VZCZCXRO4673 
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV 
DE RUEHDL #0334/01 1611644 
ZNR UUUUU ZZH 
R 091644Z JUN 08 
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN 
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9242 
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000334 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: LISBON TREATY POLLS SEND MIXED MESSAGES, BUT EDGE STILL 
LIES WITH THE YEAS 
 
REF: (A) DUBLIN 324 (B) DUBLIN 310 (C) DUBLIN 282 AND PREVIOUS 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (SBU) The 'Yes' side in the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign, 
scheduled for June 12, still appears to have an edge, despite gains 
by the 'No' side in recent polls. Political party leaders remain 
quietly confident that the 'Yes' vote will gather momentum in the 
final days of the campaign. Voter turnout continues to be regarded 
as the single most crucial factor on referendum day. We continue to 
agree with political analysts who say that when the time comes to 
cast their votes, the majority of Irish voters will opt for the 
advantages of continued close ties to Europe. End summary. 
 
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The Polls 
--------- 
 
¶2. (U) According to the final tracking poll of the campaign, 
published on June 8 in the Irish Sunday Business Post, support for 
the Lisbon Treaty now lies at 42 percent among those entitled to 
vote, an increase of one point since the last Sunday Business Post 
poll published on May 25 (Ref C), while the 'No' vote totals 39 
percent, an increase of 6 points. However, among voters who say 
they are absolutely certain to vote, 'Yes' leads by 46 to 37 
percent, with 17 per cent still undecided. Polling analysts say 
that the increase in "No" votes is mostly among voters who are 
uncertain whether they will turn out. They note that support for 
the Treaty has increased markedly among Fine Gael and Labour Party 
members. 
 
¶3. (U) At odds with the Sunday Business Post poll, the Irish Times 
released a poll on June 6 that had 'Yes' at 30 percent (down 5 
points) and 'No' at 35 percent (up 17 points) since the last Irish 
Times poll three weeks previously. 
 
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The Campaign 
------------ 
 
¶4. (U) In response to the negative Irish Times poll, the leaders of 
the three main political parties held a joint press conference on 
June 9 calling on the voters to put aside party differences and 
unite to protect Ireland's position within the European Union by 
voting 'Yes in the Lisbon Treaty referendum. Taoiseach Brian Cowen 
was joined by opposition leaders Enda Kenny of Fine Gael and Eamon 
Gilmore of Labour. Calling on voters to do their "patriotic" duty, 
and stating, "There are issues where we stand together in the 
overall national interest and beyond partisan party politics," Cowen 
noted that the three parties represented 80 per cent of the 
electorate. Rejection of the Treaty, he said, would leave the 
European Union - and Ireland - facing an "uncertain future." He 
insisted that all of Ireland's concerns on issues such as taxation, 
neutrality, and workers rights were "copperfastened" in the Treaty. 
 
¶5. (U) Kenny said that he was standing shoulder-to-shoulder with 
Cowen and Gilmore to "send out a strong, coherent message" to voters 
that the Treaty was good for Ireland's future prosperity. He went 
on to decry what he called the "downright lies" being spread by 
anti-treaty campaigners, warning that claims that Ireland would face 
no consequences if it rejected Lisbon were "irresponsible and 
wrong." Gilmore urged his supporters to resist "taking a partisan 
view," and also criticized the "No" campaign positions, saying that 
none of their arguments "stood up to scrutiny." He went on to sound 
a note of warning, saying, "If the Treaty is rejected, we do not 
know what a different deal would yield for Ireland, or what our 
future in Europe would be." 
 
¶6. (SBU) Over the weekend, the party leaders were out in full 
force, campaigning heavily for the Treaty across the country. A 
contact in the EU Division of the Department of Foreign Affairs told 
POLOFF on June 9 that party leaders are not disheartened by the 
polls. Rather, she said, the leaders are quietly confident the 
'Yes' vote is gaining momentum. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The 'No' campaign has been heartened by the poll results, 
which have been attributed, in part, to a constant refrain from the 
'No' campaigners that a stronger EU will mean a weaker Ireland. The 
specters of EU taxation, conscription into an EU army, reduction of 
agricultural supports, and erosion of workers' rights have been 
effectively (if dishonestly according to 'Yes' leaders) portrayed by 
the 'No' campaign as the consequences of voting 'Yes.' There is 
also a view that some Irish are equating stronger links with the EU 
with stronger links to Ireland's former colonial ruler Great 
Britain, a connection that is anathema to some in Ireland. 
 
¶8. (U) Political analysts of all stripes continue to stress that 
voter turnout remains the single most crucial factor in the 
referendum. A high turnout is expected to produce a positive 
outcome, while a low turnout is likely to doom the Treaty. Both 
sides are redoubling their efforts to turn out their supporters. 
Appeals to remaining undecided voters are reaching a crescendo. 
 
¶9. (U) Though the referendum takes place on Thursday, June 12, 
under Irish law a media black-out goes into effect at midnight on 
Tuesday, June 10. There will be no press, radio, or television 
coverage of the referendum on Wednesday or on voting day. 
Nonetheless, individual campaigners are allowed to continue their 
efforts, right up until the closure of the polls at 10:00 PM the 
evening of June 12. Results of the vote will start to be known on 
Friday morning. 
 
¶10. (U) Meanwhile, islanders on five islands off the Donegal coast 
will be the first to cast their votes in the referendum, with 745 
people entitled to vote on June 9. Traditionally, the islanders 
have voted early in case bad weather delayed the ballot boxes from 
being brought back to the mainland by ship (notwithstanding the 
modern invention of helicopters). People living off the Mayo and 
Galway coasts will vote on June 11, while those on the Cork islands 
will vote with the rest of the county on June 12. 
 
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Comment 
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¶11. (SBU) Although the findings of the recent polls are somewhat 
ambiguous, it's fair to say that the 'No' campaign seems to have 
picked up steam - a sudden surge that is somewhat inexplicable to 
seasoned political observers. Nonetheless, analysts point out that 
the polls in the final days of the May 2007 General Election 
indicated that support for Fianna Fail had fallen to a dangerously 
low level. Nonetheless, Fianna Fail won the election handily. The 
poll results have energized both sides in the final days of the 
campaign as contenders fight for the only poll that really matters - 
the poll on referendum day. We continue to agree with political 
analysts who say that when the time comes to cast their votes, the 
majority of Irish voters will opt for the advantages of continued 
close ties to Europe. 
 
FOLEY