VZCZCXRO9632
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0830/01 1550821
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 030821Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0955
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000830 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, S/E WILLIAMSON, DRL 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESSES SUDANESE PRESIDENCY TO TABLE 
LONG-DELAYED ELECTIONS BILL 
 
REF:  (A) KHARTOUM 291 
       (B) KHARTOUM 455 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) On 28 May, the National Assembly adopted a resolution 
requesting that the Presidency table the long-delayed electoral 
bill.  The resolution could lead to one of two alternatives - either 
the Presidency will feel compelled to resolve the outstanding issues 
on the law itself or it will submit the disputed bill to Parliament 
for the Assembly's consideration.  The bill originally was sent to 
the Presidency to resolve differences between the NCP and SPLM on 
key provisions.  If the bill is submitted to the Parliament still 
without NCP-SPLM agreement, SPLM and other opposition parties fear 
that an NCP-version of the law will be passed by a simple NCP 
parliamentary majority.  Such an outcome will result in a heated and 
tumultuous start to Sudan's electoral process.  End Summary. 
 
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NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ANXIOUS TO DEBATE ELECTORAL BILL 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶2.  (U) In the first show of determination by politicians to move on 
the electoral bill, the National Assembly passed a resolution on 28 
May calling on the Presidency to table the bill.  The National 
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) had submitted the severely 
overdue bill to the Presidency in March 2008 to resolve the final 
three issues on which high-level NCP and SPLM officials could not 
agree (ref a).  Although the hope was that the Presidency could 
resolve these issues, it has not acted on the bill since receiving 
it. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) According to NCRC Co-Chair Abdulla Idris, the Sudan 
Consortium meeting in Oslo sparked party interest in the elections, 
hence the current movement in Parliament whereby various factions 
are "jockeying" for position to move the bill to parliamentary 
debate.  "You must read between the lines," Idris told Poloff on 29 
May.  Political parties want to hold elections on time; however the 
SPLM would like issues such as Abyei and border demarcation to be 
resolved first, he claimed.  Idris hinted that it is the NCP that is 
pushing the Presidency to table the elections bill. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Idris surmised that the Parliamentary resolution will 
result in one of two actions:  either the Presidency will resolve 
the three remaining issues under pressure from Parliament, or 
Parliament will "seize the draft bill and deliberate on it."  The 
SPLM and the Communist Party in particular fear that if the 
Presidency allows the Parliament to deliberate, the NCP will 
bulldoze its preferred draft through using its simple majority. 
Idris noted that such an action would be the start of a "rocky road" 
to next year's elections.  "At minimum, to hold a fair election 
there must be acceptance of the electoral law by major parties such 
as the NCP, the SPLM, and Umma," he said. 
 
¶5. (U) Idris warned that if the Presidency does not submit the draft 
bill to the Parliament by 15 June, an extraordinary session in July 
will have to be called to debate the bill.  Although the draft 
electoral law has been a long time in coming, Idris believes that 
the National Assembly's resolution will create a "new development" 
on the law in the coming ten days.  GNU Minister of Parliamentary 
Affairs, Joseph Ukel, publicly announced that the bill could be 
tabled at the Council of Ministers meeting in Khartoum the week of 1 
June. 
 
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NCP AND UMMA SEE EYE-TO-EYE ON ELECTORAL BILL 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶6. (U) On 20 May, NCP and the National Umma Party, headed by former 
Prime Minister Al Sadig Al-Madhi, signed the "National 
Reconciliation Agreement."  In it, the two parties agree on the 
final three points of the electoral law. According to Idris, Umma 
conceded to a 60 percent first-past-the-post/40 percent proportional 
voting system.  NCP agreed to list women candidates for national and 
state assemblies on a party list, rather than a stand-alone women's 
list.  Furthermore, NCP and Umma agreed that the proportional vote 
should take place at the national level using a national-level list, 
rather than at a state level using state-level lists.  Umma is only 
one of numerous parties that the NCP has been courting on its 
proposed version of the electoral bill.  Its highly publicized 
agreement with the Umma Party represents the NCP's first victory in 
co-opting an opposition party to accept its preferred electoral-law 
provisions. (Comment: The SPLM has indicated it will not accept a 
60/40 proportional voting system, although it would compromise on a 
55/45 level, and it wants proportional voting to be on a state 
rather than national level.  If the electoral law is pushed through 
Parliament at the 60/40 percent proportional voting at a national 
 
KHARTOUM 00000830  002 OF 002 
 
 
level over their objections, it is quite likely the SPLM would 
boycott the elections altogether.) 
 
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RAMPING UP TO DRAFT THE REFERENDUM BILL 
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¶7. (SBU) Last week, NCRC members met for the first time to discuss 
drafting the bills on the 2011 referendum on independence for Abyei 
and Southern Sudan.  Idris remarked that the body is "quietly 
collecting data" on case studies in order to draft the bill, noting 
that with the priority for movement on the electoral bill and 2009 
elections, now is not the right time to publicly launch a 
referendum-drafting campaign.  Idris added that important issues 
must be worked out before the bills are drafted, such as border 
demarcation and defining who is a Southerner. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶7. (SBU) The Parliamentary resolution requesting that the Presidency 
deliver movement on the electoral bill is the first sign that 
politicians are taking charge of the electoral process.  Many hoped 
that the Presidency would be able to resolve the final issues of the 
law expeditiously.  To the contrary, the Presidency paid little 
attention to the bill and two and a half months have been lost.  If 
the bill is tabled and ratified in the coming few weeks and a 
National Electoral Commission is named, seated, and funded at a 
rapid-fire pace soon thereafter, UNMIS officials predict it would be 
possible, although still challenging, to hold voter registration and 
publish voter lists during the 2009 dry season (January-March) and 
hold the first round of elections in December of that year. 
However, if the NCP and its allies steamroll through Parliament an 
election bill that is seriously opposed by the SPLM and its allies, 
the future of the elections will be in serious doubt. 
 
POWERS