VZCZCXRO0225
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0529/01 1681040
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161040Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8126
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000529 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EFIN ECON CG RW
SUBJECT: MLC LEADERSHIP ON BEMBA AND MORE 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  In a long discussion June 3, leaders of Bemba's 
MLC ("Mouvement pour la Liberation du Congo") party told PolOff they 
are not planning further public demonstrations in Kinshasa following 
a canceled May 31 march in the capital.  The strongest displays of 
support for Bemba have occurred in his native Equateur province. 
The MLC is planning a Kinshasa petition drive and local television 
campaign to raise awareness regarding the circumstances of Bemba's 
arrest and demonstrate popular support for him.  The MLC position on 
legislation governing the opposition spokesman is rejected by other 
opposition parties.  The uncertain tenure of Prime Minister Gizenga 
is a top MLC concern, as is the rate of 2008 budget expenditure. 
According to MLC leadership, the mistrust between Kabila and Nkunda 
is symbolic of mistrust of Kabila across the DRC political 
landscape.  End summary. 
 
Reaction to Bemba arrest 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Leaders of Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC party discussed with 
Poloff reaction to Bemba's May 24 arrest, as well as party position 
on legislation governing the opposition, current economic and 
political issues, and eastern Congo peace processes, three days 
after its leadership canceled a May 31 march in support of Bemba in 
Kinshasa. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Executive Secretary Thomas Luhaka and National Secretary 
Jean-Lucien Bussa, both National Assembly deputies, said June 3 at 
MLC headquarters the party is emphasizing that any public displays 
of support for Bemba that it organizes must be responsible and 
orderly.  They said the party canceled a planned May 31 
demonstration after Kinshasa provincial authorities offered 
insufficient security guarantees for participants.  Luhaka said the 
party has no immediate plans for subsequent demonstrations. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Although organized public displays of support for Bemba 
have been limited in Kinshasa, there has been greater protest 
activity in Bemba's home province of Equateur.  A MONUC-Mbandaka 
political affairs officer told us June 4 Bemba supporters had thrown 
rocks at MONUC vehicles in Mbandaka and at a Belgian-owned property 
in Gemena May 26.  Governor Jose Makila, Congo's only MLC governor, 
suspended public demonstrations following the incidents, but lifted 
the ban June 2 after meeting with MLC provincial deputies. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The MLC planned to launch a petition drive in Kinshasa 
protesting Bemba's arrest and calling for his release by Belgian 
authorities.  It estimates it will obtain one million signatures. 
It is also considering a television campaign to publicize their 
suspicions regarding the arrest.  Luhaka expressed suspicion about 
the timing and role of Belgian intelligence services in the arrest. 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The priority of party leadership is to demonstrate unified 
support for Bemba.  It will follow party rules in the event Bemba 
can no longer serve.  Secretary General Francois Mwamba, who heads 
the MLC caucus in the National Assembly, will act as MLC president 
for an unspecified time.  Luhaka emphasized that MLC leadership will 
protect the integrity of the party and discourage outbreaks of 
violence.  (Note:  Independent Senator Francois Kaniki, a former MLC 
member, told us June 4 that party loyalists consider Bemba their 
only leader and will not accept plans to replace him in the short or 
medium term.  End note.) 
 
Divergent views on opposition Spokesman 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) MLC leaders articulated the primary differences among 
opposition parties on legislation currently before the National 
Assembly on the status of its official Spokesman.  The MLC rejects 
rotation of the position among opposition parties.  It maintains 
Bemba received the second-highest number of votes in the 
presidential election and should be the sole official voice of the 
opposition throughout his term of office. 
 
Political and economic concerns 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Luhaka claimed current uncertainty over the tenure of 
Prime Minister Gizenga impedes the political process.  He also 
charged there was a wave of arrests of FARDC officers from Equateur 
in the days following the Bemba arrest.  He stated that 60-80 per 
cent of police commanders are Swahili speakers loyal to Kabila and 
thus incapable of impartially enforcing the law. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The MLC is concerned that the 2008 budget is rapidly being 
spent while food prices escalate.  Luhaka claimed 70 per cent of the 
budget had been consumed as of June, blaming corruption and a 
 
KINSHASA 00000529  002 OF 002 
 
 
dysfunctional tax system.  (Note:  This may refer to 70 per cent of 
the GDRC-funded portion of the budget, i.e. $2.4 billion out of a 
total of $3.4 billion.  This amount is not to exceed half of the 
total projected budget for the year.  According to the IMF, GDRC 
spending has not exceeded revenues, at least on a monthly basis, 
since slight deficits recorded in January and February 2008.  End 
note.) 
 
Nkunda, Bemba, and FDLR 
----------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) CNDP president Laurent Nkunda sent a letter May 25 to the 
presidents of the National Assembly and Senate requesting their 
intervention to assist in the release of Bemba and in repairing 
Belgian-Congolese relations.  (Note:  Nkunda's letter was forwarded 
to AF/C.  End note.)  Luhaka made no reference to the letter, but 
criticized Nkunda's continued presence in North Kivu and charged 
that the CNDP is levying its own taxes on the population.  He 
characterized the level of personal mistrust between Kabila and 
Nkunda as emblematic of a general mistrust of Kabila by many 
Congolese politicians.  Luhaka, linking Nkunda's presence with 
foreign armed group activity, said there are three options for the 
FDLR in eastern DRC:  return to Rwanda, by force if necessary; 
disarm and settle in a third country; or disarm and remain in the 
DRC as refugees. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Comment:  Bemba's arrest has forced the MLC into a 
confrontation between those party members who would benefit from 
Bemba's removal from the political scene and others who, owing their 
election to him, believe he may return to power and thus will push 
for public displays of support.  It is not yet clear whether lack of 
spontaneous demonstrations in Kinshasa indicates successful 
intimidation by pro-Kabila forces, a lack of popular support for 
Bemba, or well-organized party discipline.  Kabila can only be 
enjoying his opponents' disarray.  End comment. 
 
GARVELINK