VZCZCXRO9738
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0890/01 1671211
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151211Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1054
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000890 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/E WILLIAMSON, DRL 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM SOCI SU
SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ASSESS SUDAN'S CENSUS ENUMERATION 
AS POSITIVE DESPITE MANY GAPS 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 858 
¶B. KHARTOUM 697 
¶C. KHARTOUM 685 
¶D. KHARTOUM 608 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) The Monitoring and Observation Committee's (MOC's) 
international and domestic census enumeration observation team's 
preliminary findings indicate that enumeration went "well" across 
Sudan and the quality of data collected was "good."  Although the 
areas country-wide in which the nearly 60 observers were posted 
suffered few problems during enumeration, the areas they were unable 
to observe due to insecurity paint a much different picture.  Some 
residents in Darfur, particularly IDPs and rebels, and Southern 
Kordofan resisted the census.  Others went uncounted simply due to 
enumerators' inability to access their areas.  Access to some areas 
in the South also was difficult and insecurity was a problem in 
Upper Nile and Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal.  These regions 
suffered from incomplete or no data, with a resulting undercount. 
In addition, top SPLM officials complain that the census was not 
transparent and are withholding judgment on the quality and 
completeness of enumeration until official results are released (ref 
A).  End summary. 
 
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LACK OF NATION-WIDE COVERAGE BIASED FINDINGS 
------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (U) On 9 June, the DFID-funded team of census experts that 
planned the international and domestic mission to monitor the 
conduct of census enumeration presented its preliminary findings, 
based on 25 state and nine regional reports compiled by a 60-member 
international and domestic observation team that deployed across 
Sudan during the April 22 - 6 May census enumeration period.  While 
census monitors were present in all states, they did not travel to 
enumeration areas (EAs) that the UN deemed as insecure or unsafe. 
Therefore, their findings do not account for the conduct of 
enumeration in such sensitive and critical areas as large parts of 
Darfur, parts of Southern Kordofan, and regions of Upper Nile state 
and Northern and Western Bahr El Ghazal states.  According to the 
experts, these gaps in data collection lead to "slightly biased" 
findings on the nature of nation-wide census conduct. 
 
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ENUMERATION PROCESS, DATA QUALITY "GOOD" 
----------------------------------------- 
¶3. (U) Each observer looked at ten EAs - six rural and four urban - 
in their assigned state.  In the areas they monitored, observers 
witnessed 100 percent enumeration coverage.  Overall, they judged 
enumeration went well and that the quality of data was captured is 
"good."  EA maps were produced using satellite imagery and GPS 
technology.  According to monitors, population movements just prior 
to the census, such as IDPs and refugees returns to southern Sudan, 
created larger EAs and necessitated creation of new ones at the time 
of enumeration. 
 
¶4. (U) Observers reported that insecurity was a major cause of 
disruption to census enumeration and monitoring in parts of Darfur, 
Southern Kordofan, Greater Upper Nile, Northern and Western Bahr el 
Ghazal, and the Eastern region.  The team speculates that insecurity 
could have left these areas undercounted (ref B). 
 
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CENSUS ADVOCACY INADEQUATE 
--------------------------- 
¶5. (U) Monitors rated advocacy for the census as insufficient.  They 
noted that many Sudanese were unclear about the census date, due to 
the last-minute postponement of the census by one-week. 
Additionally, many believed that the enumeration exercise would last 
only one day, rather than two weeks.  Regardless of the weak 
information campaign and some confusion over timing, observers found 
the population was "generally positive" towards the enumeration 
exercise. 
 
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HUGE VARIATION IN CENSUS FACILITIES 
------------------------------------ 
¶6. (U) Observers noted great variation among state and county census 
offices across the country.  Overall, the team deemed census 
facilities "generally inadequate" and storage facilities for census 
material "grossly inadequate."  Police and military support to 
protect census and storage facilities was deemed "satisfactory." 
 
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DEMOGRAPHICS AND QUALITY OF ENUMERATORS 
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KHARTOUM 00000890  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶7. (U) The Central Bureau of Statistics' (CBS) and the Southern 
Sudan Census Commission's (SSCCSE) recruitment of enumerators was 
found to be "generally fair and consistent."  Observers judged 
enumerators and their supervisors as competent and "very well 
trained."  Sixty-one percent of enumerators were male, 39 percent 
female.  Their mean age was 30 years.  The majority of enumerators 
were teachers (60 percent) and students (14 percent). 
 
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AMELIORATION OF FORM SHORTAGE ISSUE 
------------------------------------ 
¶8. (U) At the state and local level in southern Sudan, 
transportation of material to certain EAs proved challenging. 
Observers noted that, except in some parts of Upper Nile state and 
Northern and Western Bahr El Ghazal states, materials generally 
arrived in time for the start of enumeration, despite the South's 
complicated terrain, weather, and logistics.  They also noted that 
prompt action was taken to secure more questionnaires when there 
were shortages. 
 
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MOC CHAIRMAN'S REACTION TO THE REPORT 
--------------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) MOC Chairman Abdelbagi Gailani stated that the team's 
findings were "scientific" and "well-convincing,", however he 
indicated that there will be a "modification here and there" to the 
final report.  He congratulated the international experts for their 
work.  He also announced that the MOC mahaliya-level monitors (ref 
C) will write a separate report of their observations of the 
enumeration phase. 
 
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POST-ENUMERATION PHASE MONITORING 
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¶10. (SBU) In a positive step, the MOC has agreed to allow four 
observers - two international and two domestic - to monitor data 
processing at the data processing centers in Khartoum and Rumbek. 
The MOC has written up a draft concept paper on post-enumeration 
phase monitoring and is allowing international donors to provide 
input.  The USG, UNFPA, and the World Bank have actively provided 
feedback on the concept paper which should be completed in the 
coming weeks.  According to the UNFPA Chief Technical Rep for the 
census Bob Kandeh, states still are transporting completed 
questionnaires to the two data processing centers.  Data scanning is 
unlikely to begin before mid-July.  In other encouraging news, CBS 
Director and Census Controller Dr. Yasin Abdeen set up a five-man 
committee to supervise data processing at the CBS and the SSCCSE as 
a single national project.  SSCCSE Chairman Isaiah Chol has accepted 
Abdeen's request that Chol chair the national committee.  This type 
of cooperation between the CBS and the SSCCSE is unprecedented and 
represents progress in initiating a unified approach to arriving at 
final nation-wide census results. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶11. (SBU) Although generally positive, the donor-funded 
international and national census enumeration monitoring team's 
findings do not tell the full story.  The monitors' inability to 
observe enumeration and data collection in sensitive and critical 
areas of Darfur, Southern Kordofan and the South leaves untold a 
story of undercounts, resistance to census participation, and the 
likelihood that the South will reject final census results even with 
"good" data quality (ref C).  Nonetheless, the MOC Chairman seemed 
pleased with the team's preliminary findings.  Although there had 
been wrangling over exactly who would write the final 
census-enumeration report, the MOC is unlikely to change much of the 
team's language, given the report's positive overall tone (ref D). 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED.  After months of pushing, the U.S., UK, 
EC, and the World Bank finally were victorious in getting the MOC to 
allow a team of international and national monitors observe the data 
input, processing, editing and merging phases.  In fact, although 
donors have been skeptical (and rightfully so) of the NCP-run MOC 
from the start, the body worked with the international community 
more amicably and closely, albeit sometimes grudgingly, as time went 
on.  The UN, the World Bank and the U.S. provided significant expert 
feedback to the MOC's concept paper for post-enumeration monitoring, 
which we hope will lead to recruiting of qualified data processors 
to act as monitors during the critical data input, editing, and 
analysis phases, when manipulation could occur.  Although the MOC 
has yet to draft a budget for the post-enumeration monitoring 
mission, it is likely that DFID will fund the effort (as we have 
hoped it would and worked to persuade it), given the UK's history of 
building confidence in and supporting the MOC and its mission. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000890  003 OF 003 
 
 
FERNANDEZ