VZCZCXRO2255
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0324 1571528
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051528Z JUN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9231
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000324 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: LISBON TREATY 'YES' CAMPAIGN RECEIVES TIMELY BOOSTS 
 
REF: DUBLIN 310 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  Summary:  With just a week to go before the June 12 referendum 
on the Lisbon Treaty, the 'Yes' campaign has received a number of 
timely boosts.  Virtually all important political, employer, labor, 
and farmer organizations in Ireland have now recommended a 'Yes' 
vote.  While there will continue to be considerable rhetoric from 
the 'No' camp over the next few days, it's hard to see how the 
Lisbon Treaty referendum can now be defeated.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  On June 3, The Irish Farmers Association (IFA) announced they 
were urging their 85,000 members and their families to vote in favor 
of the treaty.  The decision of the IFA to call for a 'Yes' vote, 
according to IFA President Padraig Walshe, came after Taoiseach 
(Prime Minister) Brian Cowen gave a commitment that GOI would veto 
EU agreement to the current WTO talks if the deal does 
satisfactorily protect Irish interests in the agriculture sector. 
The IFA have said that without that commitment from Cowen, they 
would have recommended a 'No' vote.  (Note: Cowen subsequently 
declared that there has been no change in the Government's position, 
reiterating that the Government of Ireland will not sign on to a WTO 
deal that is unacceptable to Irish farmers.  End note.)  On June 1, 
the smaller farming organization the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers' 
Association (ICMSA) backed the Treaty after Cowen gave an assurance 
that the Government would not accept a WTO deal that was 
"unbalanced." 
 
¶3.  In a separate development on June 4, the Referendum Commission 
(an independent body with a mandate to explain the referendum 
proposals, promote public awareness of the referendum, and encourage 
the electorate to vote at the poll) clarified a number of aspects of 
the Lisbon Treaty, which it says have led to confusion among the 
public.  The Commission reiterated the Government's view that 
Ireland would retain a veto on any future WTO deal.  The Commission 
also clarified how qualified majority voting would work under the 
Treaty, areas in which the EU can act, and changes from unanimity to 
qualified majority voting.  It stated that the Treaty would not 
affect Ireland's constitutional position on abortion. 
 
¶4.  On June 4, in a show of unity, the three main political parties 
in the Irish Parliament came together in a joint press conference to 
emphasize the importance of a 'Yes' vote on the Lisbon Treaty. 
Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin (who heads the Fianna 
Fail campaign), Fine Gael campaign director and Dublin MEP Gay 
Mitchell, and Labour Party director of elections Joe Costello urged 
the electorate to vote in favor of the Treaty.  The political 
leaders committed their parties to a coordinated campaign effort in 
order to maximize their effectiveness and ensure the largest 
possible 'Yes' turnout on election day, June 12. 
 
¶5.  Comment:  All verdicts have been rendered, except that of the 
voters.  Virtually every important national political party, 
employers' group, labor union, and farmers' association has 
recommended a 'Yes' vote.  While there will continue to be 
considerable rhetoric from the 'No' camp over the next few days, 
it's hard to see how the Lisbon Treaty referendum can now be 
defeated. 
 
FAUCHER