VZCZCXRO4506
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0858 1611300
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091300Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0994
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000858 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/SPG, S/E WILLIAMSON, S/CRS, DRL 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM SOCI SU
SUBJECT:  LACK OF POLITICAL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO THREATEN 
ELECTORAL LAW 
 
REFS: A. KHARTOUM 455 
       ¶B. KHARTOUM 830 
 
¶1. (SBU) On 2 June, Deputy Secretary General of the SPLM for the 
Northern Sector Yasir Arman told poloff that the 2009 elections and 
the 2011 referendum on independence for south Sudan are the "end 
game" of the CPA.  "The elections are about the democratic 
transformation of Sudan," he said.  He made it clear, however, that 
strict media censorship and arbitrary arrests will undermine the 
ability of the SPLM and other parties to compete freely and fairly 
against the NCP and he emphasized the need to revise the media and 
national security laws before elections are held. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Arman was a member of the high-level three-person SPLM team 
that negotiated with the NCP on the text of the draft electoral law 
before the remaining differences were submitted for resolution to 
the Presidency in mid-March.  He confirmed that the two parties 
almost agreed to a 55 percent first-past-the-post/45 percent 
proportional voting scheme for candidates to the national and state 
assemblies (ref A).  The deal was never sealed, however, because 
they could not agree on what level (national or state) the 
proportional vote and the women's vote should be held.  The SPLM 
prefers proportional elections to take place at state level because, 
according to Arman, SPLM officials are better known at that level 
and ultimately members of Parliament should be responsible to their 
local constituencies. 
 
¶3. (SBU) There is a small gap to bridge in terms of NCP-SPLM 
differences on the draft law, said Arman.  He expressed concern that 
if the bill does not reach the Parliament the week of 15 June, it 
will not be ratified in the current session.  If the bill is 
submitted to the Parliament at the end of the session, the 
Presidency should use its authority to extend the current 
parliamentary session so that the bill can be adequately debated and 
ratified, he argued. [Note:  The current parliamentary session ends 
on 30 June.  The next session begins in October.  End note.] 
 
¶4. (SBU) If Parliament ratifies an electoral law lacking NCP-SPLM 
consensus, it will be "Kenya all over again," claimed Arman.  "The 
NCP wants to use its mechanical majority to push the law through," 
he said.  He warned that if a law lacking consensus is ratified, it 
will cast a shadow of doubt over the entire 2009 electoral process. 
Asked whether the SPLM would boycott elections if the NCP bulldozes 
the electoral law through Parliament, Arman said that any decision 
to boycott elections would depend on many factors, but did not rule 
a boycott out. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Poloff asked Arman his impression of the conduct of the 
census in southern Sudan.  Asserting that the process was not 
transparent, he said that until official results are released, it is 
difficult to tell.  According to Arman, 33 percent of Sudan's 
population lives in the South and if the census results indicate a 
lower figure, the SPLM will reject them and their use in determining 
a new power-sharing arrangement in the Government of National Unity 
elected in 2009. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT.  Arman's comments reflect the consensus SPLM 
suspicion that the NCP tried to manipulate the census, and the fear 
that the NCP will do the same with the elections.  There has been no 
movement on the draft electoral bill since mid-March and each day 
that the parties do not resolve the minor differences between them, 
the greater the chance that the NCP parliamentary majority will 
seize on it and push a bill through the system without SPLM-NCP 
agreement on the final remaining points (ref B).  If this occurs, 
there is no doubt that the electoral process will be off to a rocky 
start. 
 
DATTA