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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000308 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: CODEL TANNER ISTANBUL MEETINGS 
 
REF: ANKARA 996 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Ten members of the U.S House Delegation to 
the NATO Parliamentary Assembly headed by Congressman John 
Tanner met in Istanbul on May 28 with public intellectuals 
and civil society to discuss the economic and political 
challenges facing Turkey.  Their interlocutors acknowledged 
that the AKP closure case is the primary source of political 
instability in Turkey today, yet downplayed the effect of the 
pending AKP closure case on the economy.  The briefings 
covered domestic politics and economics as well as Turkey's 
relations with the United States and the European Union and 
Turkish initiatives towards neighbors including Russia, Iran, 
Syria, Israel and Lebanon. 
 
 
YASED 
--------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Tahir Uysal, head of the International Investors 
Association (YASED), explained YASED's take on GOT reform 
policies to CODEL Tanner members and staff.  Uysal cited the 
informal economy, high taxes, and a flawed incentive system 
as areas that must be dealt with in the short to medium term 
to foster growth and investment.  He noted the need to both 
enact good laws and then to implement them citing 
intellectual property rights legislation and the recently 
passed R&D law as two examples that YASED is following 
closely.  Education reform, particularly to vocational 
education, would be necessary for Turkey to produce the 
skilled workers needed to attract greenfield investment, he 
argued. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Uysal underscored the importance of the EU accession 
process as an anchor for market-based economic reform.  In 
response to a query about the primary obstacles to EU 
accession, Uysal focused on the GOT approach to negotiations, 
explaining that YASED had criticized the decision to dual hat 
FM Babacan as chief EU negotiator.  He claimed that support 
for the EU goal was not wholehearted and that "indecisiveness 
at all levels" hampered forward motion.  He discounted the 
argument that Turkey, as a majority Muslim country, was not 
acceptable to the EU noting that current EU members are 
apprehensive about Turkish membership for a variety of 
reasons including Turkey large population (over 70 million) 
and the possible impact of Turkey's large, inefficient 
agricultural sector on EU agricultural policy. 
 
Soli Ozel 
--------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Newspaper columnist and university professor Soli 
Ozel discussed the intersection of politics on the economy 
noting that while the group was meeting in Istanbul, PM 
Erdogan was in Diyarbakir outlining his government's 
development goals in the disadvantaged South East (reftel). 
Ozel cautioned that PM Erdogan is in a precarious position 
due to the pending AKP closure case, but argued that unless 
the closure case causes "total havoc" the economy was 
unlikely to be significantly affected by on-going political 
instability.  Ozel ascribed the closure case to a reaction by 
the existing military/judicial/bureaucratic power structure 
to a re-distribution of power away from traditional power 
centers.  In response to a query about the U.S. role in the 
on-going debate on the closure case Ozel acknowledged that 
the U.S. was in a difficult position.  He argued that success 
or failure in Turkey would resonate throughout the region and 
for this reason the U.S. cannot ignore domestic political 
tensions in Turkey.  The U.S. must retain its credentials as 
a supporter of democratic forces, he argued, but added that 
neither the EU nor the U.S. had more than a marginal 
influence at this point.  Ozel, however, emphasized to CODEL 
Tanner that "behind the scenes" dialog is a useful tool to 
convey U.S. concerns to Turkish officials. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ozel outlined several foreign policy areas where 
Turkey is taking a more active role including Lebanon, 
Turkish-brokered negotiations between Syria and Israel and 
the growing economic importance of Turkey in Kurdish areas in 
both Northern Iraq and Syria.  He explained Turkey's 
relations with Iran and Russia were particularly sensitive. 
In the case of Russia, Turkey sees significant commercial 
opportunities in Russia and appreciates Russia's welcoming 
attitude towards Turkish businessmen all the while remaining 
concerned about energy dependence and sympathetic to Georgia. 
 Turks with experience living and working in Russia view 
Russian positively because Turkish businessmen in Russia are 
treated with respect, a situation that is not always repeated 
in Europe, Ozel noted.   Turkey's views toward Iran are 
 
ISTANBUL 00000308  002 OF 002 
 
 
similarly conflicted -- "no one wants a nuclear Iran" and 
Turkey views itself as a counterweight to Iranian influence 
in Lebanon.  At the same time Iran is a neighbor and a 
potential source of energy that could balance Russian 
domination of energy supply. 
 
Milliyet - Sedat Ergin and Sami Kohen 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Milliyet editor in chief Sedat Ergin described in 
some detail the pending AKP closure case, describing it as 
the primary source of instability in Turkey today.  He noted 
the irony that although closing a political party appears by 
definition undemocratic it is in fact a constitutionally 
acceptable option in Turkey.  Ergin criticized the AKP for 
failing to address the misgivings of those who view 
secularism as under threat from a party with undeniable roots 
in political Islam. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Milliyet senior columnist Sami Kohen described 
Turkey's three most important foreign policy priorities - 
relations with the United States, relations with the EU and 
multidimensional diplomacy.  Kohen noted despite the damage 
done by differences over Iraq, the United States has a 
special priority in Turkish foreign policy.  In many areas - 
the war on terror, energy policy, the Balkans and Afghanistan 
- Turkey and the U.S. share similar goals.  Turkey's European 
focus dates back to the late Ottoman/early Republican period 
and was formalized in 1963 when the GOT applied to join the 
European Economic Community.  Kohen argued that the general 
population has a European mindset and European identity and 
thus will not easily abandon the quest for EU membership. 
Multidimensional diplomacy describes Turkey's move away from 
a bi-polar Cold War mentality to one that focuses on Turkey's 
immediate neighbors and surrounding regions, according to 
Kohen.  This new focus is governed by a policy of having 
"zero problems with neighbors" and has prompted Turkish 
efforts to play the role of honest broker in conflicts 
between neighboring countries. 
 
WIENER