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Viewing cable 08MOSCOW1568, BLACK SEA FLEET STIRS CONTROVERSY BETWEEN RUSSIA AND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08MOSCOW1568 2008-06-04 03:47 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Moscow
VZCZCXRO0533
RR RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #1568/01 1560347
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040347Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8389
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001568 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
REF:  A. MOSCOW 1517 
       B. MOSCOW 1330 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: MARR MCAP PBTS PGOV PREL ECIN ETRD WTRO
SUBJECT: BLACK SEA FLEET STIRS CONTROVERSY BETWEEN RUSSIA AND 
UKRAINE 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  The dispute over the termination of Russia's 
Black Sea Fleet basing in Sevastopol by 2017 has only grown more 
intense since Russia celebrated the fleet's 225th anniversary on May 
12.  In response to Ukrainian President Yushchenko's order to draw 
up a draft law by July 20 to terminate all international agreements 
regarding the Black Sea Fleet's base, the Russian MFA asserted it 
was too early to consider the fleet's status, and predicted that the 
fleet would continue to be located in Ukraine, with Medvedev 
counseling Yushchenko against any hasty decision.  MFA negotiators 
argue that treaty language foresaw a "likely" extension of the 
lease, with experts stressing Russia's resistance to Sevastopol 
falling into NATO hands.  FM Lavrov accused the GOU of fanning 
populist flames to galvanize support for NATO accession, a move he 
said would have dire consequences.  Russian experts point to 
statements by Ukrainian officials potentially linking Sevastopol's 
status to Russia's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession as a 
further irritant.  Mayor Luzhkov's recent comments questioning 
Crimea's Ukrainian status continue to reverberate, with the MFA 
announcing a tit-for-tat travel ban and a local newspaper falling 
victim to the Mayor's wrath.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Russia Presumes Right to Sevastopol... 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On May 21, the MFA posted a response to Ukrainian President 
Yushchenko's May 20 decree ordering his cabinet to draft a law by 
July 20 that would terminate all international agreements on the 
presence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine.  Citing the 1997 
Agreements on the Status and Conditions of Stationing the Black Sea 
Fleet of the Russian Federation on the Territory of Ukraine, the 
Parameters for Division of the Black Sea Fleet, and on Mutual 
Settlements Associated with the Division of the Black Sea Fleet and 
with the Russian Federation Black Sea Fleet's Presence on the 
Territory of Ukraine, MFA officials pointed out that the Agreements 
provide for automatic five-year extensions past their 2017 
expiration unless one side notified the other in writing one year 
prior.  Thus, the MFA said the GOR presumed that the Black Sea Fleet 
would continue to be based in Ukraine in the future, and argued 
Russia and Ukraine should concentrate on practical issues to improve 
operations of the fleet.  These issues included housing, navigation 
support, citizenship of servicemen and their families, and others. 
MFA officials argued the Russian and Ukrainian presidents agreed to 
work on these issues when they signed the Russia-Ukraine Action Plan 
To 2009. 
 
3. (U) Lavrov and other GOR officials called Yushchenko's order 
premature and said it jeopardized trust between Russia and Ukraine. 
In press coverage, some GOR officials speculated that Ukraine's 
actions could endanger the ten-year Friendship and Cooperation 
Treaty between Russia and Ukraine, which came into force on April 1, 
1999.  On May 29 Medvedev called Yushchenko and stressed the 
importance of not taking unilateral decisions that run counter to 
previous treaty obligations. 
 
---------------------------- 
...Then Clarifies the Record 
---------------------------- 
 
4. (U) In an attempt to control the press speculation and clarify 
the MFA's May 21 statement, Ambassador at Large Vladimir Dorokhin in 
a press conference on May 29 pointed out the benefits the Black Sea 
Fleet brings to Sevastopol:  Russia pays about USD 98 million per 
year to rent the base, plus an additional USD 4 million in subsidies 
to the local government.  The base also provides about 25,000 jobs 
for local residents.  Dorokhin stressed that 20-year lease on the 
base at Sevastopol would be automatically renewed for another five 
years unless one side notified the other in writing.  This, 
according to Dorokhin, meant that the original agreement foresaw a 
"likely" further presence of the fleet in Ukraine.  He argued that 
it has never been a secret that the GOR would like to keep the Black 
Sea Fleet in Sevastopol for as long as possible. 
 
5. (U) Dorokhin acknowledged that, as a sovereign state, Ukraine had 
the right to conduct its own affairs, but argued that Russia should 
also have a voice in the matter.  He questioned the timing of 
Yushchenko's announcement, as well as the GOU's logic that it would 
take nine years for Russia to withdraw the Black Sea Fleet from 
Sevastopol.  He also said the GOR would not give up its interests in 
the Black Sea.  A recent opinion poll showed approximately 70 
percent of Russians support basing the Black Sea Fleet in 
Sevastopol. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
MOSCOW 00001568  002 OF 002 
 
 
GOR Links Black Sea Fleet Issue To Ukraine MAP 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6. (SBU) At the BRIC Ministerial on May 16, FM Lavrov linked the 
GOU's demands to have the Black Sea Fleet leave Sevastopol by 2017 
to a possible NATO MAP offer to Ukraine, arguing that Ukrainian 
authorities have been "whipping up emotions" as part of an effort to 
"artificially draw Ukraine into NATO."  Lavrov said the GOU was 
damaging Russia-Ukraine relations and acting against the will of the 
majority of Ukrainians.  He said this would have "destructive 
consequences," and Russia would do everything it could to prevent 
Ukrainian accession to NATO.  Other GOR officials have made similar 
statements, including Chair of the State Duma Committee on CIS 
Affairs Alexey Ostrovsky, who declared in April that Russia could 
reclaim Crimea if Ukraine was admitted to NATO.  Other GOR officials 
have speculated that Ukraine wants to conclude negotiations over the 
Black Sea Fleet early in order to make a NATO MAP offer easier to 
extend. 
 
7. (SBU) Russian experts tell us that the GOR remains concerned that 
Sevastopol could become a NATO base, despite provisions in Ukraine's 
constitution that prohibit foreign bases.  In the GOR's assessment, 
Ukrainian politics show that constitutions can be changed on a whim. 
 Some experts argue that the GOR would like to drag out negotiations 
over the Sevastopol base as long as possible in the hope that the 
next Ukrainian president might be more amenable to hosting the Black 
Sea Fleet on Ukrainian soil.  Experts maintain that the GOR does not 
want Sevastopol to become a central issue in its relationship with 
Ukraine, and so is in no hurry to commence negotiations on the 
fleet's withdrawal.  GOR officials reiterate that Russia would like 
to avoid the logistical and financial trouble of relocating the 
Black Sea Fleet to Novorossiysk (ref A). 
 
----------------------- 
WTO-Sevastopol Linkage? 
----------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Russian experts are concerned that Ukraine could use 
bilateral negotiations with Russia over WTO to introduce political 
linkage to Sevastopol.  Gaining wide press play in Russia was 
Supreme Rada member Andrey Paruby, of the pro-Yushchenko Our 
Ukraine-People's Self-Defense Bloc, statment that Ukraine can "block 
Russia's accession to the WTO until an agreement on the withdrawal 
of Russia's Black Sea Fleet from Ukraine is signed."  Ukraine was 
expected to participate in the Working Party multilateral 
negotiations and Russian trade negotiators have been prepared for a 
bilateral request. 
 
----------------- 
Luzhkov's Revenge 
----------------- 
 
9. (U) In retaliation for the GOU's May 12 announcement that Moscow 
Mayor Yuriy Luzhkov was no longer welcome in Ukraine following 
comments questioning Crimea's Ukrainian status (ref B), the Russian 
MFA announced on May 22 that it would impose entry restrictions on 
Ukrainian politicians who "damage the Russian Federation by action 
or word."  The MFA immediately banned Ukraine's First Deputy Prime 
Minister Evhen Kornichuk from entering Russia because of his 
suggestion that Putin should be declared persona non grata. 
"Considering what Evhen Kornichuk said in his public address, we 
assume that he will not be planning to visit the Russian 
Federation," said Andrey Nesterenko, a Foreign Ministry spokesman. 
 
10. (SBU) Domestically, Luzhkov has lashed out against the 
independent Nezavisimaya Gazeta for its critical coverage of his 
Sevastopol remarks, with Editor Konstantin Remchukov receiving a 
one-month eviction notice from the newspaper's city-owned premises. 
While Remchukov intends to fight the order, he noted that the 
Russian media have been muted in their analysis of Luzhkov's 
incendiary rhetoric, precisely because the mayor holds substantial 
levers with which to complicate their operations. 
 
RUSSELL