VZCZCXRO2505
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0368/01 1701549
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181549Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9277
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES  IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000368 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: IRISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS IRELAND'S FUTURE LIES WITH 
EUROPE 
 
REF: DUBLIN 363 AND PREVIOUS 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  Following the June 12 'No' vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Prime 
Minister (Taoiseach) Cowen addressed the Dail (Lower house of 
Parliament) on June 18, saying that the Government accepted the 
verdict of the people.  Nonetheless, Cowen noted that Ireland's 
place in the international arena had been realized through its 
membership in the EU and that the Irish people have been largely 
comfortable with the EU's overall direction.  He declared that it 
will take time to fully understand the significance of the 
referendum, and that he did not think there was a clear or obvious 
set of conclusions that could immediately be drawn.  On June 19, 
Cowen will travel to Brussels where he will attend the European 
Council with the Heads of Government of other EU member states.  His 
message to the Council will be clear and unambiguous: "My view 
remains that Ireland's future is bound with Europe's."  End 
summary. 
 
-------------------- 
The Taoiseach Speaks 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  Following the surprising defeat in Ireland of the Lisbon Treaty 
in a referendum on June 12, Taoiseach Brian Cowen spoke to the Dail 
on June 18 during a specially convened session to debate the 
referendum result.  He warned that Ireland faced a period of 
uncertainty in the wake of the 'No' vote, and announced that he 
would not be calling on other EU states to scrap their ratification 
of the Treaty, saying that each country which has not yet ratified 
the Treaty should be allowed to do so.  He declared that he did not 
believe the result constituted a rejection of Europe or of the need 
to change how the EU works.  Nonetheless, he said the Government 
fully accepted the verdict of the people and that the "will of the 
people was sovereign in our democracy."  He acknowledged that it was 
now up to the Government to "manage the political situation that has 
developed, both at home and internationally." 
 
¶3.  In his assessment of the referendum result, Cowen insisted it 
was too early to understand fully the significance of the 
referendum.  He said the debate on the Treaty saw many disparate 
views - and in some cases contradictory positions - put forward by 
those advocating a rejection of the Treaty, which made it 
"particularly difficult to analyze the key messages underlying the 
outcome of the referendum." 
 
¶4.  Cowen went on to say that Ireland's place in the international 
arena had been realized through its membership of the EU over the 
past 35 years, and that throughout that time, the people of Ireland 
had been largely comfortable with the overall direction of the EU as 
it responded to regional and international priorities and 
developments.  He disparaged the view that it would be possible for 
Ireland to exist entirely according to its own rules, yet shape the 
world around it, declaring that this was not the Government's view. 
 
 
¶5.  Cowen welcomed the "initial message of solidarity that was 
apparent at the meeting of the General Affairs and External 
Relations Council [meeting] yesterday," (reftel) and said he would 
reiterate this at the European Council meeting on June 19.  He 
emphasized, "I also will take the opportunity to restate to the 
Council my views that the vote does not mean Ireland is turning away 
from the EU or that it implies a desire to stand aside from 
engagement with our EU partners." 
 
------------------------------------ 
More on What Went Wrong for the Yeas 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  During Cowen's speech to the Dail, he identified certain factors 
he felt buttressed the 'No' vote.  The format of the Treaty, he 
said, became a major frustration for the electorate, because it was 
difficult to understand.  He also noted the unease expressed that 
for five out of every fifteen years there would not be an Irish EU 
Commissioner.  He stated that arguments were repeatedly advanced 
about a threat to Ireland's right to maintain its own tax system and 
tax rates, even though the Lisbon Treaty provided for a continuation 
of the legal arrangements that currently apply under existing 
Treaties. 
 
¶7.  Cowen remarked that many people were reportedly uneasy about a 
perceived risk that Europe would develop a common defense policy, 
requiring Ireland to abandon its military neutrality.  This was 
compounded, he said, by concern that, at some hypothetical future 
date, this provision could give rise to a European army and an 
attempt to project European interests by military force, to which 
Ireland would be obliged to contribute - contrary to Ireland's 
traditions. 
 
 
DUBLIN 00000368  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶8.  Concerns were expressed regarding abortion, he stated, despite 
the specific assurances in terms of Ireland's legal arrangements in 
this regard.  Concerns also arose, he said, about the possibility of 
a legal regime that would require the commercialization of public 
services, and introduce requirements to convert what have been 
regarded as essential public services into market opportunities. 
 
¶9.  Cowen noted the deep unease within the Irish farming community 
regarding the current strategy being adopted in negotiations at the 
World Trade Organization as a factor in the referendum's defeat.  He 
identified other, more generalized anxieties, such as the current 
tightening internationally of economic conditions and the associated 
rising unemployment and inflation figures. 
 
¶10.  He declared that the core message - the need of the EU to 
function more efficiently, more democratically and more effectively 
in the international arena - did not sufficiently register with the 
public.  In contrast, he mused, many voters seemed more comfortable 
citing examples where they felt the EU was not sufficiently in touch 
with concerns and needs of people at local level. 
 
------------------------ 
Opposition Leaders Speak 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny stated in the Dail on June 18 that 
several of the 'No' campaign slogans were based on lies or 
distortions and were repeatedly advanced despite being discredited 
by independent sources.  "This was done with the clear intent to 
confuse people and create doubts in their minds," Kenny said. 
Nonetheless, he alleged that the Government's long delay in setting 
a date for the referendum created a vacuum in which false 
information was disseminated. 
 
¶12.  Labour leader Eamon Gilmore acknowledged that the Treaty was 
not an easy document to communicate.  "The absence of a unified 
theme, that could be related to the everyday lives of our people, 
meant that from day one, we were explaining.  And in politics, when 
you're explaining, you're losing," he said. 
 
¶13.  Sinn Fein's Dail leader Caoimhghin O Caolain, however, declared 
that the vote was a "positive assertion" by the Irish electorate of 
their power to decide vital national issues, saying, "It was a vote 
about what type of EU we want to be part of developing.  Will it be 
an EU of political elites and bureaucrats?  Or will it be a 
democratic Europe of the people?" 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14.  On June 19, the Taoiseach will travel to Brussels where he will 
outline the Irish Government's view of the referendum to the EU 
summit.  While there has been speculation that the EU Presidency 
might offer Ireland concessions or opt-outs from core EU policies if 
it would help the Government win a new referendum on the Lisbon 
Treaty, Cowen will not be going hat-in-hand.  Rather, as he told the 
Dail in his remarkable speech, he will tell the Council, "My view 
remains that Ireland's future is bound with Europe's." 
 
FAUCHER