VZCZCXRO2340
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0904/01 1701328
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181328Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1084
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000904 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND 
CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SU
SUBJECT: ABYEI ROADMAP IMPLENTATION: JIU DEPLOYS, INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY DISCUSSES SUPPORT 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 899 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Elements of the new Joint Integrated Unit were 
deploying to Abyei on June 18, as both the SAF and SPLA are 
concentrating their regular forces outside the region to be part of 
the new unit.  The SAF reportedly tried in the June 12 JDB meeting 
to walk back the timeline agreed to by the NCP on withdrawing forces 
from the region.  U.S. and European Chiefs of Mission agreed in a 
June 17 meeting on the need to jointly press the two sides to meet 
the Roadmap deadlines get the agreement's basic building blocks in 
place.  End Summary. 
 
New Abyei JIU Deploys 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2.  (SBU)  The Abyei Roadmap decrees that a new Joint Integrated 
Unit (JIU) battalion will deploy within ten days, i.e., June 18. 
During the May outbreak, the SAF and SPLA components of the previous 
Abyei JIU fought each other and that unit was hopelessly 
compromised.  According to the UN Deputy Regional Coordinator for 
Abyei, the SPLA troops designated for the new Abyei JIU flew from 
Juba to Wau on June 17 and are traveling overland to Abyei as of 
June 18, according to SPLM contacts.  The SAF contingent reportedly 
arrived in Muglad from Khartoum on June 15.  The date of their 
arrival in Abyei is unknown, though given the relative proximity of 
Muglad to Abyei, the SAF contingent should be ready for deployment. 
 
 
While the Two Sides Concentrate Over the Horizon 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶3. (SBU) Both the SPLA and the SAF reportedly continue to 
concentrate troops on either side of the 1956 border.  Two SPLA 
divisions are reported to have moved South and Southwest of Abyei 
town, one of which is believed to be north of the 1956 line.  UNMIS 
confirms SAF continues to be build-up within Southern Kordofan 
state. 
 
Stormy June 12 JDB Meeting 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶4.  (SBU)  SPLA sources said that the SAF tried to walk-back the 
portions of Roadmap dealing with withdrawal of regular SAF (this 
would include the notorious 31st SAF Brigade in the hear of Abyei 
town) and SPLA units from the area at the June 12 Joint Defense 
Board (JDB) meeting that was to approve plans to deploy a new Joint 
Integrated Unit (JIU) to Abyei.  SPLA Chief of General Staff Ajak 
reported that that the SAF JDB representatives resisted the timeline 
for redeploying , "trying to renegotiate the agreement just signed 
by their political leadership," but that they ultimately relented. 
 
 
In Juba, Kiir Takes Charge of Abyei 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5.  (SBU) SPLM sources tell ConGen Juba that President Kiir has 
personally taken charge of Abyei-related issues in Juba.  Although 
Kiir initially resisted demands for a robust SPLA intervention 
during the May fighting, his patience now appears to have worn thin. 
 He reportedly told a June 14 meeting of the South Sudan Defense 
Committee that he would "reconsider" the June 8 Roadmap agreement if 
the SAF 31st Brigade has not left Juba town by July 1. 
 
International Community Confers on Roadmap 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶6.  (SBU) On June 17 in Khartoum, the EU Mission convened a meeting 
of the EU-Member States, the U.S., and Norway to compare notes on 
the Abyei Roadmap and coordinate the International Community's 
support of its implementation.  CDA Fernandez emphasized the need to 
focus on getting the Roadmap's basic building blocks - JIU 
deployment, UNMIS patrols, the interim administration - right. 
Without these elements in place, the agreement will unravel and 
never reach the point where arbitration of the boundary dispute can 
actually take place.  The CDA reviewed his June 16 meeting with 
UNSYG Special Representative Ashraf Qazi (reftel), noting that Qazi 
said that local SAF commanders still are prohibiting UNMIS patrols, 
on the grounds that they required clarification from Khartoum, and 
Qazi's complaint that UNMIS is excluded from Joint Defense Board 
Meetings, especially those that discuss the JIUs.  The CDA 
highlighted the need for the international community to press the 
GoS on both these issues.  He also flagged Qazi's claim that land 
mines were laid in the Abyei region during the recent fighting. 
Qazi feared that mines laid by the SPLA in defense of their 
positions could pose a particular threat to IDPs returning to their 
homes from the south, to which the majority fled. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Other participants seconded the CDA's comments.   Dutch 
Ambassador Johan Wolfe said his embassy has been in contact with 
UNMIS on providing support and training to the new JIU and to 
 
KHARTOUM 00000904  002 OF 002 
 
 
police.  He added that a Dutch arbitration advisor is coming to 
Sudan to brief both sides on arbitral procedures, traveling to Juba 
first and then to Khartoum. AEC Coordinator Derek Plumbly noted that 
the two sides have now resolved the thorniest issue, sharing of oil 
revenues, and he hoped this is a cause for optimism.  He urged that 
the international partners press the parties to quickly resolve some 
key immediate "pressure points:" mutual withdrawal of forces, 
freedom for NGOs to return, and the return of IDPs. 
 
Reservations About Arbitration 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶8.  (SBU) The Norwegian representative noted his embassy's 
reservations about arbitration of the boundary dispute.  He said 
that arbitration should be a last resort if two sides cannot 
negotiate a mutually acceptable agreement.  Arbitration ultimately 
will result in a winner and a loser.  The side which believes it 
lost may reject the decision, resulting in further conflict and risk 
to the CPA.  CDA Fernandez added that the Roadmap does not specify a 
role for the ethnic Misseriya - ie. are they "residents" of Abyei or 
nomads? - leaving them in a position to play a spoiler role, abetted 
by NCP hardliners.  AEC Coordinator Plumbly suggested that a 
workshop on arbitration be organized for both the SPLM and the NCP, 
to ensure that both sides would hear the same message. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The next few days are critical for the implementation of 
the Abyei agreement - a true test of whether the NCP is serious 
about resolving the Abyei dispute.  Vice President Taha plans to 
travel to Juba on June 20 to discuss the installation of the interim 
administration and the terms of the arbitration mechanism.  We will 
know by June 22 whether this agreement will hold and whether we may 
actually see some progress in Abyei and other areas of the CPA, or 
whether the CPA partners are likely to return to the status quo with 
an ever-increasing risk of a return to war.  Post is counseling both 
sides not to let this agreement fail. 
 
FERNANDEZ