VZCZCXRO2776
RR RUEHJS
DE RUEHJA #1192/01 1702358
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 182358Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9327
INFO RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 2208
RUEHJA/AMCONSUL MEDAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001192 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR CA/FPP, CA/EX, EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD ID
SUBJECT: Jakarta B1/B2 Visa Validation Study 
 
REF: 07 Jakarta 989 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: The Consular Section of US Embassy Jakarta recently 
conducted a visa applicant validation study.  The study covered 
B1/B2 visa issuances for the six-month period December 1, 2006, to 
May 31, 2007, and was based on a telephone survey followed by house 
visits and queries of the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) 
Arrival-Departure Information System (ADIS).  The overstay rate was 
6.8 percent.  The data showed a significant decrease in overstay 
rates in the latter half of the study period in comparison with the 
first half. The overstay rate approached the FY2007 target set in 
the 2010 Mission Strategic Plan and represents an improvement from 
last year's validation study results (Reftel). END SUMMARY. 
 
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Methodology 
----------- 
 
¶2. The study was restricted to B1/B2 issuances to Indonesian 
applicants; third country national (TCN) applicants were not 
included.  The sample was selected from issuances during the 
six-month period December 1, 2006, to May 31, 2007.  Thus, even if 
an individual had been issued at the end of May 2007, the individual 
should have returned to Indonesia before validations began in 
February 2008. 
 
¶3. There were 10,947 B1/B2 issuances for the period.  The selection 
was done in accordance with the instructions contained in the CA/FPP 
document "How to use the CCD reports and Excel Spreadsheet to 
generate random samples of visa applicants for use in a validation 
study". The number sampled (840 applicants) was based upon the FPP 
recommendation of a standard sample size of approximately 800 cases. 
This sample number provides a standard +/- 2.1 interval for an 
overstay rate of 10 percent as suggested by FPP. 
 
¶4. CCD reports and the DS-156 paper visa application records of the 
individuals randomly selected were pulled and reviewed by a Conoff. 
He organized teams of FSNs to make phone calls to the 840 
individuals. The phone survey left approximately 100 cases as 
"inconclusive".  For inconclusive applicants outside of Jakarta, 
Conoffs used the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) 
Arrival-Departure Information System (ADIS) to determine the status 
of the applicants.  Teams of Consular Officers and FSNs then began a 
house-to-house canvass of the 27 inconclusive cases located in 
 
Jakarta and the spr"u ding areas to determine the status of the 
indiviuals as either "returned", "never traveled" or "supected 
overstay." 
 
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Findings 
------- 
 
¶5. Table of findings: 
 
Confirmed Overstay:57 (6.8%) 
Confirmed Return: 598 (71%) 
Never Traeled: 185 (22%) 
 
Total: 840 (100%) 
 
¶6.  Breakdwn of Confirmed  Overstay 
 
Overstay Rate for Month of Visa Issuance: 
December 2006 - 11.7 percent (15 total) 
January 2007 -- 7.8 percent (13 total) 
February 2007 - 11.7 percent (17 total) 
March 2007 -- 5.0 percent (7 total) 
April 2007 -- 3.0 percent (4 total) 
May 2007 -- 0.8 percent (1 total) 
 
Gender: 
67 percent female (38 total, 14 unmarried, 19 married including 2 
newlyweds, 5 minors) 
 
33 percent male (19 total, 2 unmarried, 12 married, 5 minors) 
 
Age: 
19 percent under 20 years old (10 total, all single/minors, 5 boys/5 
girls) 
 
17 percent 20 - 30 years old (11 total - 9 female/2 male, 7 
unmarried, 4 married including 2 newlyweds) 
 
41 percent 30 - 50 years old (24 total - 15 female/ 9 male, 5 
unmarried, 19 married) 
 
22 percent over 50 years old (12 total- 9 female/3 male, 4 unmarried 
including 3 widows, 8 married) 
 
 
JAKARTA 00001192  002 OF 002 
 
 
Characteristics: 
89 percent had no prior US travel (51 total) 
98 percent were issued full validity visas (56 total) 
11 percent had prior visa refusals (6 total) 
 
-------- 
Analysis 
-------- 
 
¶7. The data shows a trend of reduced overstays in the latter half of 
the study (March - May) after targeted training and structured 
guidance to adjudicating officers. For the full study period, two in 
three overstays excluding minors were married according to the 
DS-156.  Also two in three overstays were women. (Note: The sample 
pool was evenly divided 50 percent male/ 50 percent female.)  The 
breakdown of the genders of the overstays highlights an area for 
increased consideration.  Young male applicants in Indonesia are 
subject to intense scrutiny - it appears female applicants may not 
be subject to enough scrutiny. 
 
¶8. The proportion of individuals (one in five) who have never 
traveled, though lower than in last year's study (1 in 3) (Reftel) 
raises issues about intent.  Most visa applicants in Jakarta state 
that they want to travel within one month of the interview.  The 
individuals who never traveled may see having a valid US visa as a 
kind of insurance policy on political and economic instability or 
could be applicants whose plans changed. Alternatively, those who 
have never traveled may have been malafide applicants and are still 
waiting for the right time to begin a new life (as an overstay) in 
the US. 
 
¶9.  Outright fraud was suspected in 16 of the 57 confirmed overstays 
after attempting phone calls, examining the paper DS-156 and 
visiting the (often alleged) residence of the individual. 
Interestingly, the 27 individuals who were canvassed house-to-house 
came from all types of neighborhoods and socio-economic and ethnic 
backgrounds; they were not predominately from individuals usually 
deemed as higher risk applicants.  The B visa adjusted refusal rate 
for Indonesians during the study period is 44 percent, higher than 
the FY2006 adjusted refusal rate of 35 percent (Reftel). 
 
---------- 
Conclusion 
---------- 
 
¶10.  The current visa validation study for B1/B2 visa issuances 
revealed a 25 percent reduction in the overstay rate over the 
similar 2007 study for Embassy Jakarta -- 9.1 percent overstay rate 
last year and 6.8 percent this year (Reftel).  During the second 
half of the 2008 study the overstay rate decreased significantly 
after adjudicating standards were tightened.  Post recognizes that a 
telephone survey has weaknesses, but efforts were made to speak 
directly to the applicant.  The survey also only detects that an 
individual is back in Indonesia when the study occurs - he or she 
may have indeed worked illegally or violated the period of stay 
granted by DHS.  Post access to ADIS proved an invaluable resource 
in determining the travel history of applicants.  ADIS helped 
resolve inconclusive cases and confirm overstays.   Post 
acknowledges that even ADIS is not completely accurate, but coupled 
with other information, the resource helped confirm or disprove 
suspicions in many cases. 
 
¶11.  Consular management has discussed the findings with the 
adjudicating consular officers.  Married applicants and female 
applicants are areas for renewed focus.  The Consul General views 
the 7 percent overstay rate as a significant improvement from last 
year's results and an affirmation of the current adjudicating 
standards and emphasis on fraud prevention programs. The overstay 
rate from the study approached the target in the 2010 MSP of 6 
percent for 2008.  In particular, the overstay rate for the last 3 
months of the study was an average of 2.9 percent, well within the 
MSP target. 
 
HUME