
presidential candidates Martinelli, Varela, or Vallarino. 
 
¶18. (SBU) "Balbina promises the Panamanian youth a strong 
voice in Government," a Balbina youth volunteer told POL at 
the campaign rally in Santa Ana. A total of 35 youth 
volunteers gathered to campaign for Herrera in Circuito 8-7, 
Panama's second largest voting district. The youth 
demographic, ages 18-30, is a vital component to the PRD 
party, comprising 30% of party membership. Herrera's platform 
seeks to directly address issues important to Panamanian 
youth: education reform and job security. Her promise to 
place fresh young faces in office strengthens her favor among 
young voters. Youth supporters also organized additional 
campaigns to take place simultaneously in Tocumen and 
Chorrillo. 
 
 
EATON