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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000382 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S MJWILLS, SHILL 
ALSO AF/E FOR SHAMILTION, JLIDDLE 
ADDIS FOR AU MISSION 
LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM PGOV ZI TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA:  A SOMBER MINISTER MEMBE BRIEFS 
AMBASSADOR GREEN, THE PRESS ON SADC AND AFRICAN UNION 
CONCERNS ABOUT ZIMBABWE 
 
REF: A. STATE 064233 
     ¶B. DAR ES SALAAM 0368 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1. (SBU) A subdued Foreign Minister Bernard Membe told 
Ambassador Green in a June 18 phone call and journalists on 
June 19 that the SADC foreign ministers who met in Malawi 
June 17-18 were "shocked" by the level of violence that 
observers in Zimbabwe are relaying to the SADC Secretariat. 
Membe said the military and youth militia are the primary 
perpetrators.  He told the press that SADC observers had 
witnessed Zimbabwe citizens being murdered by military or 
militia: "In one incident, observers saw two people shot to 
death before their eyes" with no apparent concern that the 
observers were watching. (Full text Press Statement, Para 
12).  Minister Membe said SADC is seriously concerned that 1) 
opposition leaders are being jailed, detained and harassed, 
thus unable to campaign; 2) both Robert Mugabe and the 
opposition MDC have stated publicly they will not accept 
election results if the other side is declared winner; 3) the 
number of internally displaced persons is alarmingly on the 
rise.  Membe told Ambassador Green that the leaders of the 
Troika of SADC's Organ of Defence, Politics and Security 
(Angola, Swaziland and Tanzania) would meet June 21 or 22 in 
Luanda to discuss how SADC should respond.  End summary. 
 
SADC Foreign Ministers Shaken by Reports of Violence 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶2. (SBU) After the Ambassador attempted for two days to reach 
Minister Bernard Membe in Malawi to deliver reftel demarche 
(Ref B), Membe phoned the Ambassador less than an hour after 
stepping off his plane from Malawi.  Membe did not have an 
immediate comment on whether the African Union (AU) would 
move quickly to sign a MOU with the United Nations to support 
the AU observation teams.  Speaking slowly and sounding 
"shaken", he gave the Ambassador a sobering report on what 
the Foreign Ministers who met in Malawi had learned from SADC 
observers already on the ground in Zimbabwe. 
 
¶3. (U) Membe reported as of June 19, a total of 211 SADC 
observers are in Zimbabwe:  77 South Africans, 49 Tanzanians, 
and 50 from Botswana are the largest contingents.  By 
Saturday, June 21, there will be 350 observers in place; 
before June 27, the SADC observers will total 380.  According 
to Membe, the African Union (AU) wanted to send an equally 
large number of observers, but the Mugabe government is only 
allowing 70 AU observers. 
 
¶4. (U) The observers in Zimbabwe are reporting back to the 
SADC Secretariat that: 
 
  -- the level of violence by military and militia, including 
shooting civilians in front of the observers, is unacceptable; 
  -- the jailing and continuing harassment of opposition 
leaders, particularly Morgan Tsvangirai, who is detained 
frequently, for hours at a time on trumped up charges, 
restricting his movements and ability to campaign. 
  -- the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) is 
increasing daily; the stadium in Harare is already serving as 
shelter for 350 IDPs. 
 
¶5. (SBU) As a result, the Foreign Ministers at the Malawi 
meeting had serious concerns that the June 27 runoff 
elections in Zimbabwe should proceed at all.  As next steps, 
they agreed to brief their respective Heads of State and 
suggested that the Troika presidents consult informally with 
one another over the next few days.  Agreement was also 
reached to recommend calling a meeting of the Troika of the 
Organ of Defence, Politics and Security this weekend in 
Angola. 
 
Request to the West:  Keep Up the Pressure 
------------------------------------------ 
¶6. (SBU) Minister Membe asked the Ambassador that "the West 
find a way to create a credible perception" that if Mugabe 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000382  002 OF 003 
 
 
does not immediately cease and desist with the violence, 
killings and intimidation, there will be serious consequences 
for Robert Mugabe and his government.  While Membe left open 
what those consequences might be, he told Ambassador Green 
that the FMs agreed in Malawi unless there is an immediate 
and drastic change in actions and attitude of the Mugabe 
government "there cannot be free and fair elections on June 
27." 
 
Membe to the Press 
----------------- 
¶7. (U) Minister Membe told journalists June 19 that SADC is 
deeply concerned that the Mugabe government is allowing the 
violence to escalate and Zimbabwe citizens are openly being 
shot by military and militia.  The opposition candidates and 
party leaders have been jailed, arrested, and harassed daily, 
preventing them from carrying out a campaign.  Mugabe has 
openly stated that he would not accept election results 
unless his party wins: "If the opposition wins, there will be 
war."  The opposition MDC has also countered if the Mugabe's 
ZANU-PF party wins, they will not accept the results.  In 
addition, the Mugabe government has refused any non-Africans 
to be observers, and has significantly cut down the number of 
African Union member observers to only 70 persons who will be 
allowed to monitor the elections. 
 
¶8. (U) Membe stated the SADC Troika countries sent a message 
to President Mugabe to stop the violence, to let all 
observers deploy throughout the country,  and to assure the 
safety of all SADC and AU observers.  President Kikwete, as 
the AU Chairman, sent an even stronger message:  the GOZ must 
halt violence and intimidation; all sides should cease from 
making irresponsible statements; all parties must be allowed 
to campaign; and all sides must accept the election results 
once released. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Minister Membe stressed that apart from President 
Kikwete's roles in SADC and AU, the nation of Tanzania is 
shocked at what is happening in Zimbabwe.  Although Mugabe 
and the leaders of Tanzania were historically friends, "we 
are now at odds on issues of governance.  Tanzania will not 
support the Government of Zimbabwe wanting to win at all 
costs irrespective of the will of its people and the results 
at the polls," he declared. 
 
¶10. (U) In response to inquiries from Tanzanian journalists, 
Membe explained as a result of the June 17-18 Malawi meeting, 
the Troika of Angola, Swaziland and Tanzania had sent a 
report to all SADC leaders.  SADC must then decide whether to 
forward the report the African Union or not.  To an inquiry 
on why after being quiet for so long, some SADC countries are 
speaking out about the Mugabe regime:  "There is imminent 
violence, potentially worse than what took place in Kenya," 
he said. 
 
¶11. (U) Minister Membe noted that perhaps former leadership 
in the SADC and AU did not try as hard, but "President 
Kikwete is now the AU Chairman and he wants to assist the 
people of Zimbabwe; he needs to be given credit for that 
stance."  Membe said President Kikwete took the lead by 
sending 50 Tanzanian observers to Zimbabwe, the maximum the 
GOZ would allow.  Also, Kikwete has requested the AU 
Commission on Peace and Security to give a full report during 
the upcoming AU Summit in Sharm el-Sheik Egypt the last week 
of June. 
 
Comment: Time for Words is Past 
------------------------------- 
¶12. (SBU) Tanzania is beginning to raise its voice against 
the impunity of Mugabe's government with Membe telling 
journalists in Dar es Salaam June 19 that SADC observers are 
witnessing unmitigated violence, including the murder of 
innocent Zimbabwe citizens.  Yet, how far President Kikwete 
will push SADC and AU leaders to take a stand and condemn the 
actions of the Government of Zimbabwe remains to be seen.  In 
both his phone conversation with Ambassador Green and during 
 
DAR ES SAL 00000382  003 OF 003 
 
 
the press conference, Bernard Membe appeared somber and 
disheartened, lacking his usual enthusiasm.  Although both 
Kikwete and he have been saying the right words to us about 
Zimbabwe for the last six months, Membe may finally be 
realizing that the time for decisions, touch choices and 
action has come.  If Tanzania is serious, then now is the 
time is convince a majority of African leaders during the 
upcoming SADC Troika meeting and at the AU summit in Sharm 
el-Sheikh (June 24-30) that the Mugabe regime must be 
condemned for destroying free and fair elections.  Even 
further, a recommendation that new Zimbabwe elections be 
called that would be run and overseen by international 
monitors, would be a courageous and historic step.  Tanzania, 
SADC and the AU leaders must stand up and say "No more!"  The 
people of Zimbabwe deserve no less. 
 
Text of Minister Membe's June 19 Press Statement 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶13. (U) Begin Text:  "The ministerial meeting of the SADC 
Organ of Defence, Politics and Security was held in Lilongwe, 
Malawi on June 17, 2008 under the chairmanship of the 
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Angola, Joao 
Bernardo de Miranda. 
 
The Tanzanian Minster of Foreign Affairs, Bernard Membe, 
represented Tanzania.  The Government of Swaziland was 
represented by the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of 
Defense, Dr. John Kunene.  Other officials from Tanzania and 
Angola took part.  The SADC Executive Secretary, Dr. Tomaz 
Salomao, also attended the meeting. 
 
The meeting focused on the political situation and conflict 
in Zimbabwe.  The Ministers received a report on Zimbabwe 
from Dr. Salomao, who had visited Zimbabwe from June 14 to 
¶17.  He spoke about the political, economic and security 
situation in Zimbabwe as it prepares for the runoff 
presidential elections. 
 
The three Ministers of the SADC Troika Organ of Defence, 
Politics and Security discussed the Zimbabwe conflict in 
depth.  They were discouraged over the ongoing violence and 
asked the Government of Zimbabwe to stop the violence in 
order to create an environment conducive for free and fair 
elections.  The Ministers also asked both the Mugabe 
government and the opposition to consider the welfare of the 
citizens of Zimbabwe who had suffered economically and were 
now dying. 
 
The Ministers proposed to the Chairman of the SADC Organ of 
Defence, Politics and Security to call an emergency meeting 
of the leaders of the SADC countries and governments in order 
to agree and give a joint statement on the situation in 
Zimbabwe."     End Text. 
GREEN