VZCZCXRO8956
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0356/01 1651613
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 131613Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9262
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES  IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000356 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND SOUNDLY REJECTS LISBON TREATY IN SHOCK RESULT 
 
REF: DUBLIN 334 AND PREVIOUS 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) By a surprisingly large margin, Irish voters today rejected 
the EU Lisbon Treaty by 53.7 percent to 46.3 percent.  The final 
results were announced late in the afternoon.  The 'No' campaign won 
in 33 of 43 constituencies.  No single factor has emerged as 
decisive in the 'Yes' defeat.  However, the overriding early 
consensus is that the leaders of the nation dropped the ball.  They 
were not able to adequately explain a complex, hard-to-understand 
document, counter snazzy opposition sound-bites, or overcome 
complacency among those inclined to support the Treaty but who 
stayed home.  The challenge now for Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen 
- as he nervously awaits the EU reaction - is to provide a coherent 
explanation of the Irish rejection and begin to rebuild fences with 
the EU.  Cowen's first steps in the post-Lisbon environment will be 
to provide such explanations of the disappointing vote and his 
thoughts on a way forward at the June 19-20 European Council 
meeting.  End summary. 
 
---------------- 
The Poll Results 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Right from the earliest tallies the morning of the June 13 
count of the Lisbon treaty referendum vote, the 'Yes' side was in 
trouble.  POLOFFs who visited a counting station were told of ballot 
boxes containing few ballots and of decisive 'No' margins.  As early 
as an hour into the counting, the 'No' forces were declaring 
victory.  By noon, when POLOFF spoke with Government Chief Whip Pat 
Carey, Carry woefully said it was hard to see how the 'Yes' vote 
could win. 
 
¶3.  (U) The 'No' campaign won in 33 of the 43 constituencies across 
the nation, with significant majorities emerging from rural and 
urban working class areas.  Waterford was the first constituency to 
announce official results, where the treaty was rejected by 54 
percent to 46 percent.  The news did not improve for the 'Yes' 
campaign.  Kildare, Dublin South East, and Laois/Offaly (Prime 
Minister Brian Cowen's constituency) were among the few 
constituencies favoring the Treaty. 
 
---- 
Why? 
---- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Reasons abound why the 'Yes' campaign failed.  In a poll 
published by the Irish Times on June 6, 30 percent of voters said 
they did not understand what the treaty was about.  Other reasons 
cited for voting against the Treaty that seemed to have grabbed the 
attention of the voters were: a wish to keep Ireland's power and 
identity (24 percent), fears that Ireland's traditional neutrality 
might be jeopardized (22 percent), a fear that Irish farmers would 
suffer from ongoing WTO talks (11 percent), and safeguarding the low 
Irish corporate tax rate (5 percent). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Political analysts told POLOFF that the reasons for the 
failure of the 'Yes' campaign - largely run by the political parties 
- was that it started too late (never overcoming the initial 
momentum of the 'No' campaign) and that the Government failed to 
explain the Treaty properly.  Some say that the 'Yes' campaign 
seemed to be mostly on the defensive, rather than touting the merits 
of the Treaty to the electorate.  There is no evidence the 
Government suffered from a backlash on domestic issues, as was 
feared before the resignation of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern last 
month. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Not all the 'No' supporters are gloating.  POLOFF spoke 
with a senior Sinn Fein officer, who mused that the victory could 
set Sinn Fein up as the Government's scapegoat every time something 
goes wrong that could be linked to relations with the EU. 
 
¶7.  (U) Early in the afternoon, Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheal 
Martin blamed a perceived lack of information for the failure of the 
'Yes' vote to prevail. 
Martin, director of Fianna Fail's referendum campaign, said that 
people just didn't know enough about the Treaty.  He said there was 
a sense that the treaty "just didn't register" and "lacked a clear 
tangible."  He added there was a "general sense of giving away too 
much power."  Later the same day, Minister of Justice Dermot Ahern 
stated, "It looks like this will be a 'no' vote.  At the end of the 
day, for a myriad of reasons, the people have spoken." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The margin of the 'No' vote was surprising high given that 
most of the political parties, trade unions, employers' 
 
DUBLIN 00000356  002 OF 002 
 
 
organizations, and farmers' associations endorsed it.  However, no 
single factor has emerged as decisive in the 'Yes' defeat.  The 
relatively high (for a referendum) voter turnout didn't help the 
'Yes' side as predicted, highlighting the depth of 'No' support and 
revealing Ireland's political elite as out of touch with the 
electorate.  (The political elites here have repeatedly touted a 
high voter turnout as all that was needed for a 'Yes' victory.)  The 
overriding early consensus is that the leaders of the nation dropped 
the ball.  Their effort was too little, too late; they failed.  The 
challenge now for Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen - as he nervously 
awaits the EU reaction - is to provide a coherent explanation of the 
Irish rejection and begin to rebuild fences with the EU.  His next 
major foray into the post-Lisbon environment will be when he faces 
his EU counterparts at the June 19-20 European Council meeting.  Due 
to the high voter turnout, Cowen's options appear to be more limited 
than when the Irish electorate, in a relatively low voter turnout, 
rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001. 
 
FOLEY