VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #0469/01 1581723
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 061723Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2142
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000469 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  EDITION 10, VOLUME II 
 
REF: PANAMA 433 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons:  1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) In this edition of the Panama Post, our top stories 
include: 
 
-- Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares 
announces that he will endorse Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos 
Navarro in the race to secure the governing Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD) presidential nomination; 
-- PRD presidential nomination candidate Balbina Herrera's 
confidante provides a glimpse into Herrera's inner circle and 
lets slip that National Assembly President Pedro Miguel 
Gonzalez (PMG) might run for re-election; 
-- A weak field of PRD National Assembly Deputies emerges in 
the race to succeed PMG as the chamber's president; 
-- PSM SigmaDos' poll confirms trend that Navarro has closed 
significantly the gap against Herrera, though he still trails; 
-- In an effort to preserve the bargaining power of Patriotic 
Union (UP), UP President Guillermo "Billy" Ford announces he 
will seek his party's presidential nomination. 
 
End summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
El Toro Won't Run, Endorses Navarro 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  Former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares 
publicly endorsed PRD presidential nomination candidate Juan 
Carlos Navarro and put an end to speculation that he might 
seek the PRD nomination himself following his lunch with 
Navarro at Panama City culinary haunt Casa de Mariscos on 
June 4.  Reaction from PRD presidential nomination candidate 
Balbina Herrera's camp was immediate.  Herrera herself, in a 
radio interview, said that discussion of this endorsement 
"bored" her.  Herrera acolyte National Assembly Deputy Hector 
Aleman characterized El Toro's endorsement as "the kiss of 
death" for Navarro and asserted that Perez Balladares had the 
right to "once again choose to support a loser."  Other 
Herrera supporters suggested that the life preserver that El 
Toro had thrown to Navarro was made out of lead.  Perez 
Balladares said he offered his "political" support to Navarro 
and demurred on whether he would offer any financial support. 
 Responding to speculation that Navarro might offer Perez 
Balladares's wife, Dora Boyd de Perez Balladares, the VP 
slot, Navarro dismissed the rumor noting that no such promise 
had been made to secure El Toro's support. 
 
¶3. (C) Comment:  So what does this mean?  Well, it means that 
Perez Balladares will not run for president again, at least 
not as a PRD candidate.  Herrera soundly defeated Perez 
Balladares in the election for PRD President.  El Toro does 
have a loyal following though, but that following from the 
PRD's right wing is generally not inclined to support the 
PRD's left-wing "tendency (tendencia)" faction from which 
Herrera hails.  The most that can be said is that by 
endorsing Navarro, El Toro may be able to mobilize a compact 
and committed minority of the PRD to back Navarro and perhaps 
open their pocketbooks to him.  A polarizing figure in 
Panamanian politics, Perez Balladares strikes a disconsonant 
chord with many Panamanians, including PRD faithful.  His 
endorsement may turn out to be a wash, but the Herrera camp's 
quick reaction to it suggests that they at least are taking 
it seriously for now. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Member of Balbina's Inner Circle Dishes 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) The Panama Post sat down with Manuel Ng, one of PRD 
presidential nomination candidate Balbina Herrera's "closest 
friends" who participates regularly in her "inner circle" 
meetings on June 2.  While admitting that PRD presidential 
nomination candidate Juan Carlos Navarro was doing "much 
better in the city," Ng claimed that Herrera's own internal 
polling showed that she was leading Navarro by 16 points.  Ng 
said that Herrera continued to use Dichter and Neira as its 
pollster and that the campaign supplemented this outfit's 
periodic polls with telephone polling.  He conceded that 
Herrera was weak in Herrera (ironic) and Chiriqui provinces 
and acknowledged that many of the businessmen that attended a 
recent Herrera fund-raiser with business leaders had also 
attended Navarro's fund-raiser.  Navarro, according to Ng, 
had the support of local PRD party structures across the 
country in large part due to his tenure as President of the 
National Mayors Association.  Nonetheless, as evidenced by 
the approach to Herrera by "two mayors who signed public 
letters supporting Navarro," Navarro could only rely so far 
on this network for support.  Ng explained that these mayors' 
"bases and staff are with Balbina, so the mayors can't stay 
with him or else it would mean political suicide for them." 
 
¶5. (C)  Ng let slip that National Assembly President Pedro 
Miguel Gonzalez (PMG), under federal indictment in connection 
with the 1992 murder of a U.S. serviceman, could reconsider 
his decision -- telegraphed in a letter to "comrade and 
Secretary General Martin Torrijos" -- not to run for 
re-election as president of the chamber.  "Pedro Miguel 
signed the letter because Martin asked him to; that was it," 
but the U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) was 
stalled and, with political changes in the U.S. in the 
offing, "who knew what could happen," Ng said.  Asked if 
Herrera would support PMG's re-election, Ng said, "Yes, but 
she would take a 'well, it's his right' neutral position." 
 
¶6. (C) "I don't think that Balbina knows how the Embassy 
works.  You should meet with her and give her a briefing," Ng 
said.  Asking questions himself about the Embassy, Ng 
commented that he too did not really understand what the 
Embassy was or did, adding that most Panamanians though of it 
as made up of State, military and intelligence officers. 
"After she wins the primaries," Ng said, "nobody is going to 
stop us.  She will be the next president." 
 
¶7. (C) Bio note:  Ng is a 39-year old businessman from 
Penonome, Cocle province.  He is widely regarded as one of 
Herrera's "closest friends."  Ng's brother, Julio Ng, is a 
deputy in the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN).  Manuel 
is married, has two young daughters, and owns several 
restaurants in Cocle.  Though he lives in Penonome, he 
travels weekly to "inner circle" meetings with Herrera in 
Panama City.  Ng, who asserts that Herrera has no ties in 
Cocle, stated that the candidate had been his house guest on 
several occasions.  Active in the PRD for over 20 years, Ng 
said he met Herrera when he was 19 and Herrera was Mayor of 
San Miguelito.  Despite their age difference, Ng asserted 
that the two "clicked" and have ever since remained close 
friends.  Currently, Ng is a member of the PRD's 
Businessmen's Front (Frente Empresarial), one of the party's 
4,200 delegates, Herrera's Cocle campaign coordinator, and 
substitute deputy (suplente) for National Assembly Deputy 
Cesar Pardo.  He stated that were Herrera to win that he 
would likely assume an important position in Herrera's 
administration. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: Ng is certainly an Herrera insider worth 
cultivating further.  While he may have access to Herrera's 
sanctum sanctorum, it is not clear what influence Ng may have 
on Herrera.  Ng's review of the state of the internal PRD 
campaign from Herrera's point of view does, however, suggest 
that Herrera has an understanding that she is in a tougher 
primary race than she lets on in public.  Ng's statements 
that a PMG campaign to win re-election as President of the 
National Assembly may still be in play and that Herrera would 
at least implicitly support him are worrisome, particularly 
in light of the weak field of successors that has already 
declared its candidacies (see paras 9-10). 
 
------------------------------- 
Aspirants to Succeed PMG Emerge 
------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Seven PRD National Assembly Deputies have let their 
colleagues know that they intend to run to replace U.S. 
federally indicted Deputy Pedro Miguel Gonzalez (PMG) as 
President of the National Assembly.  The following are 
snapshots of these contenders: 
 
-- Benicio Robinson:  This three-term legislator, though he 
has not held the terms consecutively, hails from Bocas del 
Toro province.  In the past, Robinson has been linked to 
former President Ernest "El Toro" Perez Balladares, 
particularly in leaking regarding internal PRD bench 
information.  A supporter of Juan Carlos Navarro for the PRD 
presidential nomination, Robinson had a falling out over 
business dealings with fellow PRD deputy Omar Chen who is 
presently acting as Balbina Herrera's gatekeeper on her 
campaign to secure the PRD presidential nomination. 
Allegedly, Chen forged Robinson's signature on documents 
related to a land deal in Bocas del Toro thereby robbing 
Robinson, ostensibly his business partner, of several 
properties.  The matter was never properly investigate let 
alone pursued in court since both Robinson and Chen have 
legislative immunities. 
 
-- Raul Rodriguez -- This two-term legislator hails from 
Chiriqui where he represents a small, rural, and poor 
district dominated by Ngobe Bugle indigenous people. 
Previously, from September 1, 2006 to August 31, 2007, he 
served as VP of the chamber.  His wife is a member of the 
Virzi family, a powerful and wealthy Veraguas-based. Inside 
the PRD, Rodriguez is a supporter of President Martin 
Torrijos who is also the PRD's Secretary General. 
 
-- Dennis Arce -- This three-term legislator also represents 
a district in Chiriqui province.  Though not considered a PRD 
bench heavy weight, he nonetheless has run unsuccessfully for 
chamber president on several occasions.  Once as a 
consolation prize, Arce was awarded for one year the 
chairmanship of the powerful Budget Committee.  Normally 
though, he serves on social-oriented committees such as the 
Education Committee.  His daughter is consul in Milan, and 
his son is a deputy to the Central American Parliament 
(PARLACEN). 
 
-- Cesar Pardo -- A seasoned PRD operative, Pardo is a 
three-term legislator from Cocle province.  In a province 
traditionally dominated by the now basically extinct Liberal 
Party, Pardo was left as one of the few PRD "caciques 
(chiefs)."  His substitute (suplente), Manuel Ng (see paras 
2-6) is a close aide to Balbina Herrera.  During "El Toro's" 
tenure as president, Pardo's son, a graduate of a Mexican 
medical school, became embroiled in a scandal involving the 
sale of fake Mexican college diplomas.  While several 
Panamanians went to jail, Pardo's son was not among them. 
The speculation at the time was that Pardo, who was then 
National Assembly President, acted to protect his son.  Pardo 
is on speaking terms with Torrijos and maintains close ties 
to Perez Balladares. 
 
-- Hermisenda Perea -- One of the few woman legislators, 
Perea is serving in her first term representing a Panama City 
district that includes some of the poorest areas of the city. 
 Though still an assembly freshman, Perea was elected as VP 
of the chamber early during Torrijos' tenure as president. 
She is a strong support of PMG, has worked closely with First 
Lady Vivian de Torrijos on various social projects, and grew 
close to then-Housing Minister Balbina Herrera following 
flooding in the Curundu neighborhood in her district and 
subsequent fires in the same area. 
 
-- Jerry Wilson -- A former Supreme Court Magistrate under 
the Noriega regime, Wilson was also widely known for the big 
bashes he threw at his ranch in honor of the now disbanded 
Panamanian Defense Forces (PDF) and Noriega.  Currently in 
his third term as legislator, Wilson was President of the 
National Assembly when Torrijos was sworn in 2004.  Torrijos 
secured the chamber's presidency for Wilson.  In a 
long-winded speech before the international media, Wilson 
delivered thanked everybody under the sun -- including his 
ex-wives -- for allowing him to achieve the exalted position 
of President of the National Assembly.  According to media 
reports, Wilson said, "Thank you" thirty-two times. 
President-elect Torrijos was speechless, First Lady-to-be 
Torrijos was furious, and Wilson, who cried, earned the 
nickname "little tear (lagrimita)." 
 
-- Rogelio Paredes -- Son of a hardcore PRD founder of the 
same name, Paredes is in his second term representing a 
Panama province district.  For most of his time in the 
chamber, he has served as Chairman of the Human Rights 
Committee.  In the Perez Balladares Administration, he was 
Vice Minister of Housing.  Paredes was the final hold-out in 
the 2007 race against PMG for the chamber presidency, not 
opposing PMG on ideological or other grounds, but rather 
because he wanted the job.  He is considered a long-shot 
candidate to succeed PMG. 
 
¶10. (C) Comment:  The brief vignettes above should give our 
readership an inkling of the kind of Star Wars bar nature of 
the PRD National Assembly Deputies' race for the presidency 
of the chamber.  The current field of candidates is 
surprisingly weak, and the Panama Post cannot provide any 
tips as far as which horse to bet on.  The Panama Post asks 
itself, however: if the field is so weak and nobody starts 
galvanizing support soon, what stronger candidate might 
emerge to succeed PMG or would one? 
 
--------------------------------- 
PSM SigmaDos Poll Confirms Trends 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Eager to tell the Panamanian electorate that he was 
gaining fast on fellow governing Revolutionary Democratic 
Party (PRD) presidential candidate Balbina Herrera, Panama 
City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro published the results of a PSM 
SigmaDos poll that he had contracted.  This poll assesses the 
voter intentions solely/solely of PRD members.  Prospective 
respondents names were drawn from the party rolls as 
identified in the Electoral Tribunal's records; respondents 
self-confirmed their party affiliation.  According to this 
poll, Navarro trails Herrera by 5 points, polling 43 percent 
to Herrera's 48 percent. The poll also proposed a number of 
general election scenarios.  Both Navarro and Herrera would 
enjoy the support of about two-thirds of PRD party members, 
according to four hypothetical general election scenarios. 
Navarro took the lead over Herrera as the candidate with the 
most capacity and/or ability to resolve Panama's security/law 
and order problems: 37 percent of respondents said Navarro 
would do a better job while 34 percent said Herrera would. 
Asked who would be best able to solve the problem of the 
rising price of the basic basket of goods (canasta basica), 
the two candidates were essentially tied with Navarro at 34 
percent and Herrera at 33 percent. 

¶12. (U) Technical Data:  This poll, published as an insert in 
several Panama City newspapers, was prepared for Navarro's 
campaign.  The target group was Panamanian citizens, over the 
age of 18, who are members of the PRD and who reside in 
Panama, and the total universe of possible respondents in 
this target group was 597,522 people. The poll was conducted 
nationally, except in the Darien province and the indigenous 
reservations (comarcas).  A total of 1,223 people were 
interviewed, the margin of error was 2.8 percent, and the 
level of confidence was 95 percent.  The sample was 
stratified according to socioeconomic distribution. 
Interviews were conducted face-to-face from May 9 through 13. 
Interviews were conducted in homes, not on the street or in 
commercial locations. Only those prospective respondents who 
passed the filter (e.g., PRD members over the age of 18 
residing in Panama) were polled.  The starting point for 
interviews in each neighborhood was randomly selected.  Then 
each fifth home was visited in Panama province and each third 
house in the rest of the polled area.  Only one person per 
home was interviewed.  Dangerous neighborhoods were excluded 
in the interest of protecting the pollsters' safety.  No 
pollster interviewed themselves or another pollster or 
pollster's friend or family member.  Supervisors verified and 
validated previously done interviews at variable intervals, 
covering about 30 percent of the polled area and individuals. 
 
¶13. (C)  Comment:  Navarro political advisor Ivan Gonzalez 
was elated with the trends that the latest polling is 
revealing when he met with POLCOUNS on May 27.  "We still 
have a lot of work to do, but we have a better machine and 
are working it hard."  In particular, Gonzalez was very happy 
with the response to the security/law and order question, 
explaining, "We've been pushing the message that Navarro is 
the one best prepared to deal with the security problem and 
that is showing up in the polls.  Next we're going to 
underscore that Balbina is bad for the economy and that 
Navarro is good."  The only thing that elated Gonzalez more 
was how dismissive and unconcerned Herrera and her advisors 
were reacting to the latest polling.  CID/Gallup (reftel), 
Dichter and Neira, and now PSM SigmaDos as well as some 
internal polling all confirm the closing trend in the PRD. 
Herrera confidante and National Assembly Deputy Hector Aleman 
brushed off questions regarding the polling in a May 27 radio 
interview as reflecting a mere momentary blip. 
 
------------------------------------- 
UP's Ford Declares Run for Presidency 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (U) Former First VP and current President of Patriotic 
Union (UP) Guillermo "Billy" Ford announced his candidacy for 
UP's presidential nomination on May 29.  In doing so, Ford 
declared that his candidacy was not intended to obstruct 
opposition unity.  Ford did state, however, that he ensured 
that UP was taken seriously as an important player in the 
broader opposition.  UP VP Jose Raul Mulino will serve as 
interim president of the party now that Ford has declared his 
candidacy. 
 
¶15. (C) Comment:  Ford's run is not a serious drive for the 
Palacio de las Garzas Presidential Palace.  He is nowhere in 
the polls and shows no prospects of being able to improve his 
standing.  Furthermore, Ford is in poor health owing to this 
lifetime smoker's poor lung condition.  Furthermore, he has 
not been able to sustain lengthy periods out on the stump 
without landing himself in the hospital to recover.  Rather 
this push is an effort to maintain UP's unity and to remind 
his VPs Anibal Galindo and Jose Raul Mulino -- the former 
preferring Martinelli and the latter Vallarino -- that he is 
not a potted plant, figure head leader of this new party. 
Ford previously has told POLCOUNS that he wants to get the 
best deal for UP in joining other opposition parties to form 
an alliance.  Commenting to the press, Ford has noted that UP 
should not go with the first alliance offer that is made to 
it, suggesting that UP is looking for the best alliance deal 
possible.  Ford's presidential candidacy should be seen and 
interpreted in this light. 
 
ARREAGA